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Market Outlook #147

Market Outlook #147 (27th September 2021)

Hello, and welcome to the 147th instalment of my Market Outlook.

In this week’s post, I will be covering Bitcoin, Ethereum, Avalanche, Algorand, Cosmos, Harmony, Ren, COTI, Umbrella Network and Tarot.

As ever, if you have any requests for next week’s Outlook, please do let me know.

Bitcoin:

Weekly:

BTCUSDWeekly

Daily:

BTCUSDDaily

Price: $43,754

Market Cap: $823.178bn

Thoughts: If we begin by looking at BTC/USD on the weekly, then we can see that price sold through support at the January 2021 range High ~$42k last week, wicking back inside the historical range but ultimately finding demand and closing back above the range high. That being said, the inside week failure scenario did not come to fruition, as the week closed below the inside week low at $43,170. Given this marginal close below the inside week, that particular setup is invalidated, but the broader context of the wick inside the range high followed by a close back above $42k is promising, as it presents the possibility that last week’s sell off was a bear trap. Now, in order to better determine the likelihood of the scenario, we must look at the daily chart. Here, we can see the beginnings of a reversal pattern, where a higher-low has formed above the range high, with price currently capped both by local trendline resistance and the lower high at $44,850. If the pair is able to continue higher from here, I’d like to see a higher high from above this cluster of resistance, with the 200dMA just above also at $45,500. If we do see that area cleared, market structure turns bullish on the daily timeframe and we would be looking at the entire move below $42k as a bear trap, with the likelihood then being that price pushes back towards the $53k high. If, however, price fails to break out and prints another lower high here below trendline resistance, I would expect $42k to be retested again as support, where the reaction will be very important; break and close back below the low at $40,900 and I think we see price return to at least the June open at $37,300, where the 360dMA is also sitting, but in all likelihood the move back inside the range would make $53k look more and more like a complacency shoulder, where confirmation of this would be on a breakdown below $30k. Important days ahead, but I continue to lean bullish above this range high.


Ethereum:

ETH/USD

Weekly:

ETHUSDWeekly

Daily:

ETHUSDDaily

ETH/BTC

Weekly:

ETHBTCWeekly

Daily:

ETHBTCDaily

Price: $3104 (0.07097 BTC)

Market Cap: $365.353bn

Thoughts: Beginning with ETH/USD, we can see from the weekly that price wicked below prior resistance turned support at $2912, sweeping a cluster of lows into trendline support and bouncing at $2638, ultimately closing the week back above $2912, which is promising to see. Again, the inside week failure formation is invalidated here, but the broader context looks favourable for continuation higher given the demand being found below $2900. As long as ETH/USD can now hold above trendline support over the next week or two, I think we see the pair push higher towards $3950 for another retest of that resistance area. Looking at the daily, the 200dMA got front-run slightly but price bounced almost exactly where we were expecting demand to be found, and the subsequent days have seen $2780 begin to act as support, with $3241 now capping price, along with local trendline resistance. Break back above both these resistances and I think continuation is well and truly on, with ETH likely to outperform Bitcoin in that scenario. Unless we now reject below $3240 and break down below the 200dMA and trendline support I see no reason to be bearish Ethereum here.

Turning to ETH/BTC, last week saw price form the beginnings of a higher-low, as we anticipated, wicking towards prior support at 0.069 but ultimately finding demand above that low and closing the week back near 0.071. From here, I would like to see continuation to print a swing-low above 0.069, with any weekly close back above 0.0733 indicating the pair wants to retest the yearly highs at 0.0826. If we drop into the daily, we can see that price has attempted to break lower on several attempts over the past week but each push lower has printed swing-failures, with yesterday’s price-action reversing back towards 0.071. From here, we are looking for a push back above that prior resistance at 0.0733, from which point I’d expect continuation above the 0.078 high into 0.083 and beyond.


Avalanche:

AVAX/USD

Weekly:

AVAXUSDWeekly

Daily:

AVAXUSDDaily

AVAX/BTC

Weekly:

AVAXBTCWeekly

Daily:

Price: $69.72 (0.001593 BTC)

Market Cap: $15.359bn

Thoughts: Beginning with AVAX/USD, we can see from the weekly that the pair has closed above prior all-time highs at $64 and is now consolidating above that high, having printed a new all-time high at $83. As long as the pair can continue to hold above this prior high, I think it is likely AVAX sees another period of price discovery, much like the period following the breakout above $10.50 at the beginning of the year. In that scenario, I am looking at the 1.618 extension of the bull trend at $109 to be a magnet for price. Looking at the daily, we can see that price broke above resistance at $39.40 before consolidating in a new range below the prior ATH, with $39 acting as support. Since, the pair has been grinding higher, flipping local resistance as support, like at $51 and now potentially the prior ATH itself at $64. This trend of higher-highs and higher-lows whilst consolidating above the prior ATH is healthy and given the amount of volume coming in here, I wouldn’t be surprised to see the next push above $83 lead to more parabolic acting like that of February this year, with $109 as the first target and $133 as the second target. Invalidation of price discovery would be if price started printing lower-lows on the daily (at present below $51) and then closed the weekly back below $64.

Looking at AVAX/BTC, the picture is very much the same, with price having closed firmly above the prior ATH at 0.00135 and now retesting that high as support, having wicked last week into a new all-time high at 0.0018. From here, I would expect to see continuation higher towards the 1.618 extension at 0.00235. Looking at the daily for more clarity, we can see this trend of higher-highs and higher-lows carry over to the BTC pair, where I would now expect a higher low to form above the prior ATH at 0.00135 before another push beyond 0.0018, leading to that expansion into the fib levels marked out. Again, invalidation for AVAX on trend continuation would be if the pair broke down back below 0.00135 and retested that prior ATH as resistance, where I would then start looking for AVAX shorts.


Algorand:

ALGO/USD

Weekly:

ALGOUSDWeekly

Daily:

ALGOUSDDaily

ALGO/BTC

Weekly:

ALGOBTCWeekly

Daily:

ALGOBTCDaily

Price: $1.80 (4111 satoshis)

Market Cap: $10.604bn

Thoughts: Beginning with ALGO/USD, from the weekly we can see that price is currently playing out precisely as anticipated, having broken out above the range highs at $1.91 and now retesting the cluster of prior resistance as support at $1.48, which made the perfect entry for those on the sidelines last week (or the perfect spot to compound). I am now looking for $1.48 to hold as support, with continuation higher towards the all-time high at $3.76 now the primary target. Looking at the daily, we are printing a higher-low above prior resistance at $1.48 and as soon as we get a daily close back above $2.05, I’d consider market structure bullish again on this timeframe and would be looking for continuation into the 1.618 extension at $3.35, followed by the all-time high before the end of 2021.

Turning to ALGO/BTC, we can see that price is now consolidating above prior resistance at 3900 satoshis, having rejected at historical resistance between 4900 and 5300 satoshis. We would now expect this 3900-satoshi area to hold as support and form a higher low, from which I’d expect the 5300 satoshi resistance to be cracked, leading to a retest of the 2020 high at 6500 satoshis. Beyond that high, there is resistance at 8340 satoshis, but it is effectively clear skies from there into10,900 satoshis and beyond, where ALGO could get truly parabolic as it enters price discovery against the Dollar.


Cosmos:

ATOM/USD

Weekly:

ATOMUSDWeekly

Daily:

ATOMUSDDaily

ATOM/BTC

Weekly:

ATOMBTCWeekly

Daily:

ATOMBTCDaily

Price: $39.78 (88,681 satoshis)

Market Cap: $8.607bn

Thoughts: If we look firstly at ATOM/USD, we can see from the weekly that the pair broke out beyond the yearly range to a new all-time high at $47.10, at the 1.618 extension. Last week, the pair sold off and retested the range highs at $28 as support, being bought back up towards the all-time highs. From here, as long as that range high holds, I’d expect continuation towards $58.22. If we look at the daily, the parabolic curve is still in play, and there are now two bullish scenarios I am considering. The first is that the curve holds and price just continues higher over the next few weeks into a blow-off top, and the second is that the curve breaks, price consolidates above that prior range and then begins another leg up towards the 2.618 extension at $73.82. Either way, the outlook is undoubtedly bullish here, and unless we start closing the weekly back below $23.20 I see no reason to get bearish.

Turning to ATOM/BTC, beginning with the weekly, we can see that price has retested the 2020 highs as support at 76.4k satoshis and pushed back up towards resistance at 96k satoshis, below which the pair is consolidating. I would like to now see the 2020 highs hold as support and price now close above 96k to confirm the breakout, where the final resistance below all-time highs is at 128.7k satoshis. If that level gives way, ATOM is in for a mega-run, and I’d be looking at Cosmos ecosystem coins for outperformance (which I’ll begin covering in these Outlooks if I spot anything promising).


Harmony:

ONE/USD

Weekly:

Daily:

ONEUSDDaily

ONE/BTC

Weekly:

ONEBTCWeekly

Daily:

ONEBTCDaily

Price: $0.165 (377 satoshis)

Market Cap: $1.75bn

Thoughts: Beginning with the weekly for ONE/USD, we can see that price is consolidating below the all-time highs at $0.24, having broken out above trendline resistance and now retesting it as support. Last week saw the pair wick below the trendline but close back above it with a bullish hammer, and I’d now expect continuation to price discovery beyond the all-time highs towards a first target of the 1.618 extension at $0.35. If we drop into the daily, we can see that the pair dropped off for a perfect retest of the 200dMA as it dipped below the trendline, then sharply reversed. The structure is pretty much perfect here for continuation, but if you are on the sidelines I would look to buy the breakout above all-time highs as opposed to here in limbo, or buy a dip back towards the mid-range at $0.14 if that comes, with invalidation below the 200dMA.

Turning to ONE/BTC, we can see that new all-time highs have been made at 500 satoshis and price has closed firmly above the prior ATH at 441, now having dipped back into prior resistance turned support at 282 and closed at weekly highs. From here, I’d now like to see that 282 area hold as a higher low and price to then continue beyond 500 satoshis, which, if we look at the daily, would have the 1.618 extension at 630 satoshis as the primary target.


REN:

REN/USD

Weekly:

RENUSDWeekly

Daily:

RENUSDDaily

REN/BTC

Weekly:

RENBTCWeekly

Daily:

RENBTCDaily

Price: $1.07 (2461 satoshis)

Market Cap: $1.074bn

Thoughts: Beginning with REN/USD, from the weekly we can see that price is pushing higher supported by the trendline since the bottom in July, now pushing above the mid-range at $1.10. If it can hold above mid-range, I’d expect the ATH Weekly close at $1.40 to be tested next, where any weekly close above that level is the signal for a push towards the all-time high at $1.93. Looking at the daily, the support cluster between $0.59 and $0.65 is critical here, as a zone of prior resistance and the 360dMA and 200dMA. As long as the pair can hold above that zone, I think REN remains bullish. If we do get above $1.40, I’d expect the all-time high to be swept at the very least, with any close above it leading to the 1.618 extension at $2.97.

Turning to REN/BTC, the pair has finally broken back above prior resistance at 1700 satoshis, wicking into 2160 and then closing above it last week at 2760 satoshis. From here, I’d like to see 2160 now act as support, with any higher-low above that level then opening up upside into the yearly high at 3360 satoshis.


COTI:

COTI/USD

Weekly:

COTIUSDWeekly

Daily:

COTIUSDDaily

COTI/BTC

Weekly:

COTIBTCWeekly

Daily:

COTIBTCDaily

Price: $0.53 (1217 satoshis)

Market Cap: $462.09mn

Thoughts: Looking firstly at COTI/USD, we can see from the weekly that the pair broke new all-time highs last week, having bounced off trendline resistance turned support and reclaimed support at $0.31, wicking into $0.68 but closing back below the prior high at $0.58 but above resistance at $0.51. Given the movements of the past few weeks, I would expect to see consolidation below this high for a little longer before we truly break out into price discovery, with the 1.618 extension the first target where I will be looking to unload some of my position. Turning to the daily, we can see that the pair bounced perfectly off the 200dMA, with price now consolidating around prior resistance turned support. If the pair can hold above $0.50, I’d expect the next daily close above $0.58 to kick start that price discovery. Beyond $1, I am looking at $1.50 as the next key area of resistance.

Turning to COTI/BTC, we can see that price wicked into new all-time highs at 1582 satoshis, but ultimately closed just below prior highs and channel resistance, though up significantly on the week at 1200 satoshis. Again, given the rejection at resistance but the extent of the rally into the weekly close, I’d expect to see consolidation here followed by expansion into price discovery, with the first target at the 1.618 extension at 1800 satoshis. The second target is the 200% extension at 2140 satoshis. Onwards and upwards!


Umbrella Network:

UMB/USD

Daily:

UMB/BTC

Daily:

UMBBTCDaily

Price: $0.42 (953 satoshis)

Market Cap: $30.847mn

Thoughts: Beginning with UMB/USD, we can see that price has just flipped the resistance zone at $0.29 and is now retesting it as support, having emerged for a multi-month range. The 200dMA is also capping price, with the pair never having traded above it. I think there is plenty of upside here and this is a perfect area to either compound or get involved if you aren’t, in my opinion, as I’d put invalidation below the reclaimed range support at $0.17. From here, I expect UMB to push on towards the 23.6% retracement at $0.66 firstly, but my primary target is support turned resistance at the 38.2% resistance ~$1.

Turning to UMB/BTC, we can see the perfect cyclical bottoming formation, as price has reclaimed support at 520 satoshis and now pushed above prior resistance at 725, which should now be an area for a higher low to form. Price is currently capped by prior support at 1060 satoshis and the 200dMA, and I think once we crack this level the bull cycle (disbelief) will begin and we will move towards 1600 satoshis, followed by the 38.2% retracement at 2250.


Tarot:

TAROT/USD

Daily:

TAROTUSDDaily

TAROT/BTC

Daily:

TAROTBTCDaily

Price: $1.53 (3514 satoshis)

Market Cap: $7.387mn

Thoughts: TAROT is one of my low-cap Fantom ecosystem picks, which has retraced 81% from the all-time high at $4.18, as seen on the TAROT/USD daily timeframe, and formed an accumulation range between $0.78 and $1.63, with TVL of $93mn currently on the platform despite a market cap less than one-tenth the size. I am buying inside the range and have noticed large holders doing the same, and I think once we pop range resistance at $1.63 we can expect to see a swift reversal of this retracement towards the all-time high. Beyond that high, which I do expect to get taken out, I am looking at $6.30 and $9.20 as primary targets.

And that concludes this week’s Market Outlook.

I hope you’ve found value in the read and thank you for supporting my work!

As ever, feel free to leave any comments or questions below, or email me directly at nik@altcointradershandbook.com.


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This Post Has 4 Comments

  1. arejdych

    Hello Nik!

    Thank you for all the content!
    I would like to ask based on which criteria you choose the coins to analyse in your Market Outlook?
    Also will you be publishing any coin reports soon? (The last one is from March 2021)

    Regards,
    Aneta

    1. Nik

      Hi Aneta, I have replied to your email 🙂 Hope it helps.

  2. cryptokd

    Hi Nik, If possible , can you please cover SOL in tomorrow’s market outlook.

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