Market Outlook #169 (4th April 2022)
Hello, and welcome to the 169th instalment of my Market Outlook.
In this week’s post, I will be covering Bitcoin, Ethereum, Solana, XRP, Fantom, Tezos, Ankr, Celer Network and Utrust.
As ever, if you have any requests for next Monday’s Outlook, do let me know.
Bitcoin:
Weekly:
Daily:
Price: $46,163
Market Cap: $876.690bn
Thoughts: If we begin by looking at BTC/USD on the weekly timeframe, we can see that last week saw price wick beyond the prior weekly high into $48240, as well as retest the $44.6k resistance as support, before eventually closing right back near the weekly open and the yearly open around $46.2k. Following those previous two weekly expansion candles, consolidation right around an important cluster of resistance is expected, but this week’s movement is now key in determining short-term trajectory for the pair. We have already retested key resistance as support at $44.5k, so that level should now hold if it is retested this week, with any close back below that level confirming a failed breakout beyond this resistance cluster and thus likely leading to a retrace back to at least $42.1k to potentially form a higher-low. However, if $44.5k does hold this week and we can start pushing up through the mid-range at $46.9k again, I would expect to see trend continuation towards the double top at $52.1k over the next couple of weeks.
If we drop into the daily, we can see that price rallied through that resistance cluster above $44.5k, pushing up through the yearly open into the 200dMA, where it found resistance, then offering a (somewhat suspect) perfect retest of the breakout level late last week before now climbing back above both $45.8k resistance and the 360dMA and consolidating right around that yearly open. Bulls would want to see continuation from here given the important of the breakout zone – failure after an immediate rejection from above the yearly open would look pretty poor from a momentum point of view, although structure would still look bullish unless we start to close back inside the $42k prior range resistance area. If we do see that demand step in and the rally moves forward, I am looking for any intraday dips to long above the 200dMA targeting that double top at $52.1k. If, however, we break and close below $44.5k, I will be looking for intraweek shorts back into $42k.
Ethereum:
ETH/USD
Weekly:
Daily:
ETH/BTC
Weekly:
Daily:
Price: $3,493.90 (0.07577 BTC)
Market Cap: $419.431bn
Thoughts: Beginning with ETH/USD, we can see from the weekly that price pushed on last week where BTC/USD could not, adding a third consecutive weekly rally and closing at weekly highs above $3500. This is a good show of strength from ETH, but we are now pressing right up against that major resistance cluster, with prior support at $3580 and the yearly open just beyond that, so if the pair was to take a breather, it would be right around here, where those looking to play the short side would be wise to wait for a lower timeframe breakdown from up above last week’s high to get involved for a move down potentially as far as the $3k breakout region to form a higher low. Now, there is a possibility we don’t reject up here on the first attempt and instead clear the yearly open without any fuss, in which case I will be hammering the ask on a retest of $3950 given that we have seen no dip really since below $2850. For those looking for swing-longs, the case for that would be if we do pull-back somewhere near that $3000 area, likely front-running it, from which point I would expect another test and possible breakout beyond $3675. The structure on the weekly has indeed changed and so any expectations of significant downside are diminished, unless of course this entire three-week rally is retraced, at which point this looks like a dead cat and we have a lot more bloodshed to come in 2022. Looking briefly at the daily, we can see that price is also pressing right up against the 200dMA and RSI is starting to print some bearish divergence lending confluence to the likelihood of some manner of pull-back from resistance. Areas of interest for a long would be a sweep of that recent low into the 360dMA right around $3180, layering bids into $3k and invalidating on a breakdown back below mid-range.
Turning to ETH/BTC, we can see where the strength was last week, with price finally expanding following a tight consolidating, breaking back above both recent trendline resistance and firmly through the lower-highs around 0.0733, closing up near weekly highs at 0.0759. This is promising for ETH and certainly adds to the case to be long the dollar pair on a pull-back, but where we are sitting right now is the level that capped weekly closes on multiple attempts before the 2021 high breakout and subsequent correction. Retesting this 0.077 area from below after a deviation above is a possible higher timeframe short setup, so bulls should be super cautious about getting involved right here. What you want to see is a clean break and close back through the level to confirm it is no longer resistance, at which point the move from 0.0594 into the 2021 high and back into 0.064 looks like a higher-low within a trend higher rather than a deviation above range resistance, in my opinion.
Solana:
SOL/USD
Weekly:
Daily:
SOL/BTC
Weekly:
Daily:
Price: $136.46 (0.002958 BTC)
Market Cap: $44.461bn
Thoughts: Looking firstly at SOL/USD, on the weekly we can see that our rally expectations came to fruition (and then some), with the pair rallying back above the September low and support turned resistance at $114, through trendline resistance and up into the $148 prior support area, before closing near $137. This is a good show of strength from SOL and weekly structure is now bullish following the close above the lower high at $122. If we look at the daily for clarity, we can see the reclaim of the $114 low leading to expansion beyond the cluster of resistance between $122 and $129 into the 200dMA and prior support at $148, below which price rejected. If we pull back this week towards that breakout range between $114 and $122, that’s an area I would want to get long within depending on how things set up, as invalidation for me would be a close and breakdown back below the $104 area (and thus back below the trendline too). I would be looking for a push back towards the mid-range of that September to November rally, with the period of trading below it looking like re-accumulation if we can hold above that 360dMA area.
Turning to SOL/BTC, again we can see the strength following the flat consolidation below the range, with price reclaiming range support at 0.00235 and rallying all the way into reclaimed resistance around 0.003. Again, the daily is clearer here, but from the weekly we can see that the move below the range looks like a deviation at the moment given the strength of the rally back through it, and if we drop into that daily timeframe we can see that price is now pressing up against the 200dMA. I would not be surprised to see some sort of pull-back from here into perhaps the 0.00274 area, but as long as SOL now holds above reclaimed range support at 0.00235 I think it looks bullish, with 0.0033-0.0035 the next major resistance cluster.
XRP:
XRP/USD
Weekly:
Daily:
XRP/BTC
Weekly:
Daily:
Price: $0.83 (1799 satoshis)
Market Cap: $39.886bn
Thoughts: Looking at XRP/USD, on the weekly timeframe we can see that the pair is consolidating up against that trendline resistance, pushing into prior support turned resistance around $0.92 but failing to close beyond both key resistances. There isn’t a great deal of momentum for the pair here but if it can now push on through $0.92 on good volume and close through it, weekly structure becomes bullish and there is a nice range to play longs back into resistance around $1.12. If it fails here and close back below $0.77, I would be looking for shorts next week to hold for a retest of the $0.65 reclaimed support. Dropping into the daily, we can see that overhead resistance is bolstered by both the 200dMA and 360dMA, so this $0.92 level is very much critical and any acceptance above it would be transformative for both momentum and structure. That is also why one could take a short right around this area with invalidation on a close above the cluster, but with support at $0.77 just below I don’t think the risk/reward is as great as shorting a breakdown back below $0.77.
Turning to XRP/BTC, not much has changed here as we have been range-bound between support at 1730 and resistance at 2100 satoshis for a couple of months now. Below, we have more historical support down towards 1500 satoshis and above key resistance at 2250, so this is just chop city for me and outside of any independent dollar pair setups, I would not be looking for much out of XRP here. If we close the weekly above or below these key areas, the ranges open up significantly and we can look for much more downside if 1500 fails, or potentially 30% of upside into major resistance if 2250 gives way. Not much else to add beyond that.
Fantom:
FTM/USD
Weekly:
Daily:
FTM/BTC
Weekly:
Daily:
Price: $1.58 (3437 satoshis)
Market Cap: $4.027bn
Thoughts: Beginning with FTM/USD, we can see on the weekly that the pair traded back into historical resistance turned support around $1.03 a few weeks ago before rallying off that level and pushing back above $1.48, but weekly structure is still bearish and price is still just range-bound and trading well below the mid-range. Given the push off from the base of the range, if we did get a pull-back into reclaimed minor support around the 360dMA at $1.31 – as can be seen more clearly on the daily – that might make for a nice long entry for a retest of reclaimed resistance and the 200dMA at $1.96, but if we just look at the structure and price-action here, there is really very little momentum, with price just being dragged up slowly with the rest of the market. If we got anywhere near that $1.96-$2.52 region, I would be looking to build longer-term shorts in there for another test of $1 and potentially a breakdown from this range. The invalidation on that would be super tight also, as any weekly close above the mid-range would invalidate this for me and look more like we were in for a retest of range resistance around the all-time high.
If we look at the BTC pair, we can see that actually momentum indicators on the weekly timeframe are mixed, with bearish divergence on RSI but not on AO, but RSI was clearly correct given the extent of the correction we saw from that push to all-time highs, with price retracing the entire rally back into support around 2600 satoshis a couple of weeks ago (no doubt exacerbated by extenuating circumstances). That said, retracing that entire rally looks weak to me, particularly where other large-caps have been forming higher-lows across pairs, and so I would not be keen to buy the loser over the winners here, despite fundamentally liking Fantom more than some of the others. The market is clearly showing a lack of demand here and there is significant resistance overhead into the 4200-4700 satoshi region. Right now, we’re just making lower highs into support that has been tested multiple times.
Tezos:
XTZ/USD
Weekly:
Daily:
XTZ/BTC
Weekly:
Daily:
Price: $3.95 (8542 satoshis)
Market Cap: $3.505bn
Thoughts: Beginning with XTZ/USD on the weekly timeframe, we can see that price has rallied off the double bottom at $2.53, breaking back above prior resistance at $2.96 and continuing higher over the past three weeks through trendline resistance and right into reclaimed resistance around $4.20. The double bottom above $2.53 also marked a macro higher-low in Tezos’ long-term uptrend, but we are now pushing up against that trendline support as resistance as well as historical resistance into $4.52. This is where I would expect to see rejection occur on the first attempt, particularly in the context of weekly structure being bearish (lower-highs thus far into that $2.54 low). If we do pull back from here, I would be surprised to a see a full retrace of the rally into the weekly support level at $2.97, so we must look at the daily for levels that may get tested. On the daily, we can see that price flipped $3.66 as support last week, wicking just below it before continuing higher – if price can take out that low into support at $3.39, I would be keep to look for longs targeting $4.50, where the 360dMA and 200dMA also sit. If we don’t get that pull-back, I would be looking to short the first attempt at a breakout beyond $4.52, waiting for a lower timeframe breakdown from up there, maybe after a swing-failure of the high. If and when we see a breakout and close firmly through that resistance cluster, longs become far more favourable and I would expect to see the $5.68 reclaimed resistance level retested.
Turning to XTZ/BTC, we can see that price has been basing around reclaimed support at 7500 satoshis, but has been putting lower highs into that level since the run up into 18.4k satoshis. This isn’t great for momentum on the Dollar pair and bulls do not want to see another lower high form here, particularly as we come into resistance at 9.1k satoshis, as I become less and less keen to buy 7.5k the more it gets tested with smaller and smaller bounces. If, however, the momentum has shifted, we should see the cluster of support turned resistance (and thus the lower highs) around 11.1k satoshis give way over the coming weeks and that would turn weekly structure bullish once again, opening up a longer-term rally back towards that 18.4k level.
Ankr:
ANKR/USD
Weekly:
Daily:
ANKR/BTC
Weekly:
Daily:
Price: $0.095 (204 satoshis)
Market Cap: $770.14mn
Thoughts: Beginning with ANKR/USD, we can see from the weekly that the pair wicked below support at $0.065, printing a swing-failure but hold above range support a few weeks ago, leading to a multi-week rally and thus last week’s push through reclaimed resistance at $0.9. This weekly close has turned structure bullish as it is a higher-high, and I would now expect a higher-low to form above support at $0.065, so any pull-back towards the $0.072 area for me would be a buy, with clear invalidation and targeting the mid-range up near $0.135. If we look at the daily, we are retesting the 200dMA and 360dMA as resistance, lending confluence to the likelihood of rejection here. If we don’t pull-back towards those support levels below, I am not getting involved. I would rather wait for extension towards the $0.117-$0.135 region and then buy $0.095 as a possible higher low and 200dMA reclaim, if that setup presents itself.
Turning to ANKR/BTC, price found support at prior resistance at 156 satoshis and has rallied up into support turned resistance at 209, with the next level of resistance up at the mid-range at 263. Since April 2021, the pair has been range-bound, so anyone who bought spot down near that range support would be wise to hedge if that extension into the mid-range comes, then looking to play it higher on a reclaim back towards the all-time high weekly close at 348.
Celer Network:
CELR/USD
Weekly:
Daily:
CELR/BTC
Weekly:
Daily:
Price: $0.067 (145 satoshis)
Market Cap: $459.601mn
Thoughts: Looking firstly at CELR/USD, we can see from the weekly that the pair bounced off long-term trendline support and formed a higher-low at prior resistance ~$0.03, above the May 2021 lows. From there, price has rallied hard, trading up into reclaimed resistance at $0.088 last week but rejecting and now sitting in no man’s land around $0.07. From here, we can see that weekly structure has shifted and the momentum has also turned based on the extent of the rally following declining momentum into support. I would be looking to buy a sweep of last week’s low back towards the trendline as a potential higher-low, and, if we look at the daily, we can see that the pair rejected at the 200dMA, so it is likely that a pull-back is coming. It is possible that $0.052 gets protected given that that was the base of the most recent impulse move higher, but if we do sweep it that is my ideal entry. If, however, price continues to break higher from here and closes through trendline support and reclaimed resistance at $0.105, I would be looking to buy a wick into the 200dMA as reclaimed support for the next push higher.
Turning to CELR/BTC, price rallied off of 82 satoshis and marginally closed beyond trendline resistance, rallying into reclaimed resistance at 184 last week but closing back near the trendline. It is possible that this is simply a lower high into resistance and unlike the dollar pair, weekly structure here remains bearish, and my expectations for trend continuation higher on the dollar pair will only really grow if I start to see a higher-low form above reclaimed support at 113. If that level gets close back below, it doesn’t look great to be honest and I would expect 82 to be retested as support. The alternative scenario that may well play out is no deep pull-back from ere but rather continuation through 184 and beyond 242 to make a higher-high, where we could then see weekly structure shift and look to buy 184 satoshis as resistance turned support. Keeping a close eye on this one as I think there is potential for a much larger run if demand can hold on the BTC pair above that 113-satoshi area.
Utrust:
UTK/USD
Weekly:
Daily:
UTK/BTC
Weekly:
Daily:
Price: $0.29 (624 satoshis)
Market Cap: $131.702mn
Thoughts: Finally, looking at UTK/USD on the weekly timeframe, we can see that following the push lower into support at $0.174, price held above the 200wMA and has since pushed back above resistance turned support at $0.25, breaking beyond trendline resistance and marginally turning weekly structure bullish on the most recent close, although it is not a huge show of strength by any means, with support turned resistance at $0.34 continuing to cap price. That being said, we do have some sense of structure and momentum shifting here but I would like to see $0.34 reclaimed as support, at which point I would be keen to add to my UTK position in expectations of more relief, at least back into the 38.2% retracement level at $0.52, if not higher into major resistance around $0.60. In saying that, I personally would not be looking to sell at those levels as I am in a long-term position for UTK, expecting the trend to continue higher over time and lead to another run at all-time highs. I would only look to exit if we lose $0.14, where the 200wMA sits, and only to rebuy a larger position during a deeper bear market, offering more value.
Turning to UTK/BTC, we can see that price has been supported by 560 satoshis for almost a year now, deviating below it into 480 a few weeks ago and immediately reclaiming the level, now looking to break back above 650 and thus the 200wMA. This looks decent to me and again I would be keen to add if we can find acceptance above the 650 area, then looking for another rally into major resistance at 1150. There is not much to add here as the picture has been very much the same on this pair for a long time, but it is a project I do expect to see continue to grow.
And that concludes this week’s Market Outlook.
I hope you’ve found value in the read and thank you for supporting my work!
As ever, feel free to leave any comments or questions below, or email me directly at nik@altcointradershandbook.com.
