Market Outlook #155 (29th November 2021)
Hello, and welcome to the 155th instalment of my Market Outlook.
In this week’s post, I will be covering Bitcoin, Ethereum, XRP, Terra, Litecoin, Cosmos, Ankr, Syscoin and Dero.
Just for a brief update before getting started, I have opted to switch out the NFT 201 post for a Most Promising Altcoins for 2022 post based on reader feedback, which will be out tomorrow. You’ll still get the second NFT post but it will be published in January.
As ever, if you have any requests for next week’s final Outlook of the 2021, please do let me know.
Bitcoin:
Weekly:
Weekly (2):
Daily:
Price: $57,379
Market Cap: $1.083trn
Thoughts: If we begin by looking at BTC/USD on the weekly timeframe, you can see I have provided two charts here – one that depicts the broader picture and one of more recent price-action. Looking at both charts, we can see that following last week’s sell-off, price dumped through the previous weekly low into trendline support from the Q2 low and the previous range high now turned support at $53,000. Despite that sell-off, following a late rally, we closed the weekly back above the prior weekly low but still below the important $58.4k historical resistance, which continues to cap price at present.
If we drop into the daily, we can see that price remains capped by trendline resistance from the all-time high and that we continue to flip prior support as new resistance as we move lower, confirming bearish market structure on this timeframe. That said, following the weekly close, we have now entered an important area for the pair. We sold off through support at $55.6k into that $53k level and immediately bounced, now rallying into reclaimed resistance at $58.4k, from which price is currently rejecting below the trendline. If we now see a lower high printed below $58.4k, bearish structure remains and we likely see that $53k low from last week get swept, where any swing-failure and spring off of that level would look very much like a bottom to me. If instead we see price break lower and close below $53k, I’d be looking for the confluence of support at the April low ~$47k to be tagged. The bullish scenario, however, is that we now form a higher low above $53k and break above trendline resistance, confirming a bottom once we reclaim $58.4k, following which I’d expect continuation to new highs.
Ethereum:
ETH/USD
Weekly:
Daily:
ETH/BTC
Weekly:
Daily:
Price: $4326 (0.07547 BTC)
Market Cap: $512.372bn
Thoughts: Beginning with ETH/USD, we can see from the weekly that the pair continues to look bullish despite BTC, having wicked lower last week into the all-important $3955 double-top area, which acted as support. Price remains firmly above the long-term trendline and if the $3955 resistance continues to hold as support, I’d expect to see continuation higher in December towards that 1.618 extension at $6062. Looking at the daily, we can see that we tapped $3950 once and then swept it on last week’s sell off, leading to a bounce back towards the previous ATH at $4390 which is currently acting as resistance below the trendline. Again, it is important we see $3955 now hold as the low and price either print a higher-low or simply rally through the trendline here and back above $4400 to confirm the bottom, following which we could begin looking for leveraged longs towards $4860 and $5440 as initial targets. Lose $3955 this week and break below the trendline and things start to look a lot less attractive, making the move above $4000 look like a deviation and potential top.
Turning to ETH/BTC, this is the chart that continues to look bullish, with price having closed last week at weekly highs just shy of 0.0753 and still just below trendline resistance. That said, the weekly close was firmly through the ranges capping the prior three weeks and we are now in position to break through trendline resistance and move towards that yearly high at 0.08265. Weekly close that trendline this week and I think ETH accelerates higher for another parabolic leg up. Turning to the daily, we continue to sit above both the 200dMA and the pivot at 0.069 as support, above which I think the pair continues to trend higher. The daily is now flipping prior resistance at 0.0753 as support if it can close today above that level, from which I would expect last week’s high just shy of 0.0778 to be taken out also.
XRP:
XRP/USD
Weekly:
Daily:
XRP/BTC
Weekly:
Daily:
Price: $0.978 (1707 satoshis)
Market Cap: $46.103bn
Thoughts: If we begin with XRP/USD on the weekly, we can see that price has been range-bound for a few months now, having printed a macro lower-high at $1.37, now acting as range resistance, and sold off into range support at $0.91 which continues to hold firm. Given how clean this range is and that weekly market structure is still technically bullish (despite that lower high at $1.37, we have yet to break down below $0.91 to confirm weekly bearish market structure), I would expect an upside breakout to this range, but I am not willing to get involved until we do see either side closed above or below. Close below $0.91 and I will look for XRP/USD shorts, level to level, beginning with $0.78 as my first target, followed by the major support at $0.51, below which price confirms a complacency top and I would expect a near-full retrace of the rally from the March 2020 lows. If we close above $1.37, I’d look for lower timeframe setups to get long for new yearly highs into potential new all-time highs.
Turning to XRP/BTC, we continue to hold above reclaimed support at 1485 satoshis but we have lost the confluence of support around the 1900-satoshi level, with price now retesting that as resistance and consolidating between the two levels. If we drop into the daily, we can see that trendline resistance from the May high is also now capping price and the 360dMA is not budging overhead. As such, before looking for any XRP outperformance, it is paramount those two areas are cleared, where a wick below 1650 into 1485 could act as a spring for a breakout beyond 1900, where I would then look to get involved for a run back towards resistance at 3070 satoshis as a first target, followed by the major resistance at 4k.
Terra:
LUNA/USD
Weekly:
Daily:
LUNA/BTC
Weekly:
Daily:
Price: $49.11 (85,200 satoshis)
Market Cap: $19.154bn
Thoughts: If we begin with LUNA/USD, we can see the pair has been consolidating within tight weekly candles that have generally been grinding higher. On the weekly, we can see that price remains capped by resistance around the all-time high but prior resistance continues to act as support at $36, which is now the most important support for continuation of the trend. Last week saw price close right at the all-time high weekly close, indicating that the pair may now be ready for price discovery. As long as we now hold above $36, I think LUNA breaks beyond $56.83 and continues towards the 3.618 extension of the previous major correction at $75.75. Looking at the daily, the pair is now contesting mid-range at $49, above which I think we are good for continuation higher. Break below $46.35 from here and retest it as resistance and I think we see $36 retested.
Turning to LUNA/BTC, we can see from the weekly that price has been range-bound between support at 5950 and resistance at the all-time high ~10k satoshis for a couple of months now and price, as of last week, has closed at the all-time high weekly close and major resistance at ~8900 satoshis. The candle also printed as a bullish engulfing and I think we now see the all-time high taken out and price continue towards the major confluence of fib extensions around 15k satoshis. If, however, we wick through 10.3k satoshis and close back below it, I’d consider that a failed breakout and would expect to see at least the mid-range at 7400 satoshis retested as support.
Litecoin:
LTC/USD
Weekly:
Daily:
LTC/BTC
Weekly:
Daily:
Price: $198.39 (0.003459 BTC)
Market Cap: $13.704bn
Thoughts: Beginning with LTC/USD, we can see from the weekly that following the April to June bottoming formation above the 200wMA, price has been in an uptrend, rallying initially to just beyond $220 and then retracing to form a higher low around reclaimed support at $146. Since, the pair has rallied higher once again, hitting $304.50 three weeks ago, leading to last week’s retracement into trendline support from that 200wMA bottom and prior resistance turned support at $182.66. This would be an ideal area for a new higher-low to form within this channel higher if LTC is to continue to rally, where I would then expect a push towards the all-time high (which is currently a double-top) at $420. If, however, we break and close below trendline support here and lose $182, the rally would look weak, but market structure remains bullish above $146, which would be the major area to hold above if LTC is to get another leg higher. Dropping into the daily, there is also significant confluence here for a bottom with the 200dMA converging with the 360dMA, so if you are looking to be long Litecoin, this may well be your area.
Turning to LTC/BTC, this chart doesn’t look particularly attractive, despite having swept the historical support (and prior ATL) at 3027 satoshis into a new all-time low at 2900 a few weeks ago, as the rally off that low was capped by prior support turned resistance at 4395, printing another lower-high. From here, bulls want to see the all-time low area protected, where any higher-low above 3030 begins to look more appealing for a bottom, but until we break and close beyond 4400 I don’t see much reason to be long Litecoin over anything else to be honest, particularly when we observe that the 360dMA and 200dMA are also capping it and pushing prices lower on the daily. Break through all of that and I’m interested.
Cosmos:
ATOM/USD
Weekly:
Daily:
ATOM/BTC
Weekly:
Daily:
Price: $27.35 (47,320 satoshis)
Market Cap: $6.077bn
Thoughts: Beginning with ATOM/USD, the pair continues to hold above long-term trendline support and just about above prior range resistance at ~$27. That said, last week the pair did close marginally below that important support level, having wick through it into $24.60 but closing back near the level – this is nothing to be concerned about if you’re long ATOM in my opinion, as the trend still looks very healthy and $27 is still an area of support. If we do see the pair now break lower again this week and close below last week’s low, it will begin to look less attractive. But for now ATOM looks okay and I would be looking for an immediate reclaim of $27.85 and a push back towards $32.88 this week to confirm the low is in. If we look at the daily, we are also still above the 200dMA and 360dMA as well as trendline support, so this cluster below is what we have to pay most attention to – lose that and it looks like game over for ATOM. However, right now we are swing-failing into support after retesting the mid-range at $35.86 as resistance and thus printing a lower-high. Despite the chop, the daily structure is clearly bearish and the weekly is bullish, where we would have a reversal to bullish structure on the daily if we bottom here and break above $33. That’s all I am paying attention to at present.
Turning to ATOM/BTC, we can see that price wicked through trendline resistance from the yearly high and then closed near weekly lows, printing a failed breakout and confirming resistance at 5500 satoshis. This was not what bulls wanted to see as that 5500 area had been resistance for over a year before the breakout and is now acting as resistance again, but price is now sitting at support above the 78.6% retracement area. If we drop into the daily, we can also see that price is sitting on the 200dMA, with the 360dMA just below, and if ATOM can now sweep last week’s low into the 360dMA and then rally off that through trendline resistance and back above 5500, that would look like a bottom to me. If, however, we now continue to print lower-highs capped by trendline resistance and lose support at 3910, I’d expect continuation lower towards support at 3070.
Ankr:
ANKR/USD
Weekly:
Daily:
ANKR/BTC
Weekly:
Daily:
Price: $0.158 (277 satoshis)
Market Cap: $1.281bn
Thoughts: If we begin by looking at ANKR/USD on the weekly, we can see that price has just broken back above the mid-range at $0.135 and closed just shy of the all-time high weekly close at $0.17, which is also the final resistance below the all-time high. Price did wick into that high at $0.22 last week but closed back below $0.171, but given the strength of the weekly candle I would now expect continuation for ANKR beyond $0.17 into price discovery, where the next resistance is the 1.618 extension at $0.33. Looking at the daily, we can see that there is now support at prior resistance ~$0.117 and if we move lower off this $0.17 rejection I’d like to see a higher-low form above that before another crack at all-time highs. Close the daily through $0.19 or the weekly through $0.17 and I think we see price discovery swiftly.
Turning to ANKR/BTC, the long-term trend is still bullish and healthy following the bottom at prior resistance ~134 satoshis, with price having rallied for several weeks since to reclaimed support at 209 satoshis and now break just beyond support turned resistance at 266. If it can now hold above 266, I think we see the ATH weekly close at 302 and mid-range at 315 get tested next as major resistance, where any close beyond would open up a move through the all-time high at 410 towards the 100% extension of the trend at 497.
Syscoin:
SYS/USD
Weekly:
Daily:
SYS/BTC
Weekly:
Daily:
Price: $0.74 (1298 satoshis)
Market Cap: $460.158mn
Thoughts: Looking firstly at SYS/USD, we can see from the weekly that the pair has just closed through resistance at $0.63, with no real resistance left into new all-time highs beyond $1.06. I think the pair continues to rally this week towards that high, and if we get a weekly close through it, we see continuation towards $1.46 and then the confluence of resistance at $1.78. If we get a dip this week back into $0.63, that would be a good area to get involved if you aren’t and have been considering doing so, with invalidation below last week’s low at $0.45.
Turning to SYS/BTC, the pair is now clearing a significant cluster of resistances, having closed above mid-range at 1035 satoshis for the first time in three attempts since 2020 and now closing above the 200wMA for the first time in its history, with the 360wMA just above as resistance. Close through that and I think we see 1900 satoshis retested as range resistance, where a breakout beyond that would see parabolic price-action towards the next major resistance at 3740 in my opinion.
Dero:
DERO/USD
Weekly:
Daily:
DERO/BTC
Weekly:
Daily:
Price: $19.47 (34,150 satoshis)
Market Cap: $214.774mn
Thoughts: Beginning with DERO/USD, we can see from the weekly that the pair has been in a long-term uptrend for well over a year now, but has been consolidating between range support at $16.82 and the all-time high as range resistance at $28.58 for several weeks now. As long as that range support continues to hold here, there is no reason in my opinion to expect the end of the trend, with any push through the mid-range at $25 likely to lead to expansion beyond the high, with the next resistance at the 100% extension ~$33.77. If, however, the pair loses $16 and closes below it, it would turn weekly structure bearish and signal the end of the trend, in my opinion, where the next level of support to test would be the $10-11 prior resistance area.
Turning to DERO/BTC, despite the massive bull trend on the Dollar pair, the BTC pair remains below the all-time high printed shortly after initial trading began in May 2018 at 62,560 satoshis. At present, the pair is consolidating within its uptrend, having printed a high at 53.7k and then finding support at 25.8k satoshis, now having printed a lower high at resistance ~42.8k. If it can break through this level, I think we see continuation higher into the all-time high and potentially beyond. If, however, we see price break below support at 25.8k after printing a potential complacency lower high, it may well be the end of the cycle for DERO.
And that concludes this week’s Market Outlook.
I hope you’ve found value in the read and thank you for supporting my work!
As ever, feel free to leave any comments or questions below, or email me directly at nik@altcointradershandbook.com.
