You are currently viewing Market Outlook #145 (Altcoin Special)

Market Outlook #145 (Altcoin Special)

Market Outlook #145 (16th September 2021)

Hello, and welcome to the 145th instalment of my Market Outlook.

In this week’s Altcoin Special, I will be covering Curve, Ankr, Mirror Protocol, Akropolis, Aleph.im, Popsicle Finance, Umbrella Network, BSC Station and Step Finance.

Following Monday’s Outlook, it seems you guys couldn’t make up your mind as to whether you’d prefer the Altcoin Special or an NFT-related post, so I will be publishing both. The NFT-related post will be out next week!

As ever, if you have any requests for next week’s Outlook, please do let me know.

Curve:

CRV/USD

Weekly:

CRVUSDWeekly

Daily:

CRVUSDDaily

CRV/BTC

Weekly:

CRVBTCWeekly

Daily:

CRVBTCDaily

Price: $3.21 (6711 satoshis)

Market Cap: $1.371bn

Thoughts: If we begin by looking at CRV/USD, from the weekly we can see that the pair has been hugging support at $1.56 since February, having briefly dropped below that level into prior resistance at $1.03, which held firm, before price reclaimed $1.56 and is now pushing towards range resistance at $3.9, which has capped price since the beginning of the year. Volume is slowly increasing here and I like how price-action is unfolding into resistance, but I wouldn’t look to ape in as price hits the top of the range. Rather, I’d be looking for a weekly close above $3.90 to confirm the range breakout, from which point I’d expect the pair to enter a period of outperformance with no real resistance between there and $13.40. I absolutely want to be involved for that range. If we look at the daily, we can see that prior support has been reclaimed at $2.53, which was also a 200dMA reclaim. If we see the pair reject up here at $3.90 on the first attempt, I would be happy to buy a dip back into the $2.60 area, if it comes, with invalidation at $1.56; if that doesn’t occur, however, I am buying the range breakout and holding for $13.

Turning to CRV/BTC, this is a textbook accumulation range on the weekly, with the pair having spent the entirety of the year range-bound between support at 3500 satoshis and resistance at 9250, with the pair never having really experienced a bull cycle since inception. Again, weekly closes above range resistance at 9250 are what we are looking for, as there is only minor resistance at 15.3k satoshis above that before clear skies into 49k satoshis, although the market cap implications for such over-extension are a little bit OTT. Either way, once we clear 9250, I think CRV really starts to outperform. Looking at the daily, the pair has also reclaimed the 200dMA and 360dMA, having broken back above 4700 satoshis, and is now sitting below the 8.5-9.5k resistance. Again, I don’t want to be a buyer here in no man’s land, but I’d happily buy a dip back towards the 200dMA or a breakout above the range, with the first major target at 15.3k followed by 21.9k satoshis.


Ankr:

ANKR/USD

Weekly:

ANKRUSDWeekly

Daily:

ANKRUSDDaily

ANKR/BTC

Weekly:

ANKRBTCWeekly

Daily:

ANKRBTCDaily

Price: $0.10 (209 satoshis)

Market Cap: $766.634mn

Thoughts: Beginning with ANKR/USD, we can see on the weekly that the pair found support around $0.065 throughout May to August and has since rallied higher, reclaiming prior resistance at $0.092 as support but finding resistance at $0.126. The pair is now range-bound between these two levels and bulls will be wanting to see a weekly close through $0.126 to open up trend continuation into the final resistance at $0.17 before all-time highs. Turning to the daily, the pair broke back above the 200dMA (which has supported the trend the entire cycle) before rejecting at $0.126 and has since dropped back below the MA but is consolidating in a tight range between support at $0.0915 and the MA. Looking at this, we might have a high R entry right here with invalidation on a close back below $0.09, anticipating a breakout above $0.126 on the next push higher, beyond which I would be looking at $0.17 and finally the all-time high at $0.22.

Turning to ANKR/BTC, the pair has been finding resistance at prior support ~266 satoshis since July, but it continues to hold above prior resistance at 156, with minor support generally holding at 209. The daily is more clear here, as we can see that the pair was printing higher-lows above the 200dMA, up until a few days ago, with price now (much like the Dollar pair) consolidating in a tight range below the 200dMA but above local support at 209. Again, we could either anticipate that this move below the 200dMA is a fake-out, buy support here with invalidation on a break back below last week’s low, with a first target of 266 followed by the ATH weekly close at 350, or we could wait for 266 to be reclaimed and buy the breakout above that level, with invalidation below the 200dMA at that point, again looking for the ATH weekly close, followed by possible price discovery beyond that if we can close the weekly above it.


Mirror Protocol:

MIR/USD

Daily:

MIRUSDDaily2

MIR/BTC

Daily:

MIRBTCDaily

Price: $3.70 (7734 satoshis)

Market Cap: $288.025mn

Thoughts: Looking firstly at MIR/USD, we can see here that the pair has spent 116 days range-bound between support at $3.30 and resistance at $5.30, having briefly broken below the range in July into $2.50 before reclaiming range support, above which price currently sits. This is a textbook bottoming formation, and if we look back to February it looks like a protracted fractal of that bottom, where a bottom was found at $4.24, price ran the lows and then reclaimed support and then continued higher from there. As such, I am keen to be a buyer here as close to $3.30 as possible, looking to add to my position if and when we reclaimed $5.30 and the 200dMA, with the next target above at prior resistance ~$7.78. Break above this and I think Mirror moves to new all-time highs. My invalidation is $2.50.

Turning to MIR/BTC, again the pair has been range-bound for a while, with support having been found at 7k satoshis and resistance at 10.9k, although the pair has been struggling at prior support turned resistance at 9350 for the bulk of the time spent inside the range. I like that price is close to range support as our invalidation is again obvious and tight, with any close below 7k looking ominous. From here, bulls want to see 9350 reclaimed and flipped as support, which I think will become the base for a breakout above the historical pivot at 11k satoshis, beyond which there is very little resistance into 16.9k.


Akropolis:

AKRO/USD

Weekly:

AKROUSDWeekly

Daily:

AKROUSDDaily

AKRO/BTC

Weekly:

AKROBTCWeekly

Daily:

AKROBTCDaily

Price: $0.031 (66 satoshis)

Market Cap: $103.058mn

Thoughts: If we look firstly at AKRO/USD, from the weekly we can see that price formed range support at prior range resistance ~$0.0175, wicking below that level three times into $0.013 but failing to close below the level. Since, the pair has rallied back above prior support at $0.037 and found resistance at $0.05, which is historically significant, having capped price in August 2020 also. I would be looking for the pair to push on from here and retest that $0.05 level, assuming it holds above $0.0175 over the coming weeks, with any weekly close above that level the signal for a move towards $0.095 and likely new all-time highs at $0.128. On the daily, we can see that price is finding support at prior resistance at $0.024 but the 200dMA is also capping the pair, so we have a major resistance cluster here between the MA and $0.05; clear all of that and I don’t see why AKRO doesn’t have another cycle into price discovery beyond $1.30.

Turning to AKRO/BTC, we can see that the pair has been bottoming out in a classical cyclical manner since May, forming a tight range between support at 43 satoshis and resistance at 72 satoshis. This looks like an ideal range for entering a position, as any weekly close below 43 would likely lead to the yearly low at 25 satoshis being swept (hence we would be looking to exit and potentially rebuy down there). For the risk averse, a weekly close above 72 would be the signal that the pair is ready to move out of depression into disbelief with resistance at 160 satoshis, followed by prior support at 200 satoshis and finally the ATH weekly close and August 2020 resistance at 300 satoshis.


Aleph.im:

ALEPH/USD

Daily:

ALEPHUSDDaily

ALEPH/BTC

Daily:

ALEPHBTCDaily

Price: $0.53 (1104 satoshis)

Market Cap: $57.824mn

Thoughts: Beginning with ALEPH/USD, we can see here that the pair found support at $0.123 in late July and has since been on a tear, rallying to reclaim support at $0.27 and breaking back above $0.35 last week, which prompted a high-volume leg higher into the historical resistance cluster between $0.55 and the all-time high at $0.72. The pair is now consolidating right around the top of this historical range, and I think if it can now hold around $0.54 and find acceptance above the level, we are likely going to see that all-time high get blown out and the pair enter price discovery. For buying opportunities, I would personally be looking for acceptance above $0.72 before entering rather than entering here at resistance, with invalidation on a close back inside $0.54 at that point.

Turning to ALEPH/BTC, this pair has effectively been in a large range its entire existence, having initially pumped into all-time highs at 5631 satoshis in September 2020 and then collapsed back to initial support at 536 satoshis later that month, printing an all-time low at 260 satoshis and then rallying into resistance at 1450 satoshis. This 260 to 1450 range has now been in play for nearly a full year, with the pair finding support on multiple occasions above 260 and rejecting at 1450. The pair has recently reclaimed the 200dMA and broken above the 360dMA for the first time in its existence, which is promising. Though it might not map on to the Dollar pair, if the BTC pair does see a dip back towards 905 I’d consider that a dip-buying opportunity for the eventual range breakout, with the first target above at 2400 satoshis, which at current BTC/USD prices would put ALEPH above $1.


Popsicle Finance:

ICE/USD

Daily:

ICEUSDDaily

ICE/BTC

Daily:

ICEBTCDaily

Price: $2.28 (4758 satoshis)

Market Cap: $31.348mn

Thoughts: If we begin by looking at ICE/USD, we can see that the pair had been trending down since inception until it found support at $1.25, following which it has been range-bound between that support and prior support turned resistance at $2.77, having briefly wicked below support twice into an all-time low at $0.95 but immediately reclaimed support. The pair broke out above range resistance last week, rejecting at $3.39 before returning inside the range and now trading back into reclaimed support at $1.97. I would now expect this area to begin forming a higher-low in the trend since August, with any move below $1.69 invalidating the trend. If the pair can hold above $1.97, I think we see another push above the range into prior support at $3.85, with a daily close above that leading to a retest of $5.

Turning to ICE/BTC, the pair lost 85% of its value from the all-time high at 16.1k satoshis and formed an all-time low at 2470 satoshis in August, then rallying off the lows and reclaimed historical support at 4735, above which it is currently sitting. This is likely the point of maximal opportunity for ICE if the trend is to continue higher, with invalidation on a move back below 4k satoshis, where I would then look to buy closer to the all-time low. For those that follow the fixed risk approach for low-caps, risk reward is high here to accumulate a 1% position around 4700 satoshis with an exit only on new all-time lows (~50% lower and thus a 0.5% capital loss), with a cyclical target of new all-time highs above 16.1k satoshis, which, if the Fantom ecosystem continues to grow, should not be a problem at all.


Umbrella Network:

UMB/USD

Daily:

UMBUSDDaily

UMB/BTC

Daily:

UMBBTCDaily

Price: $0.22 (465 satoshis)

Market Cap: $19.081mn

Thoughts: Umbrella is a token I have begun accumulating here as a sector play for Oracles.

If we look at UMB/USD, we can see that the pair has been in a downtrend since inception losing 97% of its value from the all-time high at $2.54 (formed in the first trading week). Price eventually formed an all-time low at $0.078 but has spent the bulk of the past four months trading between range support at $0.167 and resistance at $0.29. I am beginning a cyclical position inside this range and exiting if the pair loses $0.167, looking for a breakout above range resistance to add, with a primary target of prior support turned resistance at $1.11 followed by an eventual retest of the all-time high, as the pair has not experienced a bull cycle.

Turning to UMB/BTC, this chart is even more attractive, given the 68-day accumulating range that has formed below prior support turned resistance at 516 satoshis, where we can look to enter inside this range with an exit either on the loss of 370 for a better R ratio or an exit at new all-time lows below 228. If we break out above 520, I would consider that the beginning of a cyclical reversal as the pair has failed to reclaim any prior support on its way down. First target is 1067 satoshis, where the 200dMA sits, followed by 2300, 3200 and finally the all-time high at 5500 satoshis in potentially several months time.


BSC Station:

BSCS/USD

Daily:

BSCSUSDDaily

BSCS/BTC

Daily:

BSCSBTCDaily

Price: $0.15 (319 satoshis)

Market Cap: $5.665mn

Thoughts: If we look firstly at BSCS/USD, we can see a similar sort of chart to that of Umbrella, where the pair has spent the bulk of its existence in a downtrend, although it did have an initial pump on listing from support at $0.15 into the all-time high at $1.22. Following that, however, the pair declined for several months until an all-time low formed at $0.04, leading to a sharp, high-volume buy-up back into prior support turned resistance at $0.15. Since, the pair has been finding support at $0.075 and remains capped by $0.15, below which it is currently consolidating. I would expect to see this resistance give way here and for price to close above $0.19 in the coming days, which would be disbelief in my opinion, with the next resistance above at $0.27 followed by more significant resistance at $0.54. Ultimately, I think this climbs back towards the all-time high at $1.22 from here over the coming months, with invalidation on a close back below support at $0.075.


Step Finance:

STEP/USD

Daily:

STEPUSDDaily

STEP/BTC

Daily:

STEPBTCDaily

Price: $1.00 (2086 satoshis)

Market Cap: $3.998mn

Thoughts: Finally, looking at STEP/USD, we can see that the pair was annihilated over the past few months, losing 98% of its value between inception in late April (and the formation of the all-time high at $10.28) and mid-July, where it formed an all-time low at $0.16. Since, the pair has been rallying non-stop, reclaiming prior support at $1 earlier this month and poking its head above resistance at $1.24, where it has struggled. Nonetheless, I think this support cluster between $0.82 and $1 should now hold as higher-lows in the trend and I would expect to see STEP push on towards $2.27 from here, with no resistance between that level and the next level at $4.54.

Turning to STEP/BTC, the picture is pretty much identical, with the pair having found resistance at 3430 last week and now retracing on declining volume into prior resistance turned support at 1737 satoshis, which I think is a good dip-buying opportunity, with invalidation on a loss of that level, as I would then expect the pair to retrace another 50% potentially back into support at 900 satoshis. If 1700 can hold, however, I would expect the 3430 resistance to get blown out on the next push higher, with 5225 satoshis the next major resistance above.

And that concludes this week’s Market Outlook.

I hope you’ve found value in the read and thank you for supporting my work!

As ever, feel free to leave any comments or questions below, or email me directly at nik@altcointradershandbook.com.


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