Market Outlook #151 (1st November 2021)
Hello, and welcome to the 151st instalment of my Market Outlook.
In this week’s post, I will be covering Bitcoin, Ethereum, Binance Coin, Polkadot, Polygon, Tron, Harmony, Zilliqa and COTI.
As ever, if you have any requests for next week’s Outlook, please do let me know.
Bitcoin:
Monthly:
Weekly:
Daily:
Price: $62,060
Market Cap: $1.17trn
Thoughts: If we begin by looking at the monthly chart for BTC/USD, we can see that price closed October at a new monthly close all-time high of $61,350, firmly through the previous ATH monthly close, whilst having wicked above the prior all-time high at $65k into a new high at $67k on slightly higher volume than September. Structurally, this is very promising for the remainder of 2021, where, given this monthly close, I would now expect November to be a month of price discovery on growing volume, with ~$87,000 the main target once we begin holding above $67k. Looking ahead, the only bearish setup I can envisage from here would be a breakout into price discovery followed by November closing back below $60k, which would look like a higher timeframe breakout failure. Naturally, I am not expect this to occur and instead am positioned for $87k before 2022.
Turning to the weekly, we can see that price did print a weekly swing-failure, but it seemed at the time too obvious a setup to expect much downside, which I mentioned on Twitter. Whilst this weekly SFP would usually be a perfect setup for shorts, the context of this was important, where we had broken out above all-time highs but the market was over-leveraged and it was unlikely to continue higher without a flush. That leverage got flushed, for the most part, as the swing-failure printed, and price since reversed much of the dump and printed that strong monthly close as expected. Weekly RSI is now beginning to push higher again, indicating momentum is picking up here, with plenty of upside to go before we return to the extremely overbought conditions of Q1. If and when we do continue higher, that is something I will be paying attention to. Again, primary target #1 is the confluence of fib levels at $87k, followed by the big figure that we are all awaiting: $100,000. If BTC is able to close the weekly above that $100k psychological figure, I think that will be the trigger for the retail mania that we saw in December 2017, as the ‘Bitcoin breaks $100,000’ headlines flood the news, and the subsequent parabolic rally will be the one to sell. If, however, we start to see strong signs of exhaustion as we approach $100k, I will likely sell the vast majority of spot and wait to see what happens from there.
Turning to the daily, we can see that prior resistance at $58k became support on the dump last week and price is now turning higher, with only minor resistance (the most recent lower-high) at $63.6k in the way of new all-time highs. Close the daily above that level and I think we see new all-time highs within a few days. For bears, a swing-failure of $67k and subsequent breakdown below $58k would be the signal for further downside.
Ethereum:
ETH/USD
Weekly:
Daily:
ETH/BTC
Weekly:
Daily:
Price: $4328 (0.0697 BTC)
Market Cap: $511.454bn
Thoughts: Beginning with ETH/USD, we can see from the weekly that we are now on the precipice of price-discovery, with the pair having closed the week at $4290 (a new ATH weekly close) on rising volume, and also having wicked into a new all-time high at $4460 last week. No signs of weakness here from ETH, as the pair now looks primed for the next leg higher into the $6-7k area, where we find multiple fib levels for potential resistance areas. If this week can close above $4400, I think we see next week push towards the $5000 psychological figure and beyond into the fib cluster. Weekly RSI is much like BTC – with plenty of upside to go. Trendline support from March 2020 continues to hold firm, so we know where we are headed until we see this support give way. Dropping into the daily, the price-action is very much coiling at present, grinding higher whilst daily ranges remain tight. Looking at this, the pair is ready for that expansive period like that which occurred between mid-April and mid-May following the tighter daily ranges. A daily close above the all-time high and I think we’re on our way to the 1.618 extension at $6067 as the first primary target.
Turning to ETH/BTC, the pair now looks to have bottomed following a few weeks of underperformance, with a higher-low now in place above the May low and price now wrangling with resistance at 0.0713. If we can close the weekly back above this resistance and flip it as support, I think we see ETH continue to outperform throughout November, with the 2021 high at 0.083 the obvious first target, followed by 0.105. Turning to the daily, the pair has also broken out above minor trendline resistance, now printing bullish daily structure with a higher-low above the 200dMA. All we need now is a break back above 0.0713 and I think ETH resumes as the market leader, as it has been for most of the year.
Binance Coin:
BNB/USD
Weekly:
Daily:
BNB/BTC
Weekly:
Daily:
Price: $534.41 (0.008595 BTC)
Market Cap: $89.037bn
Thoughts: Beginning with BNB/USD, we can see from the weekly that the pair is putting in a series of higher lows and higher highs since forming a bottom at $210, most recently printing a swing-low at $317 before pushing towards resistance last week at $550, below which it is currently sat. If we see the weekly now close beyond $550, that would confirm trend continuation from here and the only resistance remaining is $646, the final level before the all-time high at $706. BNB has been lagging for a whilst but given the recent announcement of $1bn in investment into the Binance Smart Chain ecosystem, I do think we see BNB get another round of outperformance before the cycle is over, with the 1.618 extension of the current range at $1000 the primary target. Dropping into the daily, we can see that the 200dMA has recently been reclaimed as support, along with prior resistance at $437, and I would now be looking for a daily close above $550 to look for lower timeframe opportunities to play the range between there and $646.
Turning to BNB/BTC, this pair has been largely flat for a while now, having formed a range between prior resistance turned support at 0.0065 and resistance at the all-time high of 0.0124. During that time, we have seen a series of lower highs and lower lows towards range support, with price simply consolidating in a down-trending channel. Thus, I am looking for a reversal of this trend, with price printing a higher high followed by a higher low from here, to indicate that BNB’s period of underperformance is drawing to its close. A weekly close above 0.01 will be the major trigger, in my opinion, for more parabolic price-action from BNB.
Polkadot:
DOT/USD
Weekly:
Daily:
DOT/BTC
Weekly:
Daily:
Price: $44.32 (71,340 satoshis)
Market Cap: $43.741bn
Thoughts: Looking firstly at DOT/USD, on the weekly timeframe we can see that the pair has been consolidating at the 78.6% fib retracement of the range, which is also prior resistance at $43.30. This area has been a problem for the pair throughout 2021, with the all-time high at $51 only having wicked through the level before that weekly closed below it and led to the subsequent capitulation. As such, I think this area is the most important on the chart, with any weekly close on good volume firmly through $44 likely to lead to price discovery, with no real resistance expected to be found around $51, in my opinion. If we do see that weekly close, I’d be looking for DOT to run towards the 1.618 extension at $77. Dropping into the daily, we can see that price is hugging trendline support from the July low and has flipped prior resistance at $39 as support here, with the past week seeing the pair range-bound between there at $47, with most of the price-action occurring around that $44 mark. From here, if the trendline holds, we can expect to see price discovery within the next week or two.
Turning to DOT/BTC, we can see that the pair formed a higher low at prior resistance turned support at 59.6k satoshis and has since been consolidating below reclaimed resistance at 78.6k. This latter level is the key breakout level for me for DOT outperformance; break and close through it and I think we run the all-time high at 100k satoshis, with any weekly close beyond that high opening up price discovery and a more parabolic run. However, if we start to push into 78.6k and either reject or swing-fail the high above it at 85k satoshis, if I was long DOT I’d begin to hedge exposure, expecting subsequent underperformance and likely a return to the 52k satoshi area.
Polygon:
MATIC/USD
Weekly:
Daily:
MATIC/BTC
Weekly:
Daily:
Price: $1.92 (3080 satoshis)
Market Cap: $12.937bn
Thoughts: Beginning with MATIC/USD, from the weekly we can see that the pair looks a lot like BNB at the moment, with a higher low having formed at $0.98 and price since having close above the swing-high at $1.87, printing a new all-time high weekly close in the process and wicking into $2.35 with plenty of space to run on Weekly RSI before things get overheated again. If we continue to hold above $1.87 here, I think we see MATIC continue higher to the all-time high at $2.97, and I will be looking for long setups on lower timeframes to play that range between here and that high. If we take out the all-time high, I’d expect to see continuation into the 1.618 extension at $4.49. Turning to the daily, we can see that the mid-range is now acting as support here and this may well be as good an area as any to get long – with invalidation on a daily close back below $1.80. From here, I think we see the $2.45 area taken out and price swiftly rally into $3, with higher timeframe closes above the all-time high the signal for price discovery.
Now, looking at MATIC/BTC, we can see that the pair has found support at 2000 satoshis, now acting as the bottom of the range and potentially the depression -> disbelief stage of the cycle. We saw the pair bounce from this low into prior support turned resistance at 3233 satoshis, wicking through it into resistance at 3653 but ultimately closing below it. What we are looking for here is a weekly close through 3233 to confirm the breakout from this range, with any move above 3653 likely to be that disbelief stage of the next cycle for MATIC. Subsequently, I would be looking to play the range all the way back into the all-time high weekly close at 5240 satoshis.
Tron:
TRON/USD
Weekly:
Daily:
TRON/BTC
Weekly:
Daily:
Price: $0.11 (164 satoshis)
Market Cap: $7.299bn
Thoughts: If we begin with TRX/USD, we can see that Tron continues to hug trendline support from the March 2020 capitulation low, now holding above support at $0.089 and consolidating here for several weeks. Again, like BNB, I expect Tron and its ecosystem to get another leg of outperformance before the cycle ends, where a weekly close above $0.127 would open up the move into new yearly highs and potentially a breakout beyond the all-time high weekly close at $0.205. Whilst Tron has lagged hard this year, I think the chart provides clean invalidation and the ability to ride this higher whilst tightening stops, so whilst we continue to hold above the trendline I see no reason to be bearish on Tron.
Turning to TRX/BTC, we can see that the pair continues to consolidate inside a long-term channel, sitting at support at 135 satoshis and continually rejecting a breakout beyond the 200wMA and horizontal resistance at 260 satoshis. Again, invalidation here on a position is quite clean, with any move below 134 likely a signal to gtfo.
Harmony:
ONE/USD
Weekly:
Daily:
ONE/BTC
Weekly:
Daily:
Price: $0.31 (494 satoshis)
Market Cap: $3.302bn
Thoughts: Beginning with ONE/USD, we can see from the weekly that the pair is in price discovery, with last week seeing the pair wick into a new all-time high at the 200% extension of the prior range into $0.425, but ultimately reject and close back near $0.31. Despite this rejection, we are still sitting firmly above prior all-time highs and local trendline support and, if we drop into the daily, I would like to see ONE now hold above this prior resistance turned support at $0.28 as a higher-low. If we don’t hold here, the prior all-time high is a last resort buying zone for me, as any breakdown back inside the all-time high would make this entire breakout seem like a deviation. Hold here however and I think the 2.618 extension at $0.54 is the next target and I’d be looking at ONE ecosystem tokens for outperformance of ONE itself.
Turning to ONE/BTC, we can see from the weekly that despite the long wick into the 1.618 extension at 630 satoshis, printing a new all-time high, and subsequent rejection, the pair still closed firmly above the prior all-time high weekly close but just below the ATH itself. If we drop into the daily for clarity, we can see that the breakout beyond 500 satoshis was strong, with price now looking at retesting the double top in that area as new support, which would make a strong case for continuation higher should it hold, despite the ugly weekly wick. If, however, we start to trade back inside 470, I’d look at cutting exposure to the ONE ecosystem, expecting underperformance.
Zilliqa:
ZIL/USD
Weekly:
Daily:
ZIL/BTC
Weekly:
Daily:
Price: $0.11 (174 satoshis)
Market Cap: $1.308bn
Thoughts: Beginning with ZIL/USD, we can see from the weekly that the pair has put in a stellar higher-low with support at $0.08, with Price now closing back above prior resistance at $0.105 and looking ready to push higher towards the August high at $0.14. If the pair can continue higher from here and use the momentum from the higher low, I’d expect to see a weekly close above $0.14 to follow, which would confirm trend continuation towards the all-time high, in my opinion. Dropping into the daily, the pair is sitting above prior resistance with the 200dMA and 360dMA converging and I would like to see the 200dMA now be reclaimed as support, as it capped price back in late August. It is pivotal for ZIL that this does not become as second rejection and lower high here, where a breakdown below local trendline support following a rejection below $0.14 would be my signal to exit whatever ZIL I have left in the expectation of $0.14 having been a complacency bounce.
Turning to ZIL/BTC, much like Tron it continues to consolidate in a long term range, having barely ran beyond the range this year before returning to it to test prior range resistance as support. We haven’t quite made it that low yet, with prior range resistance sat down at 100 satoshis, but there is nothing on this chart yet that indicates a reversal is imminent, despite the Dollar chart not looking too bad. I’d want to see prior support reclaimed at 243 before getting too bullish, as that would present a weekly market structure shift, from which point I would expect to see continuation higher back towards the yearly high at 450.
COTI:
COTI/USD
Weekly:
Daily:
COTI/BTC
Weekly:
Daily:
Price: $0.63 (1013 satoshis)
Market Cap: $543.835mn
Thoughts: Beginning with COTI/USD, we can see from the weekly that last week closed very bullish, having swept the bottom of the range at $0.44 into $0.42 and swiftly reversed, from there printing a new all-time high at $0.71 and closing the week above the prior all-time high. From here, I would like to see $0.58 hold as support and price to continue higher towards the 1.618 extension at $0.98, where I would expect the pair to find resistance. My invalidation for COTI is now on a daily close below $0.42, where I would exit my entire position, as there is no reason for the pair to return there now having swept the bottom of the range.
Turning to COTI/BTC, we can see that the weekly found support at 722 satoshis and rallied into reclaimed resistance at 1050 satoshis, below which it is currently sat. If we turn to the daily for clarity here, we can see the series of higher highs and higher lows from support, with expansive candles coming in as price moved higher, indicative of increasing momentum. RSI is still pointing at plenty of room to run higher and I am now looking for historical resistance at 1180 to be flipped as support, with the primary target beyond it at 1800 satoshis.
And that concludes this week’s Market Outlook.
I hope you’ve found value in the read and thank you for supporting my work!
As ever, feel free to leave any comments or questions below, or email me directly at nik@altcointradershandbook.com.
