You are currently viewing Market Outlook #139

Market Outlook #139

Market Outlook #139 (16th August 2021)

Hello, and welcome to the 139th instalment of my Market Outlook.

In this week’s post, I will be covering Bitcoin, Ethereum, XRP, Chainlink, Enjin Coin, Utrust, Audius and ARPA Chain.

Later this week, I will be publishing another longer Altcoin Special, in which I will also be providing updated analysis on Altcoin Market Cap and my expectations for the rest of 2021.

As ever, if you have any requests, please do drop me an email or leave a comment.

Bitcoin:

Weekly:

BTCUSDWeekly

Daily:

BTCUSDDaily

Price: $47,203

Market Cap: $888.167bn

Thoughts: If we begin by looking at BTC/USD on the weekly timeframe, we can see that last week saw price squeeze higher into the April low, as expected, where it is now beginning to find some resistance between $47-48k. Last week also saw another decline in weekly volume traded, thus we are seeing a pattern of declining volume as price approaches the key resistance area that has been highlighted for months now. As we know, price does not go up in a straight line and it is very much within the realms of possibility if below the major resistance at $50k we see BTC dip lower to potentially retest the range breakout or even front-run it and print a higher-low (as will be made clear from the daily timeframe). Looking at this, however, it is clear we have momentum but that we are starting to run out of fuel and it may be that the next couple of weeks see price move lower before a breach of $50k is attempted. If and when we do clear and close above $50k, however, I expect price to make a squeeze towards resistance around $56.5-$58k, which would be the final test before new all-time highs. As I have said for weeks, we do not know whether we are pushing higher to form a macro lower-high or continuation of the trend to new highs just yet, and the important price-action is yet to come; if and when we do dip lower, the reaction will be key – break back inside the range at $42k and this will be perceived as a complacency shoulder and failed breakout and we are likely to move back to the range low at $28k, in my opinion; hold above $42k and form a higher-low and I think we push on towards that $58k major resistance.

Turning to the daily, we can see that price closed above the April low at $46.9k and pushed higher into $48.2k before finding resistance, with the pair now consolidating above the 200dMA, forming untested higher-lows with every push higher. Overhead, we have the $50k level, just shy of the 61.8% retracement at $51k, and I expect that range to hold firm as resistance on the first test. If we do reject on the next push higher (or even just sweep $48.2k and then break down), I would be looking for the most recent swing-lows at $45.3k and $43.7k to be taken out and I would then look for a swing-failure of the latter level or bullish price-action around $42k to look for fresh longs for another test of $50k. If, by some miracle, we break and close above $50k on the weekly, I will be looking for intraday dips towards the April low at $47k (then turned support) to get long for the mother of all squeezes towards $57k. I am leaning towards rejection at $50k initially, but let’s see what happens over the next week or so…


Ethereum:

ETH/USD

Weekly:

ETHUSDWeekly

Daily:

ETHUSDDaily

ETH/BTC

Weekly:

ETHBTCWeekly

Daily:

ETHBTCDaily

Price: $3281 (0.06941 BTC)

Market Cap: $383.851bn

Thoughts: Beginning with ETH/USD, we can see that the pair continues to push higher, having turned market structure bullish once again following EIP-1559, with price now pressing up against the 61.8% retracement ~$3364 of the downswing from the all-time high. Looking at the weekly, if we begin to push above $3360, I think we see the ATH weekly close retested, just above the 78.6% retracement around $3900, which – like $58k for BTC – is the final resistance before all-time highs. The worry here is that we are now in the area most likely to become a complacency shoulder, where any dip towards say $2912 as prior resistance should get bought up as new support as opposed to traded back through, in my opinion. Looking now at the daily, we can see that price is now just about hovering above local trendline support that has been in play this entire move up from $1700, with price capped by the 61.8% retracement level at $3364. As I said, if we pop above that, there is no resistance for another 10-15% move higher. If we break down below trendline support, I’d be looking for the two recent swing-lows above $2912 to be swept into that support area and then for buyers to step in for the next leg. If we break down below $2912, I’d begin to get concerned, but any higher low above long-term trendline support and $2426 would still be promising; ultimately we don’t want to see price form a high here and then lose trendline support that has held since March 2020, as that would strongly indicate complacency.

Turning to ETH/BTC, price, having broken bearish market structure, is now hovering around the key level at 0.069. As I said last week, I want to see a weekly close through 0.0734 to confirm bulls are in control here but the structure is certainly bullish and I would expect new yearly highs to follow over the coming weeks assuming we now hold above 0.06. Looking at the daily briefly, we can see this consolidation more clearly, where price is sandwiched between 0.068 and 0.072. Any daily close above 0.0734 from here and I think the pair starts accelerating towards 0.086.


XRP:

XRP/USD

Weekly:

XRPUSDWeekly

Daily:

XRPUSDDaily

XRP/BTC

Weekly:

XRPBTCWeekly

Daily:

XRPBTCDaily

Price: $1.30 (2721 satoshis)

Market Cap: $60.283bn

Thoughts: Finally, XRP has lift-off from its support base. Looking firstly at XRP/USD, we can see here that price – having reclaimed resistance at $0.77 for weeks – broke firmly through the level last week, with the weekly open finding support at $0.77 and not looking back, with the pair pushing through prior support turned resistance at $0.91 all the way to the 37.2% retracement of the 2018 bear market at $1.35, thus turning market structure bullish as of the close. Any dip back towards $1.11 is now a clear buying opportunity in my opinion, as the historical resistance zone between $0.57 and $0.77 has now successfully been flipped as support, and so I would expect to see XRP push on to retest the yearly high at $2 from here over the coming weeks. Turning to the daily, we can see that price has been accelerating since the double bottom was put in at $0.51, and the push through $0.91 last week gave the pair the momentum to break that weekly bearish structure. As I said, if we now see a local top form here and price move lower to retest $1.11, I would look at lower timeframe price-action for long entries in that area to hold for a sweep of the highs at $1.76 at least.

Turning to XRP/BTC, after several weeks of tightening weekly ranges, last week saw the pair push through several minor resistance levels and one major level at 2246 satoshis, closing at weekly highs on the highest volume in a couple of months. The pair is now sitting ~10% shy of strong resistance around 3070 satoshis, and if we drop into the daily we can see that the 1900-satoshis area became the launchpad, as expected. If we now reject below 3070, I would like to see 2246 retested as support, where buys are favourable for the inevitable push towards historical resistance at 4000 satoshis.


Chainlink:

LINK/USD

Weekly:

LINKUSDWeekly

Daily:

LINKUSDDaily

LINK/BTC

Weekly:

LINKBTCWeekly

Daily:

LINKBTCDaily

Price: $29.36 (62,440 satoshis)

Market Cap: $13.14bn

Thoughts: If we look firstly at LINK/USD, from the weekly we can see that the pair finally bounced back into the breakdown area at $27.84 last week, closing marginally above it and having continue higher today. We are now approaching trendline support from March 2020 from beneath that may well become resistance, with major overhead resistance at $35.83 into $37.51. In effect, there is now significant resistance capping LINK and I am intrigued to see how it fares – I doubt the first attempt will provide a breakout, but any weekly close back above trendline support and above $37 is likely to lead to acceleration into the all-time high at $54.30. If we look at the daily, the pair is now breaking back above the 200dMA and I would like to see continuation into resistance at $35 from here followed by a dip back into the 200dMA and $27.85 as reclaimed support. If we see that, I would be convinced of a push towards all-time highs to follow for LINK. If, however, the pair rejects below the overhead resistance and then breaks back below the 200dMA, I would expect $21 to be retested as support, with any loss of that level confirming complacency and the likelihood of a much more protracted bear market.

Turning to LINK/BTC, the picture is quite similar here, except that the pair is now pushing above the key resistance following last week’s close above 57k satoshis. If we see price now hold above 60.6k satoshis as the final major resistance in this area, I would expect to see the Q1 2021 high at 80k satoshis retested over the coming weeks. Looking at the daily, at present the 200dMA is proving difficult to overcome, but a daily close above 63.5k satoshis leaves little resistance for the next 20% higher, so I will be looking for LINK longs as soon as I see that.


Enjin Coin:

ENJ/USD

Weekly:

ENJUSDWeekly

Daily:

ENJUSDDaily

ENJ/BTC

Weekly:

ENJBTCWeekly

Daily:

ENJBTCDaily

Price: $1.70 (3604 satoshis)

Market Cap: $1.417bn

Thoughts: Beginning with ENJ/USD, we can see on the weekly that the pair had been capped by prior all-time highs at $0.55 since 2018 until the breakout early this year beyond the level, which became support. Since, the pair has climbed to new all-time highs at $4.03, where price rejected and returned to prior resistance turned support at $0.71 in May, above which a bottom has been forming. Following several weekly higher-lows, last week saw price marginally close back above the breakdown support turned resistance at $1.64, and I would expect to see ENJ now squeeze higher into the cluster of resistances above from here. If we look at the daily, we can see this resistance more clearly, where the pair has just broken above the 200dMA but still has the 38.2% retracement and prior support at $1.92 to contend with. If that level is cleared, I think we see ENJ accelerate towards the 78.6% retracement and March high at $3.33, as that is the next major resistance before the all-time high.

Turning to ENJ/BTC, the past couple of months have been very choppy for the pair but it has held up well above prior resistance turned support at 2600 satoshis. At present, it appears to be range-bound between 2600 and resistance at 5500 satoshis, with price having failed to close above that level all year. That said, it has just formed a third successive higher-low on the weekly, with several lower-highs having also formed on recent bounces, so I would now simply wait for market structure to be broken to the upside with a weekly close above 4500 before anything else. If that happens, the pair would enter dip-buying mode and I would expect to see resistance at 5500 retested, with any weekly close above that becoming the highest close in ENJ/BTC history and thus opening up the likelihood of another leg of euphoria to new all-time highs. Looking at the daily, it is clear how important the 2600 floor is, as it also aligns with the 360dMA; as long as the pair is above that and forming higher-lows above the 200dMA, I think it is likely we see the pair push higher from here. If we break down below 2600, I Would expect a full retrace of the bull cycle to follow, with price likely to return to cyclical support down at 450 satoshis, where it would be a fantastic long-term buy.


Utrust:

UTK/USD

Weekly:

UTKUSDWeekly

Daily:

UTKUSDDaily

UTK/BTC

Weekly:

UTKBTCWeekly

Daily:

UTKBTCDaily

Price: $0.50 (1060 satoshis)

Market Cap: $224.5mn

Thoughts: Beginning with UTK/USD, last week saw the second highest weekly volume traded in history for the pair, with price rallying hard after breaking back above resistance turned support at $0.25 and pushing towards (and beyond) the 38.2% retracement of the downswing at $0.52, ultimately closing the week there despite wicking as high as the 61.8% retracement and all-time high weekly close at $0.75, which continues to provide significant resistance. From here, the only area of interest really is that $0.75-$0.80 range – if we manage to close above that on the weekly for the first time in history, I would expect to see price accelerate towards the 2021 high and beyond to new all-time highs above $1.50, with the 1.618 extension of the downswing at $1.73, where I would look to take some profits on my UTK position. Looking at the daily, the volume and momentum of the breakout from the base was such that I would be very very surprised if this push to $0.75 was a complacency shoulder; instead, I expect we now hold above reclaimed support at $0.34, form higher-lows and push on from there for trend continuation. If, however, I am mistaken and price retraces the entire move higher and close back below $0.34, that would be quite bearish indeed, with a subsequent move back inside the $0.25 level confirming complacency for me and there I would again exit my position in expectation of the $0.14 low giving way.

Turning to UTK/BTC, this pair, as I have mentioned before, does not even appear to have really had a bullish cycle in 2021, instead having been range-bound between for the most part between 650 and 1900 satoshis. Last week, the pair bounced off of support at 650 and closed back above minor resistance at 979, though it failed to close above more significant resistance at 1155 satoshis. If we look at the daily, the pair did close above the level on high volume and I would now expect any dips back towards the 980 satoshi area (or slightly below into the 360dMA and 200dMA confluence) to be bought up hard, with the next leg higher likely to take the pair to 2000 satoshis; beyond that, I am still looking at the October 2020 high at 3000 satoshis as major resistance to be retested this year.


Audius:

AUDIO/USD

Daily:

AUDIOUSDDaily

AUDIO/BTC

Daily:

AUDIOBTCDaily

Price: $1.69 (3594 satoshis)

Market Cap: $678.289mn

Thoughts: Beginning with AUDIO/USD, we can see on the daily that the pair has played out a full cycle since inception, rallying from all-time lows at $0.07 into all-time highs above $5.19 in mid-March, then retracing all the way into prior resistance turned support at $0.57 in mid-June, where it formed a low and began to consolidate. Since, the pair has reclaimed support at $0.90 and pushed back towards the breakdown level at $1.38, where it failed to reclaim support on several attempts until last week, breaking firmly above the level and the 200dMA and pushing higher. The next major resistance is at $2.16, which I would expect to be tested before any meaningful dip is given for new entries, but I do think that the move back above the 200dMA and breakdown level after successive failures looks a bit like disbelief for a new cycle; if the $2.16 level is broken above, I’d fully expect $3.30 to be taken out and for price to run back towards the all-time high.

Turning to AUDIO/BTC, the pair didn’t quite retrace its bull market gains back to the historical accumulation range at 1200 satoshis, instead forming a low just below the 200dMA at 2000 satoshis and having since been range-bound between 2910 and 3800 for the most part. I would be looking for 3800 satoshis to now give way much like $1.38 on the dollar pair, which would open up the likelihood of pushing on towards major resistance at 5300 satoshis, with no resistance beyond that level all the way back into the all-time high at 9144. This one does look promising for the coming weeks…


ARPA Chain:

ARPA/USD

Weekly:

ARPAUSDWeekly

Daily:

ARPAUSDDaily

ARPA/BTC

Weekly:

ARPABTCWeekly

Daily:

ARPABTCDaily

Price: $0.062 (1314 satoshis)

Market Cap: $70.288mn

Thoughts: If we first take a look at ARPA/USD, from the weekly we can see that the pair had been forming a macro higher-low at support ~$0.022 between May and July, having retraced 85% from the all-time high at $0.148. Last week, having broken back above prior resistance at $0.039, the pair found immediate support at that level and bounced back into the most important resistance cluster in the pair’s history – the prior all-time highs between $0.059 and $0.064. ARPA closed the week back inside this range and marginally above resistance and I would now like to see a weekly close above the breakdown level at $0.0685 to confirm trend continuation; flip that level and there is effectively no major resistance all the way back into $0.133 and any dip following that breakout back into ~$0.064 would be a gift. Turning to the daily, the pair is also contesting with the 200dMA, providing confluence for the idea that flipping this zone is the most important signal for another leg higher for ARPA.

Finally, looking at ARPA/BTC, I very much like this chart as it shows that price, following its bull run from the all-time low at 52 satoshis at the beginning of this year into resistance at 242 retraced back to historical range support at 87 satoshis, where it began to consolidate. Last week, the pair bounced off this range support into resistance at 145 and I would now be looking for 145 to be reclaimed as support to indicate that ARPA is ready for another cycle higher, with a first target of the 2021 resistance at 242, followed by major historical resistance (if it can break above that) at 412 satoshis.

And that concludes this week’s Market Outlook. Keep an eye out for the Altcoin Special that will be available later this week.

I hope you’ve found value in the read and thank you for supporting my work!

As ever, feel free to leave any comments or questions below, or email me directly at nik@altcointradershandbook.com.


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