You are currently viewing Market Outlook #128

Market Outlook #128

Market Outlook #128 (7th June 2021)

Hello, and welcome to the 128th instalment of my Market Outlook.

In this week’s post, I will be covering Bitcoin, Ethereum, XRP, Monero, Cosmos, Tezos, Synthetix, Fantom, Quant and Fetch.ai.

Bitcoin:

Weekly:

BTCUSDWeekly

Daily:

BTCUSDDaily

Price: $36,246

Market Cap: $676.026bn

Thoughts: Beginning with the weekly chart, we can see that price consolidated for another week on declining volume, printing an inside week (with the weekly range entirely within the previous range). As such, this coming week may well bring inside week failure, where one side of the range is broken but price closes the week back inside the range, thus trapping breakout traders. If we do see this occur, we could reasonably expect the other side of the range to be taken out also: so, if price trades below $34,183 this week and closes back above it, we would have a long bias next week targeting a break of $39,481 into the 200dMA; if price wicks through $39,481 this week and closes below, we’d be looking for shorts next week into $34,183. That said, the formation of an inside week doesn’t necessitate that inside week failure will also occur, but it is something to keep an eye on as we approach Sunday. However, given two weeks of contraction, whilst it is possible that we see more consolidation this week, it is likely that we see expansion either side of the current range sooner rather than later. Given this, I am looking for a weekly close above ~$40k to trigger continuation towards $47k and potentially a little higher before any meaningful resistance is found. If, however, we close the weekly below $34k, which price has now failed to do three weeks straight, I would expect downside continuation into the swing-low at $28,645.

Turning to the daily, here can see this tightening range more clearly, with higher lows continuing to form alongside lower-highs, with price most recently sandwiched between $34,674 and $39,481, with much of the chop occurring around the monthly open at $37,279. If we can start to hold above that monthly open, I think we see $39,481 taken out and the reaction there will be telling as to whether we see continuation higher to test the $42k cluster and potentially pop beyond that or, as stated earlier, print inside week failure. If early this week we test that monthly open as resistance and it fails to give way, I’d expect to see last week’s low taken out and that’s where I’ll be stacking some bids in anticipation of a bounce into weekly close to hold that $34k area. As I have said recently, whilst $34k is holding, I do expect us to squeeze higher, so losing that on the higher timeframe will be the first sign that the range is further distribution and that the 360dMA is probably up next.


Ethereum:

ETH/USD

Weekly:

Daily:

ETHUSDDaily

ETH/BTC

Weekly:

ETHBTCWeekly

Daily:

ETHBTCDaily

Price: $2,786 (0.0766 BTC)

Market Cap: $323.425bn

Thoughts: If we start by looking at ETH/USD, again we have an inside week and thus the same potential scenario applies as for BTC/USD. However, the structure for ETH is quite different, with price having formed a higher-low on the weekly timeframe at $1728 and now looking poised for a move to retest $3325 as resistance. If we do see inside week failure print on Sunday night, I’d be looking for shorts into $2588 if we wick through $2890 and close below it or longs for vice-versa. As I’m sure you have also been considering, it is indeed possible that any bounce into $3325 will form a macro lower-high or complacency shoulder and following that we would have a clearer picture on the mid-term expectations for ETH/USD, but for now it remains in an uptrend. Looking at the daily, price has broken above trendline resistance and turned prior resistance at $2588 into support. That being said, the pair remains capped by the $2935 high, which has yet to be broken; close the daily above that and I think we see that pop towards $3300. If we start to see a higher-low form from that point above $2588, that would set the tone for a potential run at new highs, but I still think it will take several weeks before that scenario becomes apparent.

Turning to ETH/BTC, strength continues to be shown here, with last week closing above the previous week’s high and the pair now looking ready to squeeze towards the 2021 high at 0.0826. As mentioned last week, the EIP-1559 event is the primary fundamental anchor for ETH at the moment and that is still five weeks away, so it is conceivable that price continues to squeeze higher for the rest of June, with the 61.8% retracement of the bear market at 0.1 being the key resistance level overhead, should the yearly high give way. If, however, we sweep 0.0826 and print a swing-failure on the weekly, I would expect the current trendline support to be broken and local top to be forming. Looking at the daily, the pair has reclaimed 0.0074, leaving no resistance levels left back into the yearly high; whilst we continue to print higher-lows and hold above trendline resistance, I am confident we see 0.0826 taken out fairly swiftly.


XRP:

XRP/USD

Weekly:

XRPUSDWeekly

Daily:

XRPUSDDaily

XRP/BTC

Weekly:

XRPBTCWeekly

Daily:

XRPBTCDaily

Price: $0.955 (2,631 satoshis)

Market Cap: $44.047bn

Thoughts: Beginning with XRP/USD, we can see from the weekly that – like the rest of the market – price is consolidating on low volume at present, and though one could argue that inside week failure has printed here, with last week’s high sweep the previous week and closing back inside, in my opinion that first inside week is invalid due to the capitulation candle that preceded it. When you get a very large weekly range like we did during that week, it should come as no surprise that the subsequent week is price consolidating within it. So, I am now looking for a weekly close above $0.96 to open up a squeeze back towards the $1.67 lower-high, where if we print another lower-high I would be very much convinced the mid-term top is in for the pair. If bulls fail to show up here and we see a weekly close below $0.78, I’d be looking for a return to $0.58 from there and potentially back into the 2017 range high and 200wMA at $0.41.

Looking at XRP/BTC, this is chop city at present, which is why I mentioned last week that I am not really interested in much here for XRP. The weekly has formed a range between 3072 satoshis, above which price wicked a couple of times (once into that 4k-satoshi area that is major resistance), and support around the breakout area above 1900 satoshis. Whilst the pair is trapped in this range, there is not a great deal I am expecting except further chop, although higher-lows are forming with 2250 satoshis now beginning to hold as support. If we see a weekly close above 3072, I’d expect another test of 4k to follow; failing that, it would take a weekly close back below 1900 for me to consider shorting back towards 1500 and then potentially as far as the yearly low at 620 satoshis. Glancing quickly at the daily, the cluster of support at 1900 satoshis has more confluence with the 200dMA and 360dMA now sat right in that area, so it is vital for bulls to hold above that if the cycle is to continue for XRP.


Monero:

XMR/USD

Weekly:

XMRUSDWeekly

Daily:

XMRUSDDaily

XMR/BTC

Weekly:

XMRBTCWeekly

Daily:

XMRBTCDaily

Price: $276.74 (0.00762 BTC)

Market Cap: $4.961bn

Thoughts: Beginning with XMR/USD, the weekly doesn’t look too dissimilar to the bubble pop back in 2018, albeit with one primary discrepancy: we are far less over-extended relative to the 200wMA than we were back then. Moreover, the idea that the macro top for Monero after a multi-year bear market would be ~10% above the prior all-time high seems a little far-fetched, but we have to play the chart in front of us. Looking at the weekly, if the top is in, we could expect to see price return to that $379 area that marked the complacency shoulder in 2018 before the bear market began, with it aligning with the 61.8% retracement of the dump from $518 into $170; as such, if we do see price squeeze into that area over the next couple of weeks, that would make sense as an area to hedge spot holdings and either wait for a break higher or wait to see a reaction on a retest of the $186 support area. As I have said, I do not think the macro cycle is over yet, but it makes sense to play it safe. Looking at the daily, the pair is putting in higher-highs and higher-lows and looks ready for that pop above $316 into the 50% at $344 and then the 61.8%.

Turning to XMR/BTC, the pair is holding above reclaimed support at 0.006 and has now reclaimed 0.00686, with the pair coiling below historical trendline resistance. This is the primary resistance overhead and if we see a weekly close above it and above the 360wMA at 0.01, that would be my signal for a period of Monero outperformance and would likely drag XMR/USD back towards all-time highs. Looking at the daily, I want to see 0.00686 now hold as support, having been reclaimed, with any break below it likely to bring another retest of the 0.006 area. Break below that and it looks awful for the pair, with a mid-term top likely in and the downtrend poised to continue. If, however, we do hold here, I think the 0.0085 area will get taken out, with a daily close above that level being the first since Q4 2020, which would indicate that the trendline is ready to be broken.


Cosmos:

ATOM/USD

Weekly:

ATOMUSDWeekly

Daily:

ATOMUSDDaily

ATOM/BTC

Weekly:

ATOMBTCWeekly

Daily:

ATOMBTCDaily

Price: $15.63 (43,080 satoshis)

Market Cap: $3.296bn

Thoughts: Beginning with ATOM/USD, the pair – despite the sell-off – held above trendline support from March 2020, much like BTC/USD, with the cluster of prior resistance around $9 becoming support. Price has since consolidated and climbed higher, with last week closing back above range support at $14.66. If we see a weekly close above $16,26 follow, I’d expect prior range resistance to be retested around $23.20, which would be the area I expect a complacency shoulder to form if we are to continue lower. Any move beyond that range resistance and close above it would indicate that the trend is still pointing higher and we would be ready to retest the all-time high at $32.88, but I would expect that to be a couple of months off yet, in any case. Turning to the daily, the pair has reclaimed the 200dMA and is finding resistance around $17, where a cluster of prior support lies; flip that and I think we see that pop into $23+. Looking lower, if the pair loses $14.66 here, I would expect that higher low around $11.25 to be retested; break below that and the $9 area becomes key again.

Turning to ATOM/BTC, from the weekly, we can see that the pair found support at a historical level ~25,600 satoshis, which was the floor that preceded the run into 76k satoshis in August 2020. Price also swept the March low at 30,700 satoshis but closed above, indicating strength in this area. We have since seen ATOM break back above 39k, which had been a troublesome area for the pair throughout March and April. This is all very promising for ATOM/BTC, and if we can break back above 47k satoshis, I’d expect that resistance at 55.3k to be retested; close above that and the 2020 high is in sight. Looking at the daily, the pair has broken back above the 360dMA and is looking ready to retest 47.3k as resistance, with any daily close above that level opening up that 55k retest I am interested in – that latter level has capped ATOM on 6 separate attempts since September 2020, so overcoming that will be a major indicator for future expectations.


Tezos:

XTZ/USD

Weekly:

XTZUSDWeekly

Daily:

XTZUSDDaily

XTZ/BTC

Weekly:

XTZBTCWeekly

Daily:

XTZBTCDaily

Price: $4 (11,030 satoshis)

Market Cap: $2.142bn

Thoughts: Beginning with XTZ/USD, we can see from the weekly that the pair has held up above long-term trendline support from November 2019, with the pair having broken below resistance turned support between $4-$4.50 and thus turned weekly market structure bearish, as price capitulated into the trendline. Since, the pair has reclaimed $3 and is now squeezing into the breakdown retest area and prior resistance cluster at $4. Close the weekly above here and I think $4.53 gets tested, a weekly close above which would be very promising. Above, the next major resistance would be the open of the capitulation candle and prior resistance at $5.68, which is where I would expect that complacency shoulder to form if we are going to put in a lower-high. If that level is reclaimed, $7.68 is the final resistance before all-time highs. If we drop into the daily, price has been consolidating between the 200dMA and 360dMA for a couple of weeks and is now popping above the former, with the 38.2% retracement of the sell-off aligning with that key weekly level around $4.50. I do think some resistance will be found in that area and it would show major weakness if we don’t see any signs of a breakout beyond it, with a retest of the trendline likely in that case. However, close above and that 50% to 61.8% area becomes the target and I’d look for short-term longs level to level into that spot.

Turning to XTZ/BTC, we can see that price is looking like a longer-term bottom is forming here, after the pair has a nightmare few months following September 2020 that led to new all-time lows forming at the beginning of the year at 5640 satoshis. Since, the pair has been putting in higher-lows and higher-highs, albeit with major resistance being found between 11-12k satoshis. If we can get a weekly close above the latter level, I’d expect to see 14.6k retested; break above that and the next resistance is up near 20k satoshis. As long as we hold above 7500, this bottoming formation looks good. Looking at the daily, the pair has effectively been range-bound below 12k satoshis for the best part of five months now, unlike many other large-caps that have been running hard during that time. As such, if we can get a move beyond 14.6k, I think Tezos will start to outperform and we’ll get a more sustained rally, where I’d be looking to buy dips all the way back towards the original breakdown area at 24k satoshis.


Synthetix:

SNX/USD

Weekly:

SNXUSDWeekly

Daily:

SNX/BTC

Weekly:

SNXBTCWeekly

Daily:

Price: $12.12 (33,337 satoshis)

Market Cap: $1.394bn

Thoughts: Unlike many large-caps, Synthetix hasn’t really lost its structure at all during the May sell-off, with SNX/USD looking very similar at present to corrections that have occurred twice before in its macro bull trend. Price has retraced 70% from the all-time high at $30.16, similar to the previous correction from the $8 all-time high in September 2020, with that range resistance now looking like a new area of support. If it can hold above that previous range that led to the expansion into $30, I think we see continuation higher later this year. Trade back inside $8 and it looks worse, as that could open up a much deeper retrace to retest the range support back at $2.53. Looking at the daily, the pair also looks quite similar to the bottoming formation in November, where price broke below the 200dMA but held above the 360dMA and then reclaimed a key support level ($3.62 back then) before continuing higher. If we see $13.81 reclaimed as support over the next couple of weeks, I’d consider the bottom to be in for the pair with a retest of $24.70 at the very least likely.

Turning to SNX/BTC, as we can see from the weekly, the pair has been in a contracting range since August 2020, when the all-time high at 67.7k satoshis led to a sell-off into resistance turned support at 21k, with each following swing-high being a little lower and the subsequent swing-low a little higher at 26.8k satoshis. If this pattern of consolidation is to continue, it may be months before we see resolution to either side. I don’t have a particularly clear read on the pair here but for those looking for trades here, it is quite clear that playing the extremes is the only plan that makes sense if you don’t want to get chopped up. Looking briefly at the daily, the 360dMA has consistently been a good area to buy around with the lows tending to trend higher with it over the past year. If we start to close below 27k satoshis, I’d be expecting much more downside towards 17k satoshis.


Fantom:

FTM/USD

Weekly:

FTMUSDWeekly

Daily:

FTMUSDWeekly

FTM/BTC

Weekly:

FTMBTCWeekly

Daily:

FTMBTCDaily

Price: $0.35 (955 satoshis)

Market Cap: $882.082mn

Thoughts: Beginning with FTM/USD, we can see form the weekly that the pair put in a high at $0.93 in March which was rejected hard, with price then being range-bound in a tight consolidation around $0.45 for several weeks, before expansion beyond the level took the pair to sweep the all-time high into $0.98. We then saw rejection and price subsequently sweep the swing-low that preceded the new high at $0.24. In short, everyone got taken out from all angles. The key level for me here remains $0.45, and if FTM can close back above it, I think it takes another shot at $1. Reject below it, however, and it starts to look very poor, with a retest of the $0.24 likely, but any close below that opening up much more pain and likely the macro top, with no support at all all the way back into $0.046. If we look at the daily, the pair has been supported by the 200dMA and 360dMA the entire run, and it bottomed out in between the two before the next leg higher back in Q4 2020; if we see $0.18 hold as a low on the daily timeframe, we may just see repeat of that consolidation before expansion higher, but if that lower level is lost, good night Fantom.

Turning to FTM/BTC, this is a very ugly chart but from the weekly we can see that price has flipped prior resistance as support above 500 satoshis and has found resistance twice around 1700-1900 satoshis, with the all-time high weekly close at 1576. Despite the brutal sell-off a couple of weeks ago, the pair again held above prior resistance and printed a higher-low, and so we are clearly just in a large range now between that support and resistance around 1700 satoshis. If the pair can start pushing higher from here and closes above 1161, an area of prior support turned resistance, I’d expect that 1600-satoshi area to be tested, with any close above that opening up the possibility of an all-time high retest. Reject around 1160 and I think we return to the bottom of the range to consolidate. If 500 satoshis is lost, however, it opens up the likelihood of a near full retrace back to the original range below 100 satoshis.


Quant:

QNT/USD

Weekly:

QNTUSDWeekly

Daily:

QNTUSDDaily

QNT/BTC

Weekly:

QNTBTCWeekly

Daily:

QNTBTCDaily

Price: $44.84 (0.001235 BTC)

Market Cap: $541.315mn

Thoughts: Beginning with QNT/USD, we can see that the pair has been in an uptrend the vast majority of its price-history, with the pair most recently having been range-bound between $28.40 and $49.19 for several weeks, before price wicked to a new all-time high into $63.60 and below range support in the same week, before closing back inside the range. In short, it is still range-bound and $49.19 is again acting as resistance. As such, any weekly close above this level would be the first in its history and thus open up the likelihood for price discovery, with the 1.618 extension beyond the current all-time high at $87.23, as can be seen on the daily. Further, whilst the pair is above range support, I don’t think there is any reason to expect the trend to change, with the 200dMA having supported QNT for over a year now, with it now sitting inside the range – lose that and range support and that is a key exit indicator, in my opinion.

Looking now at QNT/BTC, what is strange about this pair is that it has effectively been in a large range between 23k satoshis and 130k satoshis for its entire existence, finding support on several occasions at or slightly above that former level and then rallying into 130k satoshis, finding resistance and repeating the process for the past two years. Given this, and the fact that the pair is now pressing up against that resistance area, I would be looking for the first weekly close above it to signal price discovery, with the all-time high at 161k satoshis in sight in that case (and beyond). If, however, we begin to break down here on the lower timeframes, it is likely that we drop towards mid-range where there is some support at 58k satoshis.


Fetch.ai:

FET/USD

Weekly:

FETUSDWeekly

Daily:

FETUSDDaily

FET/BTC

Weekly:

FETBTCWeekly

Daily:

FETBTCDaily

Price: $0.36 (998 satoshis)

Market Cap: $270.61mn

Thoughts: If we start by looking at the weekly chart for FET/USD, we can see a similar pattern – albeit more severe – occurring to that of September 2020, where the parabolic run was broken and price sold off around 80% before re-accumulating and beginning another leg higher. Price has again broken its parabola and found resistance at $0.69, which led to the sell off back into the prior range highs at $0.20 now turned support. Price bounced hard from that area but again looks to be putting in a lower high, with clear trendline resistance seen on the daily. Close well above that trendline and $0.54 and we likely run to new highs, but reject in that area and break down and I can see a return to the 360dMA, where FET may re-accumulate before another run higher. Only if it loses that $0.16-$0.20 area that capped the prior range would I expect no third leg higher to follow.

Turning to FET/BTC, the pair has been capped by 1550 satoshis for two years, but price is holding above reclaimed support at 360 satoshis despite recent sell-offs, so we remain stuck in a range. If we look at the daily for clarity, we can see how choppy it has been since April, but the 200dMA and 360dMA provided a lot of support around 550 satoshis a couple of weeks ago and I would like to see that low now hold, with a higher low above 700 satoshis making structure look a lot more inviting for another run at 1600. If we see a daily close above 1250, I’d expect that to lead to a pop into 1400; close above that and we will retest that range high for sure. However, if we sell-off here at resistance and break below the 360dMA, I’d expect 360 satoshis to be retested as support.

And that concludes this week’s Market Outlook.

I hope you’ve found value in the read and thank you for supporting my work!

As ever, feel free to leave any comments or questions below, or email me directly at nik@altcointradershandbook.com.


[mc4wp_form id=”95″]

Leave a Reply