Market Outlook #148 (4th October 2021)
Hello, and welcome to the 148th instalment of my Market Outlook.
In this week’s post, I will be covering Bitcoin, Ethereum, Cardano, Solana, Tezos, Tron, Fantom, Swipe and Oasis Network.
As ever, if you have any requests for next week’s Outlook, please do let me know.
Bitcoin:
Monthly:
Weekly:
Daily:
Price: $47,635
Market Cap: $801.626bn
Thoughts: If we begin by looking at the monthly chart, we can see that September closed as a clear consolidation month, with a narrow body on about equal volume to the preceding two months. We did see price wick into and above the 61.8% retracement at $51k but price ultimately closed at $43.8k – back below the April low. This next month is rather important, in my opinion, as a monthly close above the April low at $46.9k, which has capped the pair for a couple of months, would confirm trend continuation for me, and I would expect BTC to move higher beyond $51k towards significant resistance at $57k. If, however, we find resistance here again in October and close below $46.9k, the September high will begin looking like a complacency lower-high and we could see price push lower from there in November.
Looking at the weekly, regular readers will recall that I was expecting a range high retest at $41k to be met with some demand if BTC was to remain bullish, and the bulls did not disappoint last week, with price bouncing off the range highs as support and closing near weekly highs, back above the April low and above the prior weekly high, up above $48k. This is a great sign of strength from BTC from an area that we want to see hold as a macro higher-low, and following last week’s close we now have a key weekly swing-low formation above that range high. As such, this is a low that must be defended for market structure to remain bullish. Whilst a liquidity-seeking wick below $41k would be fine, we absolutely do not want to see price close on a weekly basis below $41k now. If that low can hold as support, I’d expect to see price continue higher in October towards the September highs above $51k, where, if we can close above that level, I would then expect price to reach for the final level of resistance below the all-time high: the 78.6% retracement and Q1 resistance around $57-58k.
Turning to the daily, I have marked out the trajectory I expect BTC to take if bulls are in control here, where following the trendline breakout and market structure shift, we could expect price to retrace back towards the 200dMA and breakout level at $44,500, which is where I would hunt longs if price comes down there. From there, we’d expect to see another higher low form and form price to then take out the $50k resistance and trade back towards the September high at $53k, below which I wouldn’t be surprised to see consolidation before expansion beyond towards $57k. This is all assuming range highs at $41-42k remain firm as support; lose that and the picture shifts dramatically.
Ethereum:
ETH/USD
Weekly:
Daily:
ETH/BTC
Weekly:
Daily:
Price: $3326 (0.0701 BTC)
Market Cap: $390.183bn
Thoughts: If we begin by looking at ETH/USD on the weekly, we can see that following the retest of trendline support and sweep of the $2912 cluster of lows, price bounced once again off that support and has closed at weekly highs, back above the local pivot at $3240. Price closed firmly above the prior week’s high and I would now expect to see $3240 defended, with price not closing back below that level on a weekly basis. If we look at the daily, we might expect to see a brief dip back below that level intraday but I would expect buyers to step in and for price to now consolidate upwards towards the ATH weekly close at $3955. Once we get above that level, I think all-time highs follow swiftly. If, however, price fails now to hold above trendline support, I would expect the 200dMA and the swing-low at $2638 to be retested, with any breakdown and close below that making the $3960 high look like complacency.
Turning to ETH/BTC, we can see from the weekly that last week was another of consolidation at support, with price holding above prior resistance at 0.069. Whilst we are holding above this area, I still expect the pair to push on for another leg higher towards the yearly high. If we drop into the daily, we can see the structure more clearly, with price respecting the 0.069 area as a higher-low and consolidating between it and 0.0713, If we can start closing the daily above that latter level, I think we see trend continuation and price take out resistance at 0.078, followed by the yearly high at 0.0826.
Cardano:
ADA/USD
Weekly:
Daily:
ADA/BTC
Weekly:
Daily:
Price: $2.18 (4571 satoshis)
Market Cap: $69.996bn
Thoughts: Beginning with the weekly chart for ADA/USD, we can see that price is continuing to consolidate above prior resistance turned support at $1.94, with last week again finding support at that level and closing back near $2.25. Whilst the pair holds above this support level, I think it is likely we see ADA/USD, push higher from here to new all-time highs, with any weekly close back above the prior all-time high at $2.53 the trigger for me to look for short-term longs back into $3.14 and beyond. If we lose this support level, I’d expect price to retest the prior resistance level at $1.55, but for the long-term as long as the pair is not making a macro lower-low below support at $0.98 and/or closing the weekly below trendline support, I think trend continuation is the most likely outcome. Looking at the daily, we can see that local trendline resistance from the all-time high is currently capping price but is on the verge of a breakout, and if we see the daily close above the trendline on good volume, and then reclaim $2.53, I think we’re good for new highs.
Turning to ADA/BTC, we can see that price is retracing after its leg higher into the all-time high weekly close at 6100 satoshis, where it found resistance, with the pair now sitting on prior resistance and the 50% retracement area around 4600-4700 satoshis. Ideally, bulls want this area to hold as support, but I can see the pair retracing a little further to retest the April 2018 high and 61.8%% retracement at 4300 satoshis, which would also align with trendline support. That area is a must hold for ADA outperformance, and if we start to break down below that level it may well be that the period of outperformance for Cardano is over. If it holds, however, I think we simply see another leg higher like the previous three into and beyond the all-time high weekly close.
Solana:
SOL/USD
Weekly:
Daily:
SOL/BTC
Weekly:
Daily:
Price: $166.53 (0.00348 BTC)
Market Cap: $49.71bn
Thoughts: Beginning with SOL/USD, we can see from the weekly that prior resistance turned support at $131 held firm over the past couple of weeks, with price wicking below that level but failing to close below it. Last week, the pair closed back at the all-time high weekly close around $175, indicating that SOL is ready for higher prices, in my opinion. We are still a little under that ATH weekly close but if this week sees daily closes above that level, I think we see continuation to $223 swiftly, with the next minor resistance above at the 1.618 extension of this retracement at $291. Looking at the daily, we now have our consolidation range clearly defined, with support at $131 and resistance at $176. Break and close beyond either of these levels and we know where price is headed; break down below $131 and I would look for shorts all the way back down into $83; break above $175 and I would look for longs to $223 and beyond.
Turning to SOL/BTC, the picture is quite similar, with clear consolidation between support at 0.00274 and resistance at the all-time high weekly close at 0.00385. We are looking for a break and close either side of this range to confirm direction. If resistance is closed above, I think that wick into the all-time high at 0.00474 gets filled in quickly, with the next target at the 1.618 extension of the retracement ~0.00587. If, however, price breaks down, the next major support is at 0.00182 and we’d be wise to look for shorts to fill that range.
Tezos:
XTZ/USD
Weekly:
Daily:
XTZ/BTC
Weekly:
Daily:
Price: $8.55 (18,190 satoshis)
Market Cap: $7.5bn
Thoughts: Beginning with the weekly for XTZ/USD, we can see that price has just closed at new all-time highs, breaking and closing beyond the prior high at $8.42, and today wicking into $9.19. Given the volume on the close and the close right at weekly highs, I would consider this a strong indicator that Tezos is entering price discovery, with the next target at the 1.618 extension of the retracement at $12.40. If we look at the daily, we can see that the daily closed firmly through the prior high and is today retesting it as support. As long as we now hold above $7.68 this week I would expect to see trend continuation towards that $12.40 area, with any intraday dip into the former level an opportunity to look for longs.
Turning to XTZ/BTC, we can see that price has finally broken out of the 250 day accumulation range, closing firmly through resistance at 12k satoshis, retesting it as support and then catapulting higher, through resistance at 14.6k satoshis all the way into the 38.2% retracement of the bear market at 18.7k satoshis, where it is currently consolidating. If we start closing the weekly through this level of minor resistance, I am expecting the market to squeeze all the way into major support turned resistance at the 50% retracement level at 23.2k satoshis, which is also the original breakdown area from prior all-time highs. That would be a good area to hedge exposure and wait for a reclaim of the range support at 26k satoshis before looking for fresh longs, in my opinion.
Tron:
TRX/USD
Weekly:
Daily:
TRX/BTC
Weekly:
Daily:
Price: $0.092 (192 satoshis)
Market Cap: $6.583bn
Thoughts: Beginning with TRX/USD, we can see from the weekly that trendline support from March 2020 continues to hold firm as Tron pushes higher, with resistance turned support at $0.09 now acting as a higher-low. If we can hold above this level, I would expect the next few weeks to bring another leg higher for the pair, with primary resistance at $0.15 before the yearly high at $0.185 and all-time high weekly close at $0.205. Looking at the daily, the pair has reclaimed the 200dMA with it now acting as support, and once we see a daily close above minor resistance at $0.10, the pair will be ready for the next leg higher. Lose the 200dMA and $0.089 here and I think we see price return to the trendline, which has to hold. If we do see that dip into the trendline, I will be adding to my TRX long position, with invalidation below $0.07.
Turning to TRX/BTC, from the weekly we can see that price is still lingering inside a long-term range, capped y resistance at the 200wMA at 300 satoshis and supported by 150 satoshis. If we look at the daily for more clarity, we can see that the pair rallied off range support all the way into resistance at 260 but failed there and is now returning towards the 360dMA at 172 satoshis. Given how BTC/USD looks, I think it is likely TRX/BTC does return to range support, which is where I would look to get involved if you are on the sidelines, with tight invalidation on a close below 134 satoshis.
Fantom:
FTM/USD
Weekly:
Daily:
FTM/BTC
Weekly:
Daily:
Price: $1.40 (294 satoshis)
Market Cap: $3.601bn
Thoughts: Beginning with FTM/USD, we can see that price is now consolidating between the all-time high weekly close at $1.48 and support at $1.08, having wicked below support into the prior ATH at $0.98, which held firm as new support. Trendline support is also holding firm but it is likely we see consolidation through this support as Fantom takes a breather. That said, whilst the pair is holding firmly and consolidating above prior all-time highs, I think it is likely we see another leg higher, and once the weekly closes beyond $1.50 I think that will trigger the next leg into $2.32 and beyond. Dropping into the daily, we can see that price looks a lot like Solana here, having retraced from the all-time high to form this neat consolidating range above prior highs. We are still very much in a strong bull trend here and price is already looking primed to close above short-term range resistance at $1.50, which is the final resistance before another crack at all-time highs.
Turning to FTM/BTC, again the picture is very much the same, with FTM/BTC looking a lot like SOL/BTC – unsurprisingly so, given the L1 narrative – and we find ourselves in a range between the all-time high weekly close at 3150 satoshis and support at 2420. Whilst the pair is in this range, there isn’t a great deal to do, but once we see a break either side we can look to play either the range between 3150 and the all-time high at 4200 (and potentially beyond) or open synthetic shorts (long BTC/USD + short FTM/USD) on a close below 2420 targeting the prior ATH at 1900 satoshis.
Swipe:
SXP/USD
Weekly:
Daily:
SXP/BTC
Weekly:
Daily:
Price: $2.33 (4862 satoshis)
Market Cap: $438.227mn
Thoughts: Looking firstly at SXP/USD, the weekly is a textbook cyclical chart in a macro uptrend, with price having retraced 78% from its all-time high into long-term trendline support, rallied higher and rejected at resistance ~$5 and now come back to retest the trendline and form a higher-low, assuming bulls retain control. If we now see price close the weekly back above $2.55, reclaiming that support level, I would expect to see the next leg higher for the pair from there, looking to rebuy a dip back into $2.55 (or close to it) and looking to hold for $5 and beyond, with invalidation below last week’s low.
Turning to SXP/BTC, the pair is sitting on range support, which, if we look at the daily, we can see has held for 240 days now. This range support between 4150 and 4750 satoshis is an area I am looking to build a longer-term spot position, as invalidation is clean on a weekly close below the lower level and upside is significant, with the first target at range resistance ~10k satoshis. However, if you are more risk-averse, waiting for a reclaim of the cluster at 6100 satoshis (the 200dMA and 360dMA converge here) is wise.
Oasis Network:
ROSE/USD
Weekly:
Daily:
ROSE/BTC
Weekly:
Daily:
Price: $0.185 (387 satoshis)
Market Cap: $277.69mn
Thoughts: Beginning with ROSE/USD, from the weekly we can see that price has wicked beyond prior all-time highs at $0.26 into a new high at $0.38 but closed back below $0.26, printing a swing-failure. The following week saw price again reject a move beyond $0.26 and we have since seen the pair retrace towards support at $0.13. I would expect to see this level now hold as a higher low if the trend is to continue, but given the weekly swing-failure, I would be exiting immediately if we saw a weekly close below $0.13, as I would then expect a much deeper retracement like the previous wave, potentially taking ROSE towards prior resistance turned range support at $0.08. If we look at the daily, the $0.13 area is also where the 200dMA sits, adding confluence to the idea that this area must hold as a higher low for the trend to continue short-term towards new all-time highs.
If we turn to ROSE/BTC, the picture is pretty much identical, albeit with one important difference: the weekly closed firmly through prior all-time highs at 420 when it rallied and printed a new ATH at 718 satoshis, closing the week at 552. It has since retraced back towards prior highs, which are now acting as support, again providing confluence across pairs to the idea that it is likely we see a macro higher-low begin to form here and for price to continue higher over the coming weeks, as long as support holds, with the next major resistance at the 2.618 extension of the trend at 982 satoshis.
And that concludes this week’s Market Outlook.
I hope you’ve found value in the read and thank you for supporting my work!
As ever, feel free to leave any comments or questions below, or email me directly at nik@altcointradershandbook.com.
