You are currently viewing Market Outlook #142

Market Outlook #142

Market Outlook #142 (30th August 2021)

Hello, and welcome to the 142nd instalment of my Market Outlook.

In this week’s post, I will be covering Bitcoin, Ethereum, Cardano, XRP, Litecoin, Ethereum Classic, Fantom, Zilliqa and COTI.

As ever, if you have any requests, please do drop me an email or leave a comment.

Bitcoin:

Weekly:

BTCUSDWeekly

Daily:

BTCUSDDaily

Price: $48,239

Market Cap: $901.374bn

Thoughts: If we begin by looking at the weekly chart for BTC/USD, we can see that price behaved almost exactly as we were expecting following the recent rally into resistance on declining volume. Price, having closed the prior week at weekly highs just shy of $50k, briefly poked above the $50k level last week and found resistance, selling off albeit mildly into support at $47k and then closing back near the weekly open, at $48.8k. This again occurred on declining volume for the 5th consecutive week, which is promising for bulls, as it indicates minor weakness at significant resistance as opposed to anything more sinister, for now. The fact that we only swept the $50k area by a minimal margin before rejection is what I wanted to see as someone who is positioned for more upside here, particularly given the immediate support found at $47k. Now, that isn’t to say that the dip is done; as mentioned last week, we could conceivably move down towards $42.5k from here and still be looking rather bullish for Q4. If we do start to break below last week’s low at $46k (and thus the 200dMA), I would expect that deeper retracement to play out, where we take out the series of daily swing-lows into $42k before forming a higher-low and taking another crack at $50k in Q4. However, hold above $46k this week (or sweep the $46k lows and print a swing-failure of that key support cluster on the daily) and I would expect us to simply move higher in the manner of this entire rally, breaking sharply through resistance and then consolidating above it for a short while.

Looking at the daily, we can see this more clearly, where having broken back above the April low at $46.9k, that level is now acting as support with price failing to close below that level, despite wicking below it into 200dMA support. If we can hold that area between $46-47k, I think we see BTC move towards $57k next. As I said, break below that cleanly and I think we take out the two lows around $43.6k also, as that would provide plenty of liquidity for another go at $50k.


Ethereum:

ETH/USD

Weekly:

ETHUSDWeekly

Daily:

ETHUSDDaily

ETH/BTC

Weekly:

ETHBTCWeekly

Daily:

ETHBTCDaily

Price: $3192 (0.0662 BTC)

Market Cap: $372.374bn

Thoughts: Beginning with ETH/USD, on the weekly we can see that price continues to struggle at the 61.8% retracement level, where it has been consolidating below $3360 for three weeks now. Last week saw price poke its head just above the previous week’s high but no breakout was possible, with volume declining once again. Thus, the picture remains the same here as last week. In order to play the next leg higher into $3800+, we need to see signs of acceptance above $3360. Until then, longs aren’t favourable here. On the flip side, if we see last week’s low give way and price hold below it, we could see the $2900 resistance turned support give way, which would lead to the $2720 level being tested, as can be seen more clearly on the daily. To be honest, we continue to put in higher lows inside this consolidation range and so I am leaning towards an upside breakout here beyond $3360 this week or next. In the event that does occur, I’d look for a daily close above the level on good volume and then look to long an intraday pull-back for a run into $3800. If we break down here, I’d look to buy $2720 for a quick bounce, followed by a larger long entry if we get as low as $2425, where prior resistance and the 200dMA sits. I am not looking to short ETH/USD for any extended period of time whilst we remain above the 200dMA, long-term trendline support and the $1730 support base.

Turning to ETH/BTC, the picture again has not really changed, with last week being a very small weekly range on low volume, as the pair consolidates below resistance. The weekly chart is not particularly relevant here given the lack of movement of late, so if we drop into the daily, we can see just how low the volatility is here, with price simply chopping around in a tight range between support at 0.064 and resistance at 0.069 for the most part. As a reminder, I am expect the 0.064 support to hold here and for ETH to push on when the consolidation ends, as market structure here is bullish, and I’d be looking for a daily close back above 0.07 to signal the next leg higher into 0.078. If we lose 0.064, the major support zones are between 0.058-0.06 and 0.054-0.055; lose that latter level and the picture becomes quite different.


XRP:

XRP/USD

Weekly:

XRPUSDWeekly

Daily:

XRPUSDDaily

XRP/BTC

Weekly:

XRPBTCWeekly

Daily:

XRPBTCDaily

Price: $1.13 (2379 satoshis)

Market Cap: $53.124bn

Thoughts: Beginning with XRP/USD, we can see on the weekly that having put in a local top at the 38.2% fib retracement of the 2018 bear market at $1.37, XRP has spent the past two weeks consolidating between this high as resistance and prior resistance turned support at $1.11. Given the strength of the move off the base, I do expect we will see some continuation from here but it is unsurprising we are now consolidating in this range, and the first indicator of a push higher will be when the daily can close above $1.37; do that and I think longs are favourable until we take out the double top at $1.76, where acceptance above those highs would push the pair to new yearly highs. However, holding this local support between $1.05 and $1.11 is critical for short-term bullishness, as a loss of $1.05 would turn daily structure bearish and I’d expect at least another 15% drop into the 200dMA and prior support at $0.92, where I would look to buy for a bounce.

Turning to XRP/BTC, as expected following the break back above multiple levels of support, price is now consolidating between two key levels: support at 2250 and resistance at 3070 satoshis. If we look at the daily, the pair is printing somewhat of a bull-flag into support having found resistance initially just shy of 3072 satoshis, and I would expect the pair to push on from here and break above that level, where a daily close above it would likely send XRP to retest the major resistance cluster at 4000 satoshis. Lose 2250 and no doubt we see the support cluster at 1900 retested, which, in my opinion, would be a great dip-buying opportunity.


Cardano:

ADA/USD

Weekly:

ADAUSDWeekly

Daily:

ADAUSDDaily

ADA/BTC

Weekly:

ADABTCWeekly

Daily:

ADABTCDaily

Price: $2.81 (5863 satoshis)

Market Cap: $89.51bn

Thoughts: If we begin by looking at ADA/USD, we can see from the weekly that following the smash through resistance at $1.94 a couple of weeks ago, price found new support at that prior resistance and has since continued to new all-time highs, with last week printing a high at $3.04, before closing at $2.85, just above the 200% extension of the entire bear market. From here, I think we see continuation, as volume continues to tick higher each week despite the push higher, and two straight weekly closes through the prior all-time high at $2.52 is quite telling. I would expect the next level of resistance to be found at the 2.618 extension around $3.65. Regarding dip-buying, I’d look for any sweep of the swing-low at $2.50 – right by the prior all-time high – as an opportunity to jump in, as seen more clearly on the daily.

Turning  to ADA/BTC, the pair has broken clean through numerous resistance levels, with the week before last blasting through yearly highs at 5060 satoshis and closing firmly above them on decent volume. Last week saw continuation through the 61.8% retracement at 5638 satoshis, with price again closing through that resistance on growing volume. In fact, last week saw the pair capped right at the all-time high weekly close at 6100 satoshis, which I have mentioned in previous posts would be the key level to break if ADA wants to make us all feel like idiots for doubting it. If the pair can close the weekly above this level, I would expect to see the 78.6% retracement of the bear market get tagged at 7060 satoshis, which would put ADA well above a $100bn valuation… lol


Litecoin:

LTC/USD

Weekly:

LTCUSDWeekly

Daily:

LTCUSDDaily

LTC/BTC

Weekly:

LTCBTCWeekly

Daily:

LTCBTCDaily

Price: $172.73 (0.00361 BTC)

Market Cap: $11.586bn

Thoughts: If we look at LTC/USD, on the weekly we can see that the rally off the base has dragged the pair up into reclaimed resistance at $183, around which it has been consolidating for three weeks, with last week closing just below the level. This consolidation is healthy followed a near 100% move off the lows in July and I would be looking for a weekly close above last week’s high to provide the momentum for Litecoin to retest the breakdown area at $220, which is the most critical level I can see here; flip that level and I think $254 provides no resistance at all and we instead see LTC squeeze as high as major resistance at $328 before things get troublesome. Looking at the daily, the pair is sandwiched between the 360dMA below and the 200dMA above, providing confluence for this resistance area. If we see a dip from here into that confluence of support at $147, I will look for longs back into $183. Break cleanly above the 200dMA and I will wait for the reaction at $220 before taking any positions, as there isn’t great risk/reward for longs between the 200dMA and that major resistance.

Turning to LTC/BTC, the pair has retraced all the way back towards historical support at 0.00323, having bounced just above it and reclaimed the 0.0036 area. From here, I would be looking for this higher low to hold on the daily and for the pair to now reclaim 0.00374; break above that and I think we’re good for longs back into the cluster of resistance at 0.0042, where the 360dMA, 200dMA and prior support turned resistance sit. If, however, this area is lost, and price moves back below 0.003475, I’d expect the August double bottom to be taken out and for price to return to sweep the April low at 0.003227, where bulls would really need to see a show of strength. Until we’re back above 0.0042, however, I don’t think LTC is the play, as there is a much cleaner range to play once we break that all the way back into resistance at 0.00545.


Ethereum Classic:

ETC/USD

Weekly:

ETCUSDWeekly

Daily:

ETCUSDDaily

ETC/BTC

Weekly:

ETCBTCWeekly

Daily:

ETCBTCDaily

Price: $62.71 (0.00131 BTC)

Market Cap: $8.023bn

Thoughts: If we begin by look at ETC/USD, we can see from the weekly that following the run up earlier this year beyond previous all-time highs at $48, the pair hit highs of $177 before retracing all the way back into the prior highs and below in May, wicking below initially into $39 before sweeping that low in June into prior resistance turned support at $31. The pair did close that week back above $39.60, however, thus printing a swing-failure into demand, and the following higher-low held above that $39.60 area, providing the base for the rally back above $48 that has taken the pair to $78 as of a couple of weeks. There is zero resistance between here and the all-time high weekly close at $119 if we look strictly at higher timeframe levels. Dropping into the daily, we can see that the 200dMA has been supporting the pair the entire trend and failed to give way on two attempts throughout Q2 and Q3. From here, I would expect to see this flagging pattern below prior support turned resistance at $75 to lead to trend continuation, where a daily close back above that level would signal a move into that ATH weekly close at $118, thus we could look to play that range. Alternatively, I’d been keen to buy ETC if we see a dip into $48, which would align with a 200dMA retest.

Turning to ETC/BTC, the pair is holding above the 200wMA and consolidating after its major run up earlier this year. This is a fantastic looking chart, as not only did we see a strong move higher into resistance at 0.003 earlier this year, but the pair has since retraced into reclaimed support at 0.00115 (ignore the label – it is reclaimed support). The fact that we are now consolidating above historical support and a significant weekly moving average suggests to me that there is another leg in this, and invalidation for longs is very clean: if we see a weekly close below the 200wMA and 0.0011, that would be bearish, thus buys here are favourable. I would expect the minor resistance at 0.00173 to give way eventually and once we see a close above there, I think another parabolic leg will begin for ETC, with 0.006 the next major resistance above.


Fantom:

FTM/USD

Weekly:

FTMUSDWeekly

Daily:

FTMUSDDaily

FTM/BTC

Weekly:

Daily:

FTMBTCDaily

Price: $0.682 (1425 satoshis)

Market Cap: $1.766bn

Thoughts: Beginning with FTM/USD, we can see form the weekly that the pair has gone from strength to strength following the breakout beyond prior resistance turned support at $0.41, where price then closed the weekly at resistance ~$0.57, retested $0.41 as support and today has pushed beyond, towards the final resistance below the all-time high at $0.91. The pair is now in no man’s land and I wouldn’t look for any new trades this week in FTM, except to possibly shave some profits if this extends into $0.91. If we do see that extension, I’d expect some resistance to be found on the first test as the all-time high is just above at $0.98. Beyond that, a weekly close above $0.91 would confirm for me that Fantom is ready for price discovery. Looking at the daily, the pair flipped the 200dMA as support before the most recent break higher and if today closes up here above the 61.8% retracement level at $0.67, I would be interested in buying a dip back into $0.57 if it came but to be honest I think we see this just squeeze higher and I don’t want to chase it.

Turning to FTM/BTC, the pair is now pressing up against the all-time high weekly close at 1576 satoshis, and bulls will want to see a close above this for the first time in Fantom’s history. Looking at the daily, the pair is rejecting right at the level, as one would expect, but if bulls are in control I would now expect to see another attempt made this week to close above it, where any daily close above 1600 would likely lead to that all-time high at 1877 getting taken out, which would be a good place for spot holders to take some profits.


Zilliqa:

ZIL/USD

Weekly:

ZILUSDWeekly

Daily:

ZILUSDDaily

ZIL/BTC

Weekly:

ZILBTCWeekly

Daily:

ZILBTCDaily

Price: $0.11 (228 satoshis)

Market Cap: $1.275bn

Thoughts: If we firstly look at ZIL/USD, we can see that after the strong bounce back into prior support turned resistance and the original breakdown level at $0.10, the pair has been consolidating between support at $0.095 and resistance at $0.115, with last week wicking into both levels but closing near the weekly open, indicating indecision. It is paramount for trend continuation that this area not become a macro lower-high; we want to see a weekly close through $0.12 to open up further upside into $0.175 and potentially beyond back towards the all-time high. If, however, the pair fails here and closes the weekly back below $0.095, I’d expect a move lower to potentially form another higher low above $0.068 before attempting the breakout again, as we can see on the daily.

Turning to ZIL/BTC, the picture is as it has been for weeks, with the pair hanging right at prior resistance around 225 satoshis, above and below which it continues to chop. If we drop into the daily for clarity, we can see that the pair is now tussling with the 360dMA after moving below it for a couple of weeks for the  first time since May 2020 (excluding the three or four days in November where it found support right at the MA). If we can flip this MA back as support as well as prior support turned resistance at 243, I’d expect to see the pair move back towards the 200dMA, where any reclaim of that area would appear as though the trend is back on track, with major resistance above between 310 and 344.


COTI:

COTI/USD

Weekly:

COTIUSDWeekly

Daily:

COTIUSDDaily

COTI/BTC

Weekly:

COTIBTCWeekly

Daily:

COTIBTCDaily

Price: $0.34 (708 satoshis)

Market Cap: $295.634mn

Thoughts: Beginning with COTI/USD, we can see that last week brought the much-anticipated breakout above trendline resistance, as COTI announced listings on Coinbase Pro and Huobi. This sent the pair straight through the trendline into major resistance at $0.51, which capped price. The pair then rejected but managed to close the week above the trendline on growing volume. If we look at the daily, from here I would expect to see more consolidation now above reclaimed support at $0.31 – hold above that and I think we take another crack at $0.51 in the coming weeks, and once that gives way… price discovery with two new prominent exchanges.

Turning to COTI/BTC, the pair ran straight into triple top resistance at 955 satoshis and rejected, closing the weekly back below key resistance at 944 but firmly above the support level at 556 satoshis. However, if we look at the daily we can see that the daily was able to close through resistance at 955 (a first in its history) but the pair was unable to hold that area and I am now thinking we form a higher low above 556 and the 200dMA and then test the resistance zone for a fourth time. Once we break above that zone – and I believe we will – I think we catapult into the all-time high at 1300 satoshis.

And that concludes this week’s Market Outlook. 

I hope you’ve found value in the read and thank you for supporting my work!

As ever, feel free to leave any comments or questions below, or email me directly at nik@altcointradershandbook.com.


[mc4wp_form id=”95″]

This Post Has 6 Comments

  1. erik corradino

    Great newsletter- when you can cover Alchemix, Iluvium, Tixl and coldstack- very interesting projects. I purchased Thorchain and Zilliqa because of your newsletter- so far thorchain worked out very well – with Zill Im waiting.

    1. Nik

      Covered for you – yep waiting on ZIL also.

  2. Hector Parra

    Hi Nik,
    I’ve been in the space for 4 years: mining, holding, speculating, staking…
    But I can’t manage to speculate with NFTs, they seem so overpriced to me, I think I don’t fully understand them.
    I know you have been buying NFTs lately.
    It would be awesome if you could do a piece on how to speculate with NFTs, or at least, make us understand why buying jpeg of rocks is a good idea 🙂

  3. seetharama dammalapati

    Hi Nik, If time permits, Please cover OMG token in the next week market outlook.

  4. seetharama dammalapati

    Thanks Nik for the SOL analysis when it was around $38. Could you please cover SOL in the next week market outlook . Also If time permits , can you pls cover good tokens related to trending tech like NFT.

Leave a Reply