Market Outlook #15

Market Outlook #15 (9th December 2018)

Welcome to the fifteenth instalment of the Market Outlook series. We’ve had some noteworthy price-action over the past week across-the-board, with some short-term reversals looking imminent after a period of prolonged bleeding. In today’s post, I’ll be covering Bitcoin, Monero, Ethereum and ZCash.

On with the show:

Bitcoin:

Price: $3628

Market Cap: $63.18bn

Thoughts: I have opted to only post the hourly chart for BTC/USD this week, as this is where all of the action is taking place. Price broke below the support at ~$3750 and made new lows, bottoming out at a little below $3300; all the while, it continued to respect the short-term trendline resistance that had formed. Since finding a local bottom, price has experienced significant volume on two buyups that have caused a series of higher lows and higher highs to form on this time-frame. The local resistance at $3476 has now become support as Bitcoin attempts a breakout from the trendline resistance. All that being said, there is still major resistance ahead at $3750 – an area which remained resistance on the most recent test. What I am looking for is more volume to come in and carry price above this significant pivot level. If we can get a higher time-frame close above $3750, that would open up the likelihood of a move back towards $4400 to target the old range highs that are sitting there. This is a big if, but if it plays out, we could well see a short-term reversal, which I would imagine will bring the rest of the market up with Bitcoin. One supporting factor to this scenario is that peak selling volume occured on the initial drop to $3750 back in late November – Bitfinex has since not experienced such a high level of sell pressure. However, failure to crack the ~$3750 resistance would undoubtedly see price trading below $3200 over the coming days.


Monero:

XMR/BTC

Price: $48.10 (0.01326 BTC)

Market Cap: $800.138mn (220,545 BTC)

Thoughts: XMR/BTC recently swept the local low that had held firm for ~3 months previously, but it refused to close the daily candle below that low. Price continues to trade below the trendline resistance, but, when the hourly chart is taken into consideration, it seems as though a bottom is forming at this critical support. Price bounced hard after sweeping the low but ran straight into the level of prior support now turned resistance; it refused to give way. Since, price has formed a higher low and looks to be ready to retest that resistance.


Ethereum:

ETH/BTC

Price: $97.19 (0.02679 BTC)

Market Cap: $10.078bn (2,778,028 BTC)

Thoughts: ETH/BTC has played out very similarly to XMR/BTC over the past week, with price break below the short-term range support and experiencing a significant dump below the local low from September. Unlike Monero, Ethereum did close a daily candle below this low; but, sure enough, the following candle reclaimed the critical support level. Again like Monero, price continues to trade below short-term trendline resistance, but has formed a series of higher highs and higher lows on the hourly chart. ETH/BTC recently traded into the mitigation block at 0.0255 BTC, and looks poised to move back into the range above 0.028 BTC. A higher-time frame close within the range would indicate further upside and a reversal underway.


ZCash:

ZEC/BTC

Price: $61.53 (0.01696 BTC)

Market Cap: $333.091mn (91,811 BTC)

Thoughts: This past week, ZCash did what ZCash does best: fuck bulls and bears up in equal measure. On the news of a Coinbase Pro listing, ZCash jumped, moving above range resistance briefly before being swatted down again; but not before forming an equal ‘double top’ around 0.0223 BTC. Price then dumped straight back into the range and further, making a new all-time low against Bitcoin. This move swept the equal ‘double bottom’ that had formed at 0.016 BTC, but the daily candle closed bullish. Price has since formed a short-term uptrend. It remains to be seen whether that move was a stop-hunt or the beginnings of further downside, as price has yet to retest the support turned resistance at 0.01806 BTC. If ZCash can close the daily above this level, I believe new highs will be seen soon after.

That concludes this fifteenth Market Outlook. I hope you’ve enjoyed the read. Let’s cross our fingers for the bullish price-action that seems overdue over the next week.


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