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Market Outlook #132

Market Outlook #132 (10th July 2021)

Hello, and welcome to the 132nd instalment of my Market Outlook.

In this week’s post, I will be covering Bitcoin, Ethereum, Cardano, XRP, Tron, Cosmos, Zilliqa, Reserve Rights, and Polkadex.

I will be publishing an Altcoin Special on Monday, so do feel free to drop me an email or leave a comment with requests.








Price: $33,684

Market Cap: $631.664bn

Thoughts: Let’s begin by looking at the monthly chart for BTC/USD. Here, we can see that June took out the May low at $30,000 and then closed back inside the range and above trendline support from March 2020. Volume last month was lower than in May, as would be expected of what was effectively a month of tight consolidation, and monthly RSI is back at levels unseen since the beginning of the bull run. Looking ahead, the June high at $40,900 is now a key level, and if we see price finding acceptance above that level in July I would expect to see the April Low at $47k get tagged subsequently.

Turning to the weekly, here we can see that last week saw price trade in a tight range following a swing-failure of the $30,000 low into $28,700, with this week having traded in a similarly tight range also, on declining volume. In fact, this week’s volume is looking like it will be the lowest since April. The June open at $37,300 is now acting as resistance, with three straight weeks of price failing to climb back above it. Given that we now find ourselves in this range within a range, whereby $37,300 is resistance and $30,000 remains support, I would be looking to buy a move back into range support to trade back into the June open, should we get such a move. That is just a potential intraweek play should we retest those lows. Looking ahead, however, with that swing-failure in place, we have taken the liquidity at the bottom of the range, and thus I am expecting the June high to be the next major liquidity sweep at $40,900, where a cluster of highs are placed. If we see the $37,300 level flipped as support, I would be looking for intraweek longs into that high. Further, any weekly close above $40,900 would be the indicator that range-bound price-action is over and so I would expect expansion into $47k, as mentioned. We are still very much in a period of uncertainty as to whether this two-month range between $30-40k is accumulation or re-distribution prior to another leg lower, and the tell-tale sign will be the weekly close above or below that range. As mentioned prior, the swing-failure of the bottom of the range indicates to me that price wants to move higher, even if it is a pit-stop before another push lower. There is plenty of liquidity above $41k and I would be surprised if it does not get taken out in July before longer-term direction is found. For bears, June open continuing to act as resistance is what you want to see, and if no support is found on a move back into $30k, the swing-failure pattern will likely be invalidated and price will lose that $28,700 support, with no support all the way back into the previous all-time high; lose that range supports and you should only be looking for shorts back into $20k.

Now, looking at the daily, volume has been dropping off steadily since the $28,700 bottom was put in and price has been chopping around below $37,300. The 360-day moving average is continuing to act as support, however, so I would like to see price trade below this week’s low into that $30-31k region for some long entries next week. If we see price move towards there early next week, I’ll look for reasons to get long for a bounce all the way back to $37k, as invalidation would be tight at $28,700. I said before that we are currently in a range within a range, and whilst we are below the June open there is no reason to expect price to continue higher to the top of the larger range at $40,900, hence if I do find a long I will exit at $37k, wait for the reaction and potentially re-enter longs if that June open gets flipped.











Price: $2,107 (0.06265 BTC)

Market Cap: $245.418bn

Thoughts: Beginning with ETH/USD, we can see from the weekly that price is continuing to find support above $1700, with last week closing back above prior resistance turned support at $2050. This week has seen the area returned to and bulls will want to see price hold above here going into next week. If $2050 can hold, the next target higher is $2942, where I would expect significant resistance to be found. Fall back below $2050 and I think we see the double bottom above $1700 get swept, which could indicate much lower prices should we see a weekly close below there, as I have mentioned in recent Outlooks. Looking at the daily, the pair is just about holding above the 200dMA but is currently struggling to climb back above prior support turned resistance at $2283. Get that level flipped as support once again and there is a nice 1.4R long opportunity back into $2900 with a stop below the 200dMA. Lose the 200dMA and the risk/reward is not particularly favourable for shorts back into $1700, at least not on the daily timeframe – instead, you’d be better off buying the liquidations below $1700 for the bounce.

Turning to ETH/BTC, EIP-1559 was expected to happen this coming week but has now been postponed until August, so we may see further chop for the next few weeks. That said, from the weekly we can see that the pair is putting in lower-highs and just above holding above the May low. As mentioned last week, there is not a great deal to discuss here until either the May low gets taken out, and thus we would expect lower prices as far as the 200wMA at 0.042, or price breaks above local trendline resistance and makes a higher-high. Until then, ETH/BTC is in chopsolidation…












Price: $1.33 (3968 satoshis)

Market Cap: $42.587bn

Thoughts: Beginning with ADA/USD, we can see from the weekly that the pair is still holding above the all-time high weekly close at $0.98, now turned support, and until that level falls I see no reason to turn mega-bearish on Cardano. If we do see a weekly close below that level, I will be looking for every short I can all the way back into $0.60 and likely much lower. Weekly volume is now at the lowest levels seen effectively ever for ADA on Binance and price is struggling to climb back above prior range resistance at $1.55. If we drop into the daily, we can see that price continues to hold above the 200dMA but there is basically no interest in this area at all; whilst price continues to chop between $0.98 and $1.55, I don’t see a trade; if we get a daily close above $1.55, I’d look to buy it back towards $1.94, and if we lose $0.98 I’d be looking for shorts into the 360dMA, but beyond that this is a no-trade zone for me.

Turning to ADA/BTC, the pair is looking like it has formed a higher-low at 3442 satoshis, but prior resistance at 4220 is now capping price for several weeks. Break back above that level and I’d expect continuation higher back towards the 2021 high at 5062 satoshis, but for now this looks a bit weak. If 4220 continues to cap the pair, no doubt we see the recent low taken out with price having a cluster of support below back into 3200 satoshis; lose that level and it is lights out, and I would expect a retrace all the way back to 1950 satoshis to follow.











Price: $0.62 (1847 satoshis)

Market Cap: $28.704bn

Thoughts: Looking firstly at XRP/USD, we can see from the weekly that the pair is still consolidating after sweeping a weekly low at $0.65 into support at $0.52, with price still just about holding onto its parabolic curve (although it is likely to be broken very soon). Volume has generally been declining for two months now, but XRP is managing to hold above a cluster of important supports. Whilst the pair is above this prior resistance region around $0.57, I see no reason to be looking for shorts here. If we start to see weekly closes below the 200wMA, I’d expect to see a full retrace of the rally, or at least the bulk of it to be retraced, back towards $0.24. Looking at the daily, the pair is sandwiched between the 360dMA as support and the 200dMA as resistance, and I am personally waiting for a breakout and close above the latter to look for longs back into $0.91 and potentially beyond. Close back above $0.91 and it is very likely we see trend continuation for XRP, but there is plenty of resistance to get through first. On the short side, I’d be looking to sell a rally following a breakdown below $0.507, looking for price to return towards that $0.24 area.

Turning to XRP/BTC, as mentioned in recent Outlooks, this pair is still holding above that important pivot around 1800 satoshis, with prior trendline resistance acting as support. If anything, this is a spot with a tight invalidation for a long, as any move below 1500 satoshis would open up a full retrace back to yearly lows. Dropping into the daily, the 360dMA has just been lost but the pair is still above the 200dMA. I’d like to buy as close to that 200dMA as possible if I was looking to play this long, as invalidation would be very tight giving maximum risk/reward. Daily close below 1485 and it is game over for XRP.












Price: $0.0616 (183 satoshis)

Market Cap: $4.417bn

Thoughts: Beginning with TRX/USD, we can see from the weekly that the pair is holding above long-term trendline support at present, with price also having flipped prior resistance between $0.045 and $0.054 as support. Whilst this confluence of levels holds as support, I would expect to see Tron push higher from here back towards $0.089 as reclaimed resistance. Flip that level on the weekly and we can start thinking about trend continuation and potentially another leg higher later this year. However, if $0.070 continues to act a resistance here and price loses that $0.045 area as support, I’d be looking for shorts all the way back into $0.027, where the next support sits.

Turning to TRX/BTC, thee pair has been in a very tight consolidation range between 169 and 260 satoshis since April, and there is some value to be had here for buyers, as price is holding above current range support nicely and any move back inside it would indicate a return to the Q1 range below 134 satoshis, so invalidation is tight. Also, given TRX/USD is at support, this provides some confluence here. If you do look at buying Tron here, keep that stop tight. Alternatively, spot buyers should wait for the resistance cluster at 306 satoshis to be broken above and buy the move higher, as there will be very little resistance all the way into 466 satoshis in that scenario.












Price: $13.38 (39,620 satoshis)

Market Cap: $2.907bn

Thoughts: Beginning with ATOM/USD, the pair is looking quite strong on the weekly after sweeping the May low into prior resistance turned support at $7.77 and bouncing back above trendline support from March 2020. If ATOM can start closing back above prior support turned resistance at $14.66 here, I’d expect the May high at $17.68 to be taken out, with $23.20 my primary target above that. Looking at the daily, the structure here is definitely cleaner that for many other large-caps, with higher-lows now beginning to form and price pushing back towards the 200dMA. Flip that $16 area and I’d look for intraweek longs into $23. shaving off some position size on a tag of the 50% retracement at $20.39. I’d be looking at the lower timeframes for more precise stop placement in that scenario, but if we do flip $16.26 I would not want to see $14.66 closed back below, so that may well be the soft stop. For bears, rejection around the 200dMA and a return to range support below $9 would open the possibility for another leg of distribution, with targets below $7.77 at $6.41, $5.55 and $4.48.

Turning to ATOM/BTC, the picture has been quite similar for several weeks now, with price sandwiched between reclaimed support at 25.6k satoshis and below resistance at 47.3k. That said, this week has seen a good bounce off the floor and I’d be looking for that latter level to be retested soon. Close the weekly above that and the primary resistance at 55k comes into play, which has been the cap on ATOM since September 2020. Break cleanly above there and no doubt we will be seeing another period of ATOM outperformance. Reject up there and we may well get a great short setup back to the bottom of the range.










Price: $0.073 (217 satoshis)

Market Cap: $834.909mn

Thoughts: If we begin by looking at ZIL/USD, we can see that price swept the May low into support at $0.059 before consolidating back above $0.068, where it currently sits. If we see that most recent low lost, I’d expect to see the next leg lower begin, with the next support at $0.041, followed by $0.029. However, whilst the pair holds above it, I am expecting further chop and consolidation, and potentially re-accumulation. Looking at the daily, that $0.068 level is providing key support at the moment, so if that gives way the $0.059 low is very unlikely to hold on a second test. Further, price is being held below the 2020 high and prior support at $0.095, now turned resistance. If ZIL can catch a bounce here as we trade around $0.068, I’d expect to see a retest of $0.095, with any move back above that level opening up the likelihood of a more protracted bounce back toward the 200dMA. Unfortunately, the picture is not particularly promising for holders at present and I would lean more towards the likelihood of redistribution and another leg lower to follow in the coming weeks.

Turning to ZIL/BTC, the pair is holding around 225 satoshis, just about, but is looking a little weak in this area; if we see price begin to put in lower-lows on the daily, there is no real support all the way back into 100 satoshis. Should the pair return to that prior range resistance, that would be an ideal area for those on the sidelines to begin accumulating a longer-term position. I retain around 35% of my ZIL position from February 2020 at this point and I would look to dollar cost average that down if we return back inside that accumulation range from late 2019 to early 2020.

Reserve Rights:











Price: $0.024 (71 satoshis)

Market Cap: $311.831mn

Thoughts: Beginning with RSR/USD, we can see that the long term trendline support has been lost and price is now finding support above $0.022, with resistance having been reclaimed at $0.032. If the pair begins to break higher from here and can close back above that level, I’d expect to see more relief back towards the 200dMA and the breakdown area ~$0.06. We can see this more clearly on the daily chart. The picture is quite similar to ZIL/USD, in fact, and if RSR fails to climb back above $0.032, I don’t expect this level where price is currently sitting to hold for too long. Lose the $0.018 low and I don’t even think $0.014 will hold, with no real support all the way back into the October 2020 lows at $0.0074, where those on the sidelines may begin to consider building a new long-term position. For those looking for longs, the best plan is likely to by the reclaim of $0.032 with a stop below $0.022, sell the position on a retest of the $0.06 area and then rebuy if that level is closed back above, looking to play it all the way back into new all-time highs from there.

Turning to RSR/BTC, what is interesting here is that the pair is sat right at historical resistance turned support, thus invalidation for spot buyers here is extremely tight, with a weekly close below 61 satoshis indicating a return to the original range down at 30 satoshis. Looking at the daily, the pair is well below the 200dMA and 360dMA and is struggling to break bearish market structure at present, thus is just consolidating above that important level. If we see a daily close above 83, that would open up the possibility of a bottom forming here and that would be a lower risk entry, again with a stop below 61.










Price: $0.30 (885 satoshis)

Market Cap: $221.131mn

Thoughts: FET is looking relatively strong here, having held above long-term trendline support and now having printed a double bottom against the Dollar at prior range resistance ~$0.16. The pair has since closed the weekly back above the 2020 high at $0.194 and is pushing on to retest the prior all-time high from 2019 at $0.35 as resistance. Close back above that and I think trend continuation is on the way, with a trendline breakout providing the trigger for more relief back towards $0.54. Looking at the daily, I think the $0.35 level is critical, as it also aligns with the 200dMA, so get above that and we’re on for more strength. Reject there and we could feasibly look to short FET/USD back towards range support at $0.20.

Turning to FET/BTC, support continues to be found at 550 satoshis as expected and price looks poised to return to the top of the range, where resistance has been perpetually found ~1250 satoshis. A breakout above 1250 would indicate to me that FET/BTC wants a full range breakout above 1550 and that would absolutely drag FET/USD to new all-time highs, regardless of what BTC is doing. If we do see 1550 give way over the coming weeks, I’d be looking to buy it with a target of 2700 satoshis. Reject at 1250 and again we may be able to look for a (synthetic) short back towards 550.








Price: $10.52 (31,250 satoshis)

Market Cap: $20.655mn

Thoughts: Polkadex was a request by a subscribers and thus I do not know anything about its fundamentals. That said, it did worry me to see that only 10% of its supply is in circulation, as that opens up the possibility of significant inflation depending on the token release schedule.

Nonetheless, if we look at PDEX/USD, we can see that prior range support at $12.70 has been lost and price is now putting in new all-time lows, with $9.68 having printed a couple of days ago. I would not look to be a buyer here based on this, unless we see the range support reclaimed and then a higher high form above $15. If that structure forms, the bottom might be in and we could look to buy dips with a stop below the all-time low. For now, however, this is in bearish price discovery and price could continue putting in lower-highs and new all-time lows.

Turning to PDEX/BTC, again, this simply looks like its ready to bleed back to the origin of the first pump and the current all-time low at 23.2k satoshis, so I’d be looking for that level to be taken out and reclaimed or for a longer-term range to form above that all-time low before I consider buying a position in PDEX. If either of those scenarios occurs, it would make for a nice entry. Beyond that, if price does form a bottom here in no man’s land, wait for a breakout above prior resistance at 43.9k satoshis and buy a dip subsequently.

And that concludes this week’s Market Outlook.

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