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Market Outlook #197

Market Outlook #197 (30th October 2022)

Hello, and welcome to the 197th instalment of my Market Outlook.

In this week’s post, I will be covering Bitcoin, Ethereum, BNB, Solana, Uniswap, Chainlink, Chiliz and Vulcan Forged.

As ever, if you have any requests for next week’s Outlook, do let me know.






Price: $20,613

Market Cap: $395.652bn

Thoughts: If we begin by looking at BTC/USD on the weekly timeframe, we can see that price is set to close the week out above local trendline resistance on higher volume than the previous week, marginally above resistance at $20.5k. This was the relief we have been expecting to see and given how equities closed last week and how BTC is shaping up at the close, I don’t think we are quite done yet. I mentioned last week that if price closed above $20.5k, that would open up a retest of the $21.8k resistance, which is the next level I am eyeing up here and where I would expect price to gravitate towards, as long as it can now hold above the $20.3-20.5k zone early next week.

If we drop into the daily, we can see why this zone is critical, as it was double top resistance prior to the breakout, price then deviated back below the $20.5k level and then reclaimed it and retested $21k resistance, around which it is now consolidating. We do have some minor divergence here and declining volume, but I am not overly concerned about this whilst we remain above $20.3-20.5k. Lose that zone and reclaim it as resistance and this looks like a deviation, from which I would expect price to retrace towards the $19.4k area. If we start to close the daily above $21.1k next week, we likely squeeze to fill the gap all the way into $21.8k, where there is much more overhead resistance and where I will be exiting my long exposure and awaiting either a clean break and consolidation above $22.4k to re-enter longs targeting the 200dMA at $24.7k, or look for shorts back towards $20.5k.












Price: $1584 (0.07682 BTC)

Market Cap: $193.570bn

Thoughts: If we begin by looking at ETH/USD on the weekly timeframe, we can see that the pair outperformed last week, now looking to close the week out above trendline resistance, prior cycle highs and minor support turned resistance at $1560, all on significantly higher volume than recent weeks, which is a good sign. If we do get a dip next week, $1416 is key to remain above, otherwise this looks like another lower high and price would lose the 200wMA, from which point shorts become favourable towards $1000. Dropping into the daily, we can see that the 200dMA is just overhead at $1700, which is also around key historical support turned resistance, so bulls should be wary of the overhead resistance coming into play. I would expect to see $1560 hold as support early next week if BTC continues to hold above $20.5k and we likely push into that resistance cluster from there. If we start to break back below $1560, I would expect that deeper retracement into $1416, which is a long opportunity in my opinion with a clear invalidation.

Turning to ETH/BTC, we are set to reclaim the weekly market structure break at 0.072 as support, which is really impressive and not something I was expecting, hence my positioning in BTC over ETH. Nonetheless, this show of strength has firmly reclaimed multiple levels of support as price is set to close around 0.077, and if we do dip back into 0.072 next week, that would likely align with that $1415-20 are on the dollar pair and we could look for confluence for longs. As long as the pair now hold above that level, I think we push higher again back into the 2022 open and potentially beyond. Looking at the daily, I have marked out how this might play out, with a higher-low above 0.072 leading to a retest of range resistance at 0.0822, or a loss of 0.072 following this rally confirming a lower-high and leading to that leg lower into 0.0594. Very clean structure here.












Price: $313.69 (0.01525 BTC)

Market Cap: $50.28bn

Thoughts: Beginning with BNB/USD, we can see from the weekly that price is set to close the week right back around support turned resistance at $317, having bounced off the weekly open and rallied throughout the week. Despite this rally, we are still range-bound between $254 and $317, as price has been for weeks, so bulls want to see a clean break and consolidation above $317 to really open up further upside, as we would then have a macro higher-high following the trendline breakout and higher-low from September. Dropping into the daily, we can see that price has now reclaimed the 200dMA which had capped price since the beginning of the year, and I would be looking for longs around $300 if we get a dip early next week, with invalidation on a close back below $290 on the daily, looking for $337 as a first target. If price can close above that level, there is no resistance back into the 360dMA at $371.

Turning to BNB/BTC, we can see that a new all-time high formed this week at 0.01521, which shows the continued strength of the pair and we would now expect further price discovery next week, with the 0.016 area of key interest. If we look at the daily for more clarity, we can see that 0.016 also aligns with the 100% extension of the current uptrend, and bulls want to see price now consolidate above 0.0149 as resistance turned support in order to improve the probability of a squeeze into that higher target. Beyond 0.016, there is only a technical level at 0.0171 which may mark out resistance if this really gets moving. If, instead, bulls show weakness next week and price breaks back below 0.0149 and retests it as resistance, we may have a deviation of an all-time high and potentially see a retracement back towards the support base at 0.01385.












Price: $32.12 (0.00156 BTC)

Market Cap: $11.539bn

Thoughts: If we begin by looking at SOL/USD, we can see on the weekly that price is still very much just chopping around above the June lows, with the pair rallying this week o reclaim minor support at $30, having wicked lower last week to retest $26. Bulls now want to see this double bottom at $26 hold and price to push back above $35.60 as resistance, above which I would be looking to play the range higher towards $47 to retest that lower-high. Dropping into the daily, we can also see that the 200dMA is sitting just below $45, providing confluence for a resistance area for longs. If we see the daily start to close above $35.60, I will be looking for longs intraweek. Unless we break and close below $26 from here, I am not comfortable looking for shorts until we get up towards the resistance cluster above $43.

Turning to SOL/BTC, we can see on the weekly timeframe that price is hovering above prior resistance at 0.00137, with price breaking back above lost support from last week at 0.00152. This is still mostly just chop to be honest with no clear direction, and despite the rally this week we are now pushing right up  against support turned resistance at 0.00162. If we do clear this level, however, we have a good 10% of upside with no resistance into 0.018, and any break and consolidation above that 200dMA opens up another 10-15% of upside from there, so getting through 0.0016 here is key for more relief. If however we reject here and begin to break back below 0.00152, I would expect to see the 0.00137 support retested. Nothing too clear here for me, unfortunately…












Price: $6.90 (33.460 satoshis)

Market Cap: $5.258bn

Thoughts: Beginning with UNI/USD, we can see on the weekly that price has broken back above minor resistance at $6.77 having formed another higher-low above $5.65. The structure here is beginning to point to further upside and though we are now sat right up against resistance at $7.42, if we can close the weekly above $6.77, I think we clear this resistance and begin to move towards the next major level up near long-term trendline resistance around $9, and I am keen to look for longs within this range. If we drop into the daily, we have broken back above the 200dMA, having deviated above it briefly before retracing a couple of months ago. I am actually keen to long any dip early next week into the 200dMA at $6.50 if we get it, with a view to add to my exposure above $7.42, with invalidation below $5.65 and looking for $8.80.

Turning to UNI/BTC, we are sat right below support turned resistance at 34.8k satoshis, which has capped the pair for a few weeks now, but we remain above reclaimed support at 29.4k. This is the range at present, and whilst we remain within it there is no clear read on trajectory. However, given how the dollar pair looks, I am leaning towards a breakout to the upside next week beyond 34.8k, from which the next resistance becomes 41.4k satoshis, where price rejected in late July. Any close above that level makes it look like we have begun a new cycle, in my opinion, as we have an extended rally from the June low through trendline resistance, consolidation above reclaimed support and the formation of a higher-low, followed by a higher-high beyond 41.4k… in that scenario, it’s BTFD until it stops working.












Price: $7.65 (37,201 satoshis)

Market Cap: $3.768bn

Thoughts: Looking firstly at LINK/USD, we can see from the weekly that the pair has been consolidating between the May-June lows and resistance at $9.75 for months now, with much of that consolidation occurring in an even tighter range between $6.17 as support and $8.26 as resistance. If we can clear the top end of that resistance and close the weekly above $8.26, I think longs for another 20% of upside towards $10 make sense to me, looking to hedge exposure up in that area with a view to re-enter if we can close above, with the next resistance at the 200wMA ~$11.80, with prior support above that at $13.30. If we drop into the daily, we can see that price is pushing up against the 200dMA here, which has capped the pair for all of 2022 pretty much, so closing above that and retesting it as support would make a good case for further upside. Not looking for any downside unless we deviate above $8.26 and then break back below the 200dMA, in which case I would look for shorts back towards $6.16.

Turning to LINK/BTC, we can see that price is now consolidating above reclaimed support at 34.6k satoshis, having trended higher since the 20.8k low formed. We remain below long-term trendline resistance and the 200wMA, but this looks like it is coiling for a breakout through that overhead resistance. We have clean invalidation here for long exposure, as price should not close back below 33k if this structure is to hold true, and any weekly close through 45k satoshis is a signal to add more in my opinion, with the next resistance another 25-30% higher from there into 56k satoshis.












Price: $0.224 (1086 satoshis)

Market Cap: $1.345bn

Thoughts: Beginning with CHZ/USD, we can see that price has reclaimed long term support at $0.15, having capitulated below it in May and then reclaimed it a couple of months later. I think it is very likely the cyclical bottom is in for the pair, as long as we now hold above $0.15; lose that level and I think we retest the lows, but right now this just looks like consolidation above key support before continued upside. This week has seen the pair bounce into resistance at $0.23, where if we can close the weekly above I would expect to see $0.27 resistance taken out and price continue this trend higher into support turned resistance at $0.32. Dropping into the daily, we can see that price is also breaking back above the 360dMA, having retested the 200dMA as support, and I would expect to see a higher-low now form above $0.21, which would be a dip-buying opportunity with a target of $0.27.

Turning to CHZ/BTC, we can see that price almost returned to all-time highs a few weeks ago, having rallied for months off the May lows until the final resistance below the ATH stopped the pair at 1380 satoshis. Price then retraced back into support around 950 satoshis, which continues to hold, with some minor reclaimed resistance now facing the pair around 1073 satoshis. I would expect this level to be cleared firmly next week and price to then form a higher-low above it on the daily, leading to another test of 1232 satoshis as resistance, where long exposure should likely be hedged and re-opened on a clean break above, which would open up that 1500-satoshi level and likely the all-time high beyond that.

Vulcan Forged:











Price: $4.72 (22,910 satoshis)

Market Cap: $112.558mn

Thoughts: Beginning with PYR/USD, we can see from the weekly that price has been consolidating for 168 days above range support at $2.80, with range resistance at $5.26 continuing to cap the pair. This looks very much like a re-accumulation range to me following the 95% drawdown from the all-time high, and if we can close above $5.27 on the weekly, I think we begin to see disbelief kick in, with resistance at $6.85 then the only obstacle before real fireworks could begin, with no major resistance all the way back into $16 from there. Looking at the daily, we appear to have wicked into range resistance and rejected, also rejecting a 200dMA breakout on this first attempt. I would be keen to buy a dip back into $4.40 in anticipation of another attempt at a breakout with a very tight invalidation at ~$3.80. If we then clear $5.27, I would look to add long exposure and hedge around $6.85. If this is just another rejection of the range and we fall back below recent lows, I would be looking to rebuy the bottom of the range around $3.

Turning to PYR/BTC, this pair is looking ready for fireworks, having broken back above resistance turned support at 19.8k satoshis that capped the pair for most of summer, with that level firmly holding as support for a month now. Price has minor resistance at 23.8k, which is proving troublesome at present, but any weekly close above that level and I think this begins to fly towards reclaimed resistance at 38.5k satoshis as the next major level overhead. Dropping into the daily, we are trapped between the 200dMA as support and the 360dMA as resistance and thus we have a really clean invalidation level for longs – lose the 200dMA and its time to exit. If we dip from this resistance early next week into 20k satoshis, I would be very keen to get involved…

And that concludes this week’s Market Outlook.

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