Market Outlook #146 (21st September 2021)
Hello, and welcome to the 146th instalment of my Market Outlook.
In this week’s post, I will be covering Bitcoin, Ethereum, Solana, Polkadot, Chainlink, Fantom, Zilliqa, Utrust and Tellor.
As ever, if you have any requests for next week’s Outlook, please do let me know.
Bitcoin:
Weekly:
Daily:
Price: $43,377
Market Cap: $817.138bn
Thoughts: If we begin by looking at BTC/USD on the weekly, we can see that price consolidated around the April low last week, printing an inside week on low volume and ultimately closing right around the $47k area. As we know, the formation of an inside week presents the possibility of inside week failure forming, where the high or low of the inside week is swept and price then closes the week back inside that range, from which point price is likely to seek liquidity at the other end of the weekly range. In this scenario, we would be looking at a sweep of $43,370 as the weekly low or $48,843 as the weekly high. Given the price-action of the past 36 hours, we can see that the former is more likely to be the pattern in formation, with price having sold off from Monday’s open at $47.2k and dumped below both last week’s low at $43.4k and the prior weekly low around $42.5k, wicking into and below the range high at $40.9k but being bought back up immediately. Now, we are still very early in the week, and there is absolutely no way to know how this week is going to close. However, last week you will recall I mentioned that I’d be looking for a retest of the $40.9k area as a last resort demand area to form a higher-low from which the pair could move up to retest $50k; here, we have been given that retest and at present it is looking like inside week failure could be on the cards, which would add confluence to our idea that BTC will move back towards $50k from here. If bulls do regain control here after the dip into previous range highs, I’d be looking for a weekly close above $43.5k to confirm this as a bear trap and I’d be looking for intraday longs next week for a move back towards $48.8k. If, however, the weekly closes below support at $42.5k, this retest would begin looking more bearish to me and I’d perhaps expect another tap into the demand area at $40.9k (likely as low as $40k to sweep this week’s low) before a bottom forms. The bearish scenario, as I have stated for several weeks now, is that price now closes back below $41k on the weekly timeframe, making the breakout and rally into $50k look like a deviation and complacency shoulder, following which it is likely price at the very least returns to retest the $30-31k area, where the reaction will determine whether we enter a deeper retracement towards $24.5k. Right now, there is no reason to expect this latter scenario as the price-action is not yet suggestive of that, in my opinion – this weekly close will be important.
Turning to the daily, we can see that in true Bitcoin fashion, price faked a reclaim of the April low and 200dMA last week only to form a lower-high at $48.8k and then sell off, closing the daily back below the April low and dumping below the cluster of swing-lows between $42-44k, into the original breakout area from early August (and the range high that capped price in January). This is a critical area to hold as support, and given the buy-back following the dump things are looking promising, but it is still early. From here, I’d want to see even more strength from bulls and for price to close back inside $43.5-$43.7k, ideally today. If we do see that, the reaction tomorrow should be continuation back above $44k; if we don’t see that and price starts to fall back below $43k, that would be worrying, at least short-term, and we’d likely be looking at today’s low getting taken out, so that $40.2k level would be the target for any intraweek short setups, where it would be wise to cover or even get long on a sweep.
Ethereum:
ETH/USD
Weekly:
Daily:
ETH/BTC
Weekly:
Daily:
Price: $3066 (0.07074 BTC)
Market Cap: $360.603bn
Thoughts: Beginning with ETH/USD, we can see from the weekly that the pair has held up better than Bitcoin, but price-action early this week has sent the pair lower, sweeping the cluster of lows below $2910, as anticipated, and finding support at $2805 at present. Last week was a week of consolidation and, much like BTC/USD, formed an inside week, so the same scenario applies here, where any weekly close back inside last week’s low following this sweep of $2900 would support longs going into next week, at least for a retest of $3900. Looking at the daily, if the pair struggles to get back above $3240 from here and BTC looks to make another dip towards $40k, I’d be looking to buy a sweep of today’s low into the 200dMA and trendline support, as highlighted on the chart. If ETH can climb back above $3240 from here, I think last week’s high gets taken out and the pair retests the ATH weekly close at $3955. The bearish scenario for ETH/USD is a loss of both the 200dMA and trendline support and for those levels to become resistance, leading to lower-lows into $2400, as I would then expect support at $2050 to be retested, which, if it fails to hold, would open up downside into $1700 and likely a macro bear market if that level also gives way.
Turning to ETH/BTC, not a great deal has changed, as last week did see price move lower but remain above prior resistance turned support at 0.069. If we look at the daily for clarity, structure remains intact here, where resistance is now acting as support and whilst we hold this area I think it is likely the pair is putting in another higher-low before a leg higher into new yearly highs. Lose this area and it begins to look different, as any breakdown and close below 0.0645 from here would be a lower-low and signal a trend reversal. Again, pay attention to the price-action here over the next week or so as it could determine trajectory for Q4.
Solana:
SOL/USD
Weekly:
Daily:
SOL/BTC
Weekly:
Daily:
Price: $142.18 (0.00328 BTC)
Market Cap: $42.223bn
Thoughts: Beginning with SOL/USD, the first thing to notice here is that following last week’s close, the pair has broken the parabolic advance, which indicates that the local top is likely in for now. Price found resistance at the 3.618 extension of the prior range and ATH weekly close at $175 and dumped lower from the weekly open, dipping into $133 before closing the week at $153. Since, the pair has taken out last week’s low and the previous weekly low into $121 but at present is looking like inside week failure is forming, just like on BTC and ETH/USD. Again, there is a long week left to unfold but in the event that SOL does close above last week’s low following this dip into $121, I’d expect $175 to be swept subsequently, with the reaction at that level likely to be indicative of Q4 trajectory. For example, if SOL is able to close the weekly back above $175 over the next couple of weeks, I would expect trend continuation, with the 1000% extension at $454 a major target in that scenario. If, however, $175 holds as resistance, I would expect the pair to move lower, back towards $83, as prior resistance. If we look at the daily, that $175 area is also currently a lower-high, so a break and close above it would turn daily structure back to bullish, adding confluence to the likelihood trend continuation. If, however, $131 fails to hold here and price breaks below today’s low later this week, I’d be look at $83 as the next key support area, and we could look for short setups back towards that level, with $175 as invalidation.
Turning to SOL/BTC, we can see here that price rallied beyond the 500% extension at 0.004425 into an all-time high at 0.00474, before closing back below that extension at 0.00385, which is holding as resistance for now. Meanwhile, prior minor resistance at 0.00274 is acting as support, with last week’s range trapped between those two levels. I think it is likely we see another week of consolidation for the pair within last week’s range given the extent of the rally over the past couple of months. Dropping into the daily, we can see this support cluster more clearly between 0.00274 and 0.003, and whilst this holds I think the pair just chops below the all-time high; if it breaks and gives way, there is no real support all the way back down into 0.00178. Again, the picture for trend continuation is clear, where any weekly close above 0.00385 is very likely to lead to price discovery above the all-time high, with the 1.618 extension of the trend currently at 0.0063.
Polkadot:
DOT/USD
Weekly:
Daily:
DOT/BTC
Weekly:
Daily:
Price: $29.80 (68,700 satoshis)
Market Cap: $29.41bn
Thoughts: If we look firstly at DOT/USD, we can see from the weekly that the pair rallied towards resistance at $43.29 last week but rejected just shy of it, and early this week the pair has retested reclaimed support at $25.80, which is holding for now. Whilst this key weekly level continues to hold, I think it is likely DOT makes another push for $43, where any weekly close above that level would lead to an all-time high sweep or breakout beyond $51, as there are only wicks between those two levels – $43 is the critical resistance here. If DOT does manage to close the weekly above $43.30 on the next test, I’d be looking at $77 as the 1.618 extension to be the next target, as seen on the daily timeframe. If we drop into the daily, we can see that reclaimed support here at $25.80 aligns with the 200dMA, and I’d actually be interested in longs in this area, as invalidation is clear: the previous swing-low that swept $25, taking out stops before breaking higher. As long as that low holds, I think DOT just pushes higher, with a daily close above $36.70 key to continuation towards range resistance, where we could look to compound our longs in that scenario. For bears, a breakdown below $25.80 is key, where a daily close below that level and subsequent close below the prior swing-low would signal a trend shift, with $20 as the final key support before a full retracement of this rally back into $12.85.
Turning to DOT/BTC, we can see from the weekly that the pair is currently capped by reclaimed resistance at 78.7k satoshis, having poked above it last week into 84.9k but closing below the level. Price this week has moved lower towards prior resistance turned support at 59.6k satoshis, which at present has been front-run with today’s low at 62.5k, but if we did see DOT wick into that 60k area I think that would be a good spot to catch a long for a retest of 78.7k. Loss of support below at 59.6k would begin to look bearish, particularly given the implications for the dollar pair, but there is some support below at 52.25k satoshis that has been holding during this rally off the bottom; lose that, however, and I think the pair retraces back to 35.8k. Hold above 59.6k and I think we continue higher towards the all-time high weekly close at 91.5k satoshis, and if we look at the daily we can see that the pair is holding onto trendline support for now, with hidden bullish divergence forming (but not yet formed). This is certainly one of the better looking large-caps for trend continuation at present, in my opinion.
Chainlink:
LINK/USD
Weekly:
Daily:
LINK/BTC
Weekly:
Daily:
Price: $24.19 (55,760 satoshis)
Market Cap: $10.927bn
Thoughts: Beginning with LINK/USD, from the weekly we can see that price rejected at the confluence of resistance at $35.80, where prior trendline support and historical resistance converge. Since, the pair has been selling off, dipping into reclaimed support at $21 this week and sweeping the weekly lows of the previous 5 weekly ranges. If LINK can now find some demand here following the sweeps, I would expect this area to become a higher-low as the pair pushes for a retest of the $36 level, above which it would be clear skies really to the all-time high at $54.30, with minor resistance in between at $45.80. If, however, $21 fails to hold here, I think it is likely the pair retests $17.27 and potentially even $15, where I would look for longs as that is the last stand before bear market territory begins with a breakdown below $13.10. Briefly glancing at the daily, the sweep of $24.21 here has taken the pair into the 360dMA, which is also acting as support, so if LINK can show some strength here and reclaim $24.21 over the next day or two, I would be confident that this move lower into $21 has been a bear trap, with $27.85 the next key resistance to reclaim as support, followed by $30.77.
Turning to LINK/BTC, the picture is quite similar in that prior trendline support is now acting as resistance, with the pair rejecting at 70.8k satoshis and now moving back into the cluster of prior resistance turned support around 57-60k satoshis. The choppy price action here isn’t particularly attractive and I wouldn’t be interested in any position here unless we see 48k retested or 60.6k reclaimed, at which point I’d be comfortable in longs towards 80k satoshis; alternatively, if 48k satoshis does not hold as support and we see weekly closes below 45k, I’d be looking to short bounces back towards 34.7k satoshis and potentially lower.
Fantom:
FTM/USD
Weekly:
Daily:
FTM/BTC
Weekly:
Daily:
Price: $1.19 (2737 satoshis)
Market Cap: $3.017bn
Thoughts: Looking at FTM/USD, from the weekly we can see that the pair broke out above prior all-time highs at $0.98 and continued beyond the 1.618 extension at $1.49 into an all-time high just shy of $2, but ultimately closed the week back at $1.48, which has acted as resistance since. This week has seen price sell off from opening at the ATH weekly close, wicking below the prior two weekly lows into the previous ATH at $0.98, which is a perfect long setup for me. Invalidation on the pair is a weekly close back inside the prior ATH, as that would suggest the breakout to be a deviation and we’d be looking at a return towards the $0.57 area from there, in my opinion. If, however, $0.98 holds, I think we see $2.32 next. Looking at the daily, the pair has swept two swing-lows into this support and I see no reason to get bearish into a resistance > support flip following an all-time high breakout, but that’s what invalidation is for. If we see the pair move higher from here, I’m looking for acceptance above $1.48 to compound my longs, with the 2.618 extension as the primary target.
Turning to FTM/BTC, we can see that the pair is effectively in no man’s land following the breakout beyond the prior all-time high at 1877 satoshis, with price hitting 4200 satoshis before closing the week out at 3146, around which it consolidated last week. This week, the pair has sold off from that resistance but is holding above last week’s low for now. If we look at the daily, we can see this higher-low more clearly, and I’d be looking at a daily close above 3146 to confirm trend continuation from here towards the all-time high and beyond into the 1.618 extension at 5300 satoshis. If, however, 2400 fails to hold here as support, there would be a great dip buying opportunity back at 1900 satoshis, but I’d be concerned about how that gets mapped onto the Dollar pair, so it’s not a blind bid for me.
Zilliqa:
ZIL/USD
Weekly:
Daily:
ZIL/BTC
Weekly:
Daily:
Price: $0.09 (208 satoshis)
Market Cap: $1.063bn
Thoughts: Beginning with ZIL/USD, from the weekly we can see that the pair struggled at the 38.2% retracement of the down-swing at $0.13 a few weeks ago, wicking above it briefly into $0.14 but rejecting and moving lower the subsequent week, as far as $0.082 before being bought back up again. Last week saw the pair consolidate below resistance and inside that prior weekly range and we have since seen ZIL sell off and sweep the $0.082 low. If this now prints as a weekly swing-failure, I’d want to see strength next week to take the pair back above $0.105 as prior support turned resistance; if we see that, I think the pair will continue higher to retest $0.14 and likely break beyond it for a retest of the 61.8% retracement level at $0.18. If, however, price closes this week below $0.08, I think it is likely we move lower to retest range support down at $0.06, which as with many other mid-caps would be the last stand demand zone before a breakdown into bear market territory.
Looking at ZIL/BTC, the pair continues to consolidate in a tight range above support at 166 satoshis, with resistance currently being found around 240 satoshis. If we look at the daily for clarity, the pair is chopping between support at 200 and resistance at 240, with the 360dMA in the middle of the range at present. I’d be looking for a breakout and close above 243 here following the failed breakout from a couple of weeks ago to confirm that this range is a bottoming pattern as opposed to distribution, where price would then retest resistance at 309 satoshis. If this is further distribution, we will likely see 200 satoshis give way here and price lose the support at 166, with the next major level down at 100 satoshis, as prior range resistance.
Utrust:
UTK/USD
Weekly:
Daily:
UTK/BTC
Weekly:
Daily:
Price: $0.35 (816 satoshis)
Market Cap: $159.226mn
Thoughts: Looking firstly at UTK/USD on the weekly timeframe, we can see that the pair retested the ATH weekly close at $0.80, rejected and then spent several weeks consolidating around prior support at $0.47, which has since become resistance as price has moved lower, back into reclaimed support at $0.34. Whilst this is a minor level, the level below it is critical to hold at $0.25, as prior resistance turned support; if we move lower into that level, I will be looking to add to my position, as any weekly close below it will likely lead to $0.17 being retested. Hold above $0.25 and I think UTK retests $0.80 in Q4, with any weekly close above it naturally confirming trend continuation beyond the 2021 high into the all-time high at $1.48. If we look at the daily, we can see that the pair is sandwiched between the 200dMA as resistance and the 360dMA as support, and ideally this $0.34 will actually prove sufficient as a demand zone, where any move back above $0.47 from here would turn market structure bullish once again and we’d likely see that leg higher soon after.
Turning to UTK/BTC, the pair remains capped by historical support turned resistance at 1155 satoshis and until we see that weekly close above that level, UTK isn’t going anywhere fast. That said, support from November 2020 at 650 satoshis continues to hold for the pair and whilst UTK is trapped in this range, I am comfortable buying dips into range support. If 650 gives way, we may see 360 retested as the next major support, so I would not be looking to hold for that scenario. Assuming the pair does break out above 1155, I am looking at yearly resistance at 2000 satoshis as the first target.
Tellor:
TRB/USD
Weekly:
Daily:
TRB/BTC
Weekly:
Daily:
Price: $48.70 (0.00113 BTC)
Market Cap: $94.888mn
Thoughts: If we look firstly at TRB/USD, we can see that the pair formed a bottom at prior resistance turned support at $31, dipping below into $26.33 but never closing below $31. Since, the pair has reclaimed support at $46.28 and is now consolidating below $69.43, with major resistance above at $90.68. If we look at the daily, the pair is finding support at the 360dMA and I think this is a high R area for entries, as our invalidation on longs is a close below the prior swing-low and the 360dMA, where we could look to compound our position on a close above $69, looking for $90-93 as a primary target. If this support cluster is lost, I am bailing, with my next long entry down at $30 for a bounce back into $46 to retest it as resistance.
Turning to TRB/BTC, the pair has been consolidating above prior resistance at 97k satoshis for a few months now, struggling to break beyond reclaimed resistance around 120k satoshis. However, we are starting to see the pair push out of this tight range, but last week’s rejection on the breakout makes me think the pair isn’t quite ready yet. Nonetheless, these are ideal ranges for buying, as any close below 97k is invalidation of this support zone, where the next major support is all the way down at 58.9k satoshis; our targets, however, would be up at 250k satoshis, as the next major resistance, so risk/reward is very attractive.
And that concludes this week’s Market Outlook. Keep an eye out for the NFT-related post coming later this week.
I hope you’ve found value in the read and thank you for supporting my work!
As ever, feel free to leave any comments or questions below, or email me directly at nik@altcointradershandbook.com.
