Market Outlook #154 (22nd November 2021)
Hello, and welcome to the 154th instalment of my Market Outlook.
In this week’s post, I will be covering Bitcoin, Ethereum, Binance Coin, Solana, Tron, Harmony, RedFox Labs, Exeedme and Gelato.
Later this week, I’ll also be publishing NFT 201 and beginning research on a new Coin Report on BSC Station.
As ever, if you have any requests for next week’s Outlook, please do let me know.
Bitcoin:
Weekly:
Daily:
Price: $57,427
Market Cap: $1.084trn
Thoughts: Beginning with BTC/USD, we can see from the weekly that the weekly SFP did play out to some degree, culminating in a liquidity sweep that took out the last few weeks of lows, with price on the lower timeframes so far reflecting the bearish trajectory outlined last week, as we will see on the daily timeframe. Sticking with the weekly for now, price sold off from the weekly open on higher volume than the previous three weeks after that SFP printed and dumped below the swing-low at $58,367 into $55,600, ultimately closing right around $58.4k. We remain above trendline support and the previous highs of this trend at ~$53,000, but this is beginning to approach ‘must-hold’ territory to preserve bullish structure. In truth, as market structure goes, whilst we remain above the swing-low at the previous range high at ~$42k, the weekly structure is still bullish, but if we start to break down below trendline support and prior resistance at $53k doesn’t act as new support and the base for a higher-low, then it is not looking good.
Turning to the daily, we can see that the breakdown from local trendline support led to that sell-off below the series of swing-lows into $58k and below, as price broke below into $55.5k and has since printed a lower high at $60k, with price now consolidating within that range. What we want to see here for continuation higher is for a higher low to form early this week and price to reclaim $60k as support, breaking back above the mid-range and then climbing to new highs, with the breakdown below $58.4k then looking like a bear trap and acting as a spring. If, however, we see $60k continue to act as resistance and price print a lower-low this week below $55.5k, we will continue towards $53k and trendline support from July, which is a key area to flip as new support and form a higher-low. Break back below $53k and trendline support and flip it back to resistance and bears are in control, with the April low and 200DMA/360dMA confluence at $47k the next major support.
Ethereum:
ETH/USD
Weekly:
Daily:
ETH/BTC
Weekly:
Daily:
Price: $4192 (0.07305 BTC)
Market Cap: $496.51bn
Thoughts: Beginning with ETH/USD, from the weekly we can see that price sold off with BTC last week, as one would expect, but the structure here is quite different, with price now returning to the previous double top resistance around $4000 for a breakout retest above long-term trendline support. This certainly looks more bullish than BTC does and I would expect ETH to lead the market higher from here if we do see continuation. As long as we continue to hold above that trendline and don’t break back below $3955 and retest it as resistance, I think $6060 is the next major resistance ahead for ETH/USD. Dropping into the daily, we saw price break back below the prior ATH at $4385 and that is now acting as a lower-high and reclaimed resistance, so the primary signal for a trend reversal back into bullish price-action is a daily close above that level, where I would look to open fresh longs for a run at all-time highs into minor resistance at $5455.
Turning to ETH/BTC, from the weekly we can see that that pivot between 0.069 and 0.071 did hold up as support last week and the pair looks to be coiling up for a breakout beyond trendline resistance. If we do see 0.0753 give way this week I’d be looking for price to close above that level on a weekly basis, providing fuel for continuation towards the 2021 high at 0.0826. Looking at the daily, as long as we hold above 0.069 and the 200dMA just below I think we trend higher from here – that’s the line in the sand for me. Lose it and I would expect a full retrace of the October rally back into range support at 0.055.
Binance Coin:
BNB/USD
Weekly:
Daily:
BNB/BTC
Weekly:
Daily:
Price: $572.12 (0.00997 BTC)
Market Cap: $95.438bn
Thoughts: Beginning with BNB/USD, from the weekly we can see that price rallied into the all-time high at $706 and rejected there, printing a double top at the level, which led to last week’s sell off into prior resistance now acting as support at $550. Regardless of whether this level holds, we have a clear trend of rising lows and highs, with the all-time high now the only resistance left. If we drop off further, I’d expect the mid-range at $456 to act as support and form a higher-low, leading to a breakout beyond the all-time high towards the 1.618 at $1015.
Turning to BNB/BTC, we can see that price continues to consolidate between support at 0.0077 and resistance at 0.01, having broken out marginally beyond that latter level a couple of weeks ago and now consolidating right around it. This is promising for bulls and aligns with the Dollar pair, with the next resistance at 0.01125, which I expect to get tagged over the next couple of weeks. If we break above that, I think we see the all-time high at 0.0124 swept. Dropping into the daily, we can see that the 200dMA is acting as support and that is the area to hold above for short-term trend continuation. Lose it and I think we return to 0.0077 to retest it as support.
Solana:
SOL/USD
Weekly:
Daily:
SOL/BTC
Weekly:
Daily:
Price: $219.57 (0.003829 BTC)
Market Cap: $66.701bn
Thoughts: Beginning with SOL/USD, we can see from the weekly that price broke out to new all-time highs and has since retraced back into the prior ATH at $222.85, which is acting as support, despite price wicking below the level towards $175. As long as the pair continues to hold above trendline support and $175, I think SOL gets another leg higher, with $330 as the next target beyond the high. Dropping into the daily, we can see that price bounced at $186 last week and has since reclaimed the prior ATH but is selling off again, and I would not be surprised to see last week’s low taken out before we see a sharper reversal and return to bullish market structure, where we’d be looking for an SFP of $186 into $175 followed by a higher high above $223.
Turning to SOL/BTC, we can see from the weekly that price closed at a new all-time high weekly close at 0.003816 and has since been consolidating around that level, with the mid-range at 0.0035 acting as support. This looks promising for higher prices, with bulls now needing a close above 0.00423 to lead to an all-time high retest at 0.00474, with any close above that likely to lead to the 1.618 at 0.00625 being tested. Onwards and upwards for SOL.
Tron:
TRX/USD
Weekly:
Daily:
TRX/BTC
Weekly:
Daily:
Price: $0.10 (180 satoshis)
Market Cap: $7.413bn
Thoughts: Beginning with TRX/USD, we can see that the pair continues to grind higher above long-term trendline support, with last week having wick above resistance at $0.127 but ultimately closed below it, back near $0.10. This is the area we would like to see continue to hold as support for a second attempt at a breakout beyond $0.127, with $0.151 the next target above. Unless we do lose the trendline support over the next couple of weeks, I see no reason to be bearish on Tron here. Briefly looking at the daily, we can see that trendline support also aligns with the 200dMA, providing confluence to this area as a must-hold for the long term trend.
Turning to TRX/BTC, we can see from the weekly that price found support above 153 satoshis and has since bounced back above 172, which is promising. If we can hold above that level, I think we see 215 satoshis get retested as resistance then, with 260 and 306 two major levels of resistance beyond that. Ultimately, whilst we are above 153, this looks pretty good for Tron outperformance moving forward.
Harmony:
ONE/USD
Weekly:
Daily:
ONE/BTC
Weekly:
Daily:
Price: $0.297 (517 satoshis)
Market Cap: $3.207bn
Thoughts: Beginning with ONE/USD, we can see from the weekly that price bounced off trendline support after last week’s sell-off and eventually closed the week at weekly highs, just shy of resistance at $0.33. I would expect to see price move beyond that level this week if we can hold above prior resistance at $0.28, with the all-time high in sight at $0.40. Break out beyond that and we’ll see the 2.618 extension tagged at $0.54. Dropping into the daily, we can see that price has broken out above trendline resistance from the all-time high and is now retesting the breakout level as new support, which is exactly what bulls want to see. From here, I think we see a daily close above $0.33 over the next few days to lead to the next leg higher. However, if we lose $0.28 and break down below trendline support, I would expect to see the 200dMA retested all the way down at $0.15.
Turning to ONE/BTC, we can see from the weekly that last week closed at weekly highs above the cluster of resistance at 500 satoshis, which is about as bullish as it could get, with now only the wick into 637 satoshis remaining as resistance to new all-time highs. Looking at the daily, if we take the trend-based fib extensions, we can expect to see price hit the 690-satoshi area as the next level of resistance beyond the all-time high and whilst we remain above 400 satoshis I expect Harmony to continue to outperform. Ultimately, I am looking to sell a bunch of spot ONE at the confluence of the 2.618 and 1.618 fibs at 850 satoshis.
RedFox Labs:
RFOX/USD
Daily:
RFOX/BTC
Daily:
Price: $0.19 (331 satoshis)
Market Cap: $248.573mn
Thoughts: Looking firstly at RFOX/USD, we can see that the pair printed a bottoming formation with a double bottom around $0.037, leading to a breakout beyond the resistance cluster below $0.11, which is now acting as support. Following that support reclaim, we have seen price rally into the 50% retracement level at $0.20, above which price is now consolidating. Hold above this level and I think we see the next resistance cluster at $0.28 get tagged, with price clearly within its second bull cycle and thus likely to move beyond the all-time high at $0.34 towards the 1.618 extension at $0.58 within a few months.
Turning to RFOX/BTC, we can see a similar structure where price broke out and reclaimed support at 205 satoshis, which is also the confluence of the 200dMA and 360dMA. From there, we have continued higher into reclaimed resistance at 357 satoshis, from where I expect to see price push towards the all-time high at 635 satoshis. If we reject at 357, however, I would expect that support at 246 to be retested, which would be an opportune entry for those on the sidelines.
Exeedme:
XED/USD
Daily:
XED/BTC
Daily:
Price: $0.58 (102 satoshis)
Market Cap: $37.781mn
Thoughts: Beginning with XED/USD, we can see from the daily that the pair is in an uptrend within a macro bull cycle, having formed a higher-low at $0.34 that led to a rally into $0.85, still below the August high at $1. Price reclaimed the 200dMA as support and is now looking to form a higher low above it, with $0.485 below a nice area for a bottom to form. If we can hold above it, I would expect to see continuation back into the $1 area and a subsequent breakout towards the 1.618 extension of that high at $1.40. If we can get above that level, I think we see new all-time highs above $2, which is what I am holding the bulk of my position for given the play-to-earn fundamentals.
Turning to XED/BTC, we can see that price is now retesting the 200dMA as support along with reclaimed support at 877, where price is beginning to bounce. This is exactly what we want to see for continuation, and I would now look for a higher-high to follow above 1324 satoshis to lead to a retest of the August high at 2k satoshis. I think this is one to hold and let run over the coming months…
Gelato:
GEL/USD
Daily:
GEL/BTC
Daily:
Price: $2.04 (3564 satoshis)
Market Cap: $19.931mn
Thoughts: Gelato is one of my microcap picks for 2022, as I believe smart contract automation will continue to grow as a narrative, and the chart looks primed for its first major bull cycle.
Looking at GEL/USD, we can see that the pair has formed a macro higher-low above the all-time low and price is now rallying in parabolic fashion, having reclaimed $2.20 as support. From here, I would expect to see continuation towards the all-time high and a breakout beyond it, with the 1.618 at $4.40 and the 200% extension at $5.15 my two primary targets for initial sells.
Finally, looking at GEL/BTC, given the project has not been around for a long time, the market structure is almost identical, except that we flushed the September all-time low on the most recent November low and reversed off that as a spring. Since, we have returned to the 50% retracement, where are finding support, and I would now want to see a higher-low form to lead to trend continuation into the major resistance zone between 5060 and 5400 satoshis. Beyond that, price discovery beckons.
And that concludes this week’s Market Outlook.
I hope you’ve found value in the read and thank you for supporting my work!
As ever, feel free to leave any comments or questions below, or email me directly at nik@altcointradershandbook.com.
