Market Outlook #14 (2nd December 2018)
Welcome to the fourteenth Market Outlook. In today’s post, I’ll be covering the past week’s price-action in Bitcoin, Monero and Ethereum, as usual, as well as taking a look at Waves. I hope you enjoy the read!
Market Cap: $72.51bn
Thoughts: In last week’s Market Outlook, I expected a relief rally to $4200. This past week has seen the recent Bitcoin capitulation come to a momentary pause. Price found a bottom above $3600, and has since formed a short-term range between that bottom and $4450. The Daily chart shows that we have seen the most volume on Bitfinex since February, with price also refusing to close inside the Daily bullish orderblock. Further, looking back at the prior two weeks of price-action, there is a an area of illiquid movement between $5-5.4k; an upside breakout from this range would lead to that inefficiency being filled in, I would imagine. Now, looking at the 4H chart, we can see that price has broken above the short-term trendline resistance on significant volume. The range of price-action now has several swing-highs and swing-lows yet untouched, thus providing no clear indication of direction. The decreasing volume recently would suggest that the short-term bullish momentum may soon end and price may dip below $3940 back into the orderblock. However, whilst price remains above this level, I would expect the multitude of untouched swing-highs above $4450 to be the next point-of-interest.
Price: $59.83 (0.01437 BTC)
Market Cap: $994.14mn (238,793 BTC)
Thoughts: Monero’s Daily charts against both Bitcoin and the Dollar are rather simple and telling. Looking at XMR/USD, price has traded into an area of prior resistance from last summer, with it looking as though it has turned support. To deal with the bearish scenario firstly, a break of the low that has formed at $59 would see price swiftly reach for support at ~$46. That being said, if this current low can hold, I can see a move back towards ~$83 to test the support now turned resistance. The XMR/BTC Daily chart reinforces this potential footpath for price, as we can see price has traded into a Daily bullish orderblock and is currently failing to close above short-term trendline resistance. A close above this resistance on significant volume would indicate that the bottom is in. Further confirmation of this would come with a Daily close above the pivot area. However, if price continues to trade below this trendline, the lows at 0.013 BTC would be in play. I’m sure we’ll find out soon enough…
Price: $117.28 (0.0281 BTC)
Market Cap: $12.144bn (2,917,195 BTC)
Thoughts: ETH/USD on the Daily time-frame has one particular point-of-interest from the past couple of weeks: a period of the highest-ever traded volume on Bitfinex. Such significant volume is usually indicative of the height (or depth) of capitulation; and thus the level of prior resistance at ~$100 from May 2017 seems to have become a short-term bottom, at the very least. Looking at ETH/BTC on the 4H chart, it does seem as though this theory holds true. Volume has been decreasing for the past two weeks despite price dropping into the 4H bullish orderblock. I would expect a bounce soon and an attempt at closing the 4H above 0.0293 BTC – this would confirm a short-term bullish reversal.
Price: $1.51 (36246 satoshis)
Market Cap: $150.9mn (36,246 BTC)
Thoughts: Waves is a beautiful sight to behold. The dowtrend on near-zero volume culminated in a spring and breakout on high volume. Price has since continued to climb and is making its way towards short-term resistance at ~41k satoshis. A close on the Daily above this level would open up further upside towards the significant support turned resistance at 50k satoshis. A reversal is certainly well underway…
I hope this fourteenth Market Outlook has proved somewhat useful. Feel free to leave any questions in the Comments section and I’ll get back to you as best I can.
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