Market Outlook #2

Market Outlook #2 (17th September 2018)

So, for the second Market Outlook post, we will be looking at Bitcoin (as always), with an update on Monero and Ethereum from last week’s Market Outlook, and then introducing three smaller coins that I am rather bullish on for any potential alt-season (Ethereum-led or otherwise). These are Covesting, which is one of only three ICOs that I have ever invested in; Gridcoin, which is an old-school PoW research coin; and Blackcoin, which is the first ever staking coin, and one that I published a rich-list case study on a couple of months back.

For these Market Outlook posts, I will generally be providing updates on the big three (in my eyes, at least): Bitcoin; Monero; Ethereum. Bitcoin is a constant, but Monero and Ethereum have only crossed my radar as buy-worthy following their 80%+ tumbles from their respective highs. As such, I believe accumulating both at present will be profitable in the long run. Following updates on these, each week I think I’ll provide updates on two or three smaller projects. Last week’s were Ardor and Stratis, both of which are lingering where they were, give or take 5%.

Also, for each coin, I may choose to include both BTC and USD-denominated charts, or only one of the two; same goes for whether weekly and daily charts are included or only one. This will be down to whether there is actually anything interesting going on in those charts that I feel needs bringing to your attention.

Finally, I’d like to stress that the time-scale I work on is extensive; six months at minimum. Though these posts are and will continue to be a weekly feature, that is primarily to remain informed.

Anyways, enough of that. Let’s start with BTC.

Bitcoin:

Price: $6468

Market Cap: $112.24bn

Thoughts: My thoughts on Bitcoin have changed little from last week. The only thing that I was happy to see was another rejection from closing the weekly below $6000. This is the fifth weekly rejection from that level, which could be a promising sign if it is followed by a high-volume higher-high forming above $7500 in the coming weeks. Of course, we could see price break down again this week and lose the higher-low that has been formed on the daily, which would indicate a potential loss of the $6k level altogether.


Monero:

XMR/USD


XMR/BTC

Price: $115.81 (0.0178 BTC)

Market Cap: $1.97bn (293,342 BTC)

Thoughts: My bullish stance on Monero has been strengthened by the previous week’s price-action. We have seen a successful retest of the breakout level, with higher lows on both XMR/BTC and XMR/USD. The only thing lacking right now seems to be the volume, but market structure continues to point to the upside. I believe we’ll see another test of the ~$150 resistance level this coming week, and, given the current price-action, I’d be surprised if it didn’t finally give way.


Ethereum:

ETH/USD

ETH/BTC

Price: $215.64 (0.0333BTC)

Market Cap: $22.092bn (3,415,137 BTC)

Thoughts: Ethereum is looking super interesting around here. Last week saw a high-volume bounce from long-term support zones in both USD and BTC. In fact, last week closed green on the highest volume in 18 months. That is a very bullish sign, though we remain below the long-term trendline resistance in USD. ETH/BTC looks primed for a move first to 0.036 and then to test the 0.04 resistance. I’d like to see a higher low form on the daily chart this week.


Covesting:

COV/BTC

Price: $0.77 (0.00011934 BTC)

Market Cap:$13.49mn (2,088 BTC)

Thoughts: Covesting is one of only three ICOs I have ever participated in, and it has very little price-history but great market structure. An area of heavy resistance around 12000 satoshis seems to have become strong support. Price is also forming a double-bottom within this support zone. I am expecting a breakout of the trendline resistance on volume in the next two weeks, given that the swing-low at 10k satoshis holds firm.


Gridcoin:

GRC/BTC

Price: $0.019 (297 satoshis)

Market Cap: $7.42mn (1,146 BTC)

Thoughts: Gridcoin is currently sitting with its long-term accumulation zone, between 200 and 500 satoshis. Its all-time low is 198 satoshis, and the recent volume spikes, along with the flattening out of recent price-action, presents a very high reward-to-risk opportunity. I am currently accumulating in anticipation of a break of the first trendline resistance. I would like to see the lows around 270 satoshis hold, though I am happy to be underwater as long as a new all-time low does not form. That would be the point at which the bag is cut. Whilst price remains within this long-term range, I am happy to buy.


Blackcoin:

BLK/USD

BLK/BTC

Price: $0.087 (1301 satoshis)

Market Cap: $6.68mn (1,031 BTC)

Thoughts: I really like how Blackcoin currently looks on both its USD and BTC charts. BLK/USD has formed a low and seems to have bottomed out at the resistance level of its 2-year long accumulation range. This would be an ideal area for a new level of support to form. BLK/BTC is sitting above its all-time low of 1000 satoshis. An accumulation range seems to have formed around this level, between 1000 and 1400 satoshis. The 9-month downtrend also seems to have occurred on almost zero volume, indicating that large holders are not selling. This is something I also spotted in my rich-list case study of Blackcoin. Trendline resistance has been broken on the daily, with short-term resistance sitting around 1750 satoshis; a level I think will be breached in the coming weeks if this current range holds.

That’s the second Market Outlook post done and dusted. Let me know if you’re finding these posts useful and feel free to leave any questions in the Comments.


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8 thoughts on “Market Outlook #2”

  1. Hey Nik,
    How does a bearish BTCUSD prediction affects your alt portfolio?
    Are you going to accumulate no matter what or are you going to stay on the side line for the drop?

      1. Depending on the alt, I’ll either take a fixed-risk position where I will ride it out no matter what, or I will have soft stops in place based on higher time-frame levels. For example, GRC, which just got delisted by Polo, is currently trading on Bittrex a little below the previous all-time low that I had marked out on the chart in the post. I’ll be monitoring its price-action and orderbook over the next 24 hours before deciding whether to cut the position or hold on.

        As for BTC, I don’t tend to let Bitcoin influence my alt approach. The relationship between BTC and alts is unpredictable; often both rise and fall together, but sometimes it can also switch to inverse on a dime. I use alt/btc and alt/usd charts and FA to determine my moves.

  2. Thanks, as usual !!

    One question: do you look at FA as well for those coins ? Or mostly TA? BLK seems so much like “just another coin” that’s why I’m asking.

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