Market Outlook #19 (20th January 2019)
Hello, and welcome to the 19th Market Outlook. Unlike in last week’s post, where we had a lot to talk about, this past week has seen the market as a whole in consolidation. That being said, there is some interesting action taking place on the 4-hour timeframe, so much of this Market Outlook is focused on that.
As usual, I’ll be covering Bitcoin, Ethereum and Monero, and concluding the post with a look at a couple of altcoins: namely, Ark and HyperSpace. Let’s crack on:
Market Cap: $65.269bn
Thoughts: Bitcoin, despite moving within a limited range for the past week, is in a very interesting position. I have depicted a bullish and bearish scenario for price-action moving forward, though I am leaning more towards the bullish scenario for reasons that will become obvious.
In the bullish scenario, the first chart I’ve printed is a rarity; as regular readers will know, I don’t often use indicators, but the 200 MA is one of significance, and the Weekly 200 MA has been respected by Bitcoin since before 2014. We can only see the moving average up until the summer of 2015, as there is not enough data to see further back, but BTC/USD has pretty much always trailed above this average. We can also see that the dump to new lows from back at $6k found its bottom exactly where the Weekly 200 MA resides. In 2015, when price reached this moving average, it began its slow but clear reversal.
Now, looking at the Daily, we can see that price remains above the prior resistance turned support. It has consolidated in a tight range over the past week, and the 4H depicts the stop run that led to market structure being broken to the upside at the beginning of the week. Further, we can see that there is a double top waiting at ~$4200, and price is continuing to make a series of higher-highs and higher-lows. If this bullish scenario is to play out, I’d anticipate a dump back below $3700 before a swift rejection and new highs above $3900, leading to that double top being taken out.
In the bearish scenario, the Daily shows price trading up into a bearish orderblock and forming lower-highs and lower-lows from this point. Price then dumped below ~$3900 last week, before consolidating this past week. The 4H shows the potential mechanics of this bearish scenario, with the uptrend being broken after the triple top was swept at $4100. This was a shift to bearish market structure, and price recently traded up towards the 4H breaker. From here, I would anticipate that wick to be swept before new lows below $3550 are made, eventually targeting $3200.
Price: $124.35 (0.03328 BTC)
Market Cap: $12.991bn (3,477,392 BTC)
Thoughts: ETH/BTC broke above the short-term trendline resistance on significant volume at the beginning of the week, and has since consolidated in a range between 0.033 BTC and 0.034 BTC. There’s not all that much to say here given the lack of price-action of late, but last week’s scenario is one that I am still confident in, with this consoldation proving but a period of respite before new highs are attempted.
Price: $46.15 (0.01235 BTC)
Market Cap: $772.324bn (206,811 BTC)
Thoughts: Monero is in a world of its own at the moment with how little it is giving away as to its direction moving forward. Higher-lows are being met by lower-highs, in an ever-contracting range. There is liquidity both to the upside and the downside, as the vast majority of these swing-low-and-highs remain intact. Trendline support has become resistance, but price is trailing very close to it and has not rejected in the manner that it usually would from a level of resistance. To return to bullish market structure, price must reclaim both the trendline resistance and the prior support turned resistance just below 0.013 BTC.
Price: $0.43 (11512 satoshis)
Market Cap: $46.346mn (12,411 BTC)
Thoughts: Ark looks like its forming a beautiful cyclical low in this range between 9000 and 13000 satoshis. There are numerous high-volume buyups taking place, and higher swing-lows are forming on the Daily. I expect this range to last a little while longer before price breaks out above 13k and confirms a reversal. The next resistance level would be 19k satoshis – a level of prior support from July 2018.
Price: $0.019 (498 satoshis)
Market Cap: $1.87mn (502 BTC)
Thoughts: HyperSpace has some fundamental reasoning behind its unsually high-volume buyups, with its recent rebrand from Synereo and the beta launch of its content-sharing platform imminent; one which will reward content creators with AMP. Over the past month, AMP has seen over 20% of its circulating supply be traded, and market structure is beautifully clean for such a small coin. Prior range supports have become more recent range resistance, and there’s even a capitulation wick preceding the massive buyups. I can’t make an accurate guess as to when AMP will reverse and break out above 750 satoshis, but I expect this to have an explosive pump when it does.
That concludes this 19th Market Outlook. I hope you’ve found it somewhat useful. Please feel free to leave any comments or questions below and I’ll answer them as best I can!
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