You are currently viewing Market Outlook #118

Market Outlook #118

Market Outlook #118 (29th March 2021)

Hello, and welcome to the 118th instalment of my Market Outlook.

In this week’s post, I will be covering Bitcoin, Ethereum, Algorand, Ankr, Siacoin, Flow, COTI, Syscoin, Flamingo and Constellation.

As ever, if you have any suggestions for the next post, feel free to leave them in the comments below.

Bitcoin:

Weekly:

BTCUSDWeekly

Daily:

BTCUSDDaily

Price: $58,101

Market Cap: $1.084trn

Thoughts: Following the previous week’s inside week pattern, we now have the inside week failure that was anticipated in BTC/USD.

Beginning with the weekly chart, we can see this inside week failure clearly, with price breaking below the prior weekly low at $53,220 (below which, as I mentioned, I had resting bids). Instead of closing the week below that low, however, we saw a surge higher into the weekly close, with price closing back inside the range of the prior week, hence inside week failure. This is often indicative of a move to the other side of the range to capture liquidity, and that would see Bitcoin trading above $60,600 – just shy of the all-time high at $61,788. Given that this inside week failure occurred on the back of the largest options expiry and going into the quarterly close, I am now expecting bullish continuation for BTC/USD, with $64k my first target for early in April. As you might have noticed, there appears to be a trend since the beginning of the year where price runs hard for the first half of the month, then consolidates and sells off for a week or two before rallying higher again at the turn of the month. If we are to see a similar pattern emerge for April, we could expect the pair to extend beyond $64k before marking out a local top (likely below the 4.618 extension at $80,800), followed by a 25-30% haircut going into May. For context, a 25% correction off a local high in mid-April at $78-80k would see price trade back into $61k to retest this current range as new support; this is something I will be paying close attention to. Now, $50k is my line in the sand for a major shift in trend, as we have put in a higher low there and any break and close below would lose current trendline support, as well as turn market structure bearish.

Turning to the daily, we can more clearly see the dump below $53,220, where price sold off into a trendline support retest, front-running it a little a making a macro higher-low at $50,300. From there, price bounced hard, closing back above $53,220 a couple of days later, above which it consolidated at the weekend and has since continued higher into the previous range resistance at $57,800. I would like to see the pair close above this area early this week as opposed to reject here, and I would be looking for a little more consolidation below $60,600 before continuation higher perhaps in the first week of April. Once that level gives way, I expect the all-time high to be cracked shortly afterwards, with $64k my primary target before a short breather. If we look at RSI, we are finally seeing the possibility that momentum is shifting, although I would like to see higher-highs printed when we break above the all-time high to confirm this – if we see another lower high (a fourth one) despite prices pushing higher, momentum would look very weak indeed.

In general, the bullish trend remains intact and at the current rate we could conceivably see $80k tagged before June.


Ethereum:

ETH/USD

Weekly:

ETHUSDWeekly

Daily:

ETHUSDDaily

ETH/BTC

Weekly:

ETHBTCWeekly

Daily:

ETHBTCDaily

Price: $1783.40 (0.03066 BTC)

Market Cap: $205.419bn

Thoughts: Ethereum continues to consolidate again BTC but last week we got the sweep of the lows that I had hoped to see.

Beginning with ETH/USD, we have similar price-action to that of BTC/USD, albeit with the pair failing to print inside week failure. We do, however, have a higher low in place now at $1546, and I would like to see this hold. Volume is still low relative to earlier in the year but improved upon the previous week’s volume; again, if we see continuation from here, I would like to see volume lifted – not necessarily increasing volume week-on-week but just higher than the low levels currently being traded. Looking ahead, that $2240 area remains the first target, but as mentioned last week I do not expect it to provide much resistance, with $2750 the likely area for another period of consolidation. Turning to the daily, we can see that price has now reclaimed $1660 and I would like to see this now hold as support, with $1947 – the lower-high from earlier in the month – the primary resistance level from here. Close above that and it is obvious that the consolidation has ended. Looking at the pennant pattern that has formed, we may well see a breakout over the next ten days or so.

As has been the case for several weeks, ETH/BTC remains in consolidation at support. Looking at the weekly, what is interesting about last week’s price action is that we finally swept the cluster of wicks at 0.03 and closed back above the level, indicating a potential liquidity hunt before a reversal. If so, we should see momentum return to the pair soon, with 0.0312 the first minor area of resistance to overcome; close this week above that level – which the pair has failed to do for the past three weeks – and I’d be more confident on this reversal. Volume continues to decline, so I’d also be looking for a trend change here to signal the reversal. Looking at the daily, price is holding the 360dMA as support but for market structure to turn bullish, we’d need to first see a close back above the 200dMA and 0.0327, followed by a successful retest and reclaim of 0.035; take that latter level and it is game on for above 0.05, in my opinion. However, if last week’s sweep fails to provide momentum, we could expect this week to see lower prices traded at, with 0.0287 the next level of support below. In that case, I would think we have several more weeks of consolidation to look forward to before any meaningful reversal, with 0.0263 an important area to hold above.


Algorand:

ALGO/USD

Weekly:

ALGOUSDWeekly

Daily:

ALGOUSDDaily

ALGO/BTC

Weekly:

ALGOBTCWeekly

Daily:

ALGOBTCDaily

Price: $1.25 (2138 satoshis)

Market Cap: $3.22bn

Thoughts: If we look firstly at ALGO/USD, we can see from the weekly that the pair continues to consolidate below channel resistance but above prior resistance turned support at $0.91. I mentioned a couple of weeks ago that I was looking to trade this higher on a breakout above $1.30; alas, we have still not had that breakout. However, if the pair can close the weekly above that level, I’d be looking to get long with a first target of $1.93, followed by $2.70 and finally the all-time high at $3.76. Whilst the pair holds above $0.91, there is no reason to be bearish. I have marked the possible trajectory out on the daily, including where I’d be looking for an entry (the green arrow); break above $1.30 and flip this current resistance area into support and I’m in.

Turning to ALGO/BTC, last week saw the pair hold above the reclaimed range support at 2000 satoshis, pushing higher from the weekly open. This suggests to me that the higher-low is confirmed and we will see the pair push on back towards the major cluster of resistance between 2750 and 3000 satoshis. As long as this higher-low holds firm, I see no reason to be bearish on ALGO. Turning to the daily, we have now reclaimed the 200dMA after several weeks of failing to do so, which is a good sign. I’d now like to see the pair break and close above the 360dMA at 2538 to open up the 3k-satoshi retest. Get above that area again and I think we see 4878 satoshis tested over the coming weeks.


Ankr:

ANKR/USD

Weekly:

ANKRUSDWeekly

Daily:

ANKRUSDDaily

ANKR/BTC

Weekly:

ANKRBTCWeekly

Daily:

ANKRBTCDaily

Price: $0.176 (302 satoshis)

Market Cap: $1.23bn

Thoughts: I last mentioned ANKR in late February and since then it has exceeded all expectations and I have now exited my entire position.

If we look at ANKR/USD, we can see from the weekly that the pair has rallied into its 1000% extension of the bullish trend from the August 2020 high, printing an all-time high last week at $0.22 but closing below that extension resistance at $0.187. Whilst it is possible this simply continues higher in the parabolic fashion it has, I think downside risks are too great following such a run; that said, if you are still in, last week’s candle does not yet look like a top, with no real rejection wick after such expansive movement – if anything, it looks like the candle from a couple of weeks ago, following which we saw consolidation and then expansion. Looking above, the next target would be the 1500% extension at $0.28, where I would expect to see significant selling occur. Looking at the daily, top signs would appear if we make a higher-low from here, followed by a lower-high below $0.22 and then break that first low, thus turning market structure bearish – in that instance, I’d expect at least a mid-term top to be in, like that of August 2020.

Turning to ANKR/BTC, we have seen the pair run almost 20x from its lows in January. In doing so, it has broken above the August high at 156 satoshis and rallied beyond 1.618 extension, all the way into the 2.618 extension last week, printing an all-time high at 387 satoshis but closing closer to the 200% extension at 293. If the pair does continue higher from here, the 300% extension lies ahead at 430 satoshis. If we look at the daily, this does look more bearish than the USD pair, with price rejecting the all-time high yesterday and closing ~30% lower. That said, if we look back to earlier this month, the pair did a similar thing into the August 2020 high (and prior all-time high) at 156, which led to an ascending triangle forming and continuation higher. Nonetheless, as I said, I don’t see any reason to remain involved up here given the extent of the run since January and it goes without saying that new entries here make zero sense.


Siacoin:

SC/USD

Weekly:

SCUSDWeekly

Daily:

SCUSDDaily

SC/BTC

Weekly:

SCBTCWeekly

Daily:

SCBTCDaily

Price: $0.0255 (44 satoshis)

Market Cap: $1.203bn

Thoughts: Beginning with SC/USD, last week saw an inside week print after an expansive week prior, with resistance at $0.018 holding as support and price closing the week around the 2.618 extension of the prior range at $0.0246. The pair is in a parabolic uptrend, as we can see by the increasing steepness of the rally, and I’d expect April to be very fruitful for Siacoin, with my next target the 500% extension at $0.039 and the 1000% extension above that at $0.07. Looking at the daily, this 500% extension lines up with the 1.618 extension of last week’s range, providing confluence. Looking at the structure here, as long as this now holds above $0.017, I think we see continuation of the parabolic trend.

Turning to SC/BTC, the weekly shows consolidation around the August 2020 highs and range resistance at 45 satoshis, which has capped price since mid-2019. If the weekly is able to close above this level, that would be a major continuation signal. I am looking for 60 satoshis to provide minor resistance moving forward, but if 45 gives way on the weekly I think we see 125 tagged within a few weeks. Unlike other alts that had their own mini-cycles and test-pumps in August 2020, Siacoin has remained effectively range-bound between 15 and 45 for 18 months or more; as such, I don’t see the 1.618 extension of that August high as a relevant price target.


Flow:

FLOW/USD

Daily:

FLOWUSDDaily

FLOW/BTC

Daily:

FLOWBTCDAily

Price: $32.94 (56,762 satoshis)

Market Cap: $1.002bn

Thoughts: Looking firstly at FLOW/USD, we can see that the pair sold off from the all-time high at $41 early this month, forming support at prior resistance around $30, before capitulating below it last week into $24, just shy of the prior range resistance. Since, the pair has rallied higher, trading all-time high daily volume shortly after capitulation as price attempted to reclaim $30 but failing to do so. We are now seeing a second, potentially successful, attempt being made, and I would like to see the daily close above $30.43 to confirm the reversal. Above, trendline resistance from the all-time high may provide some cause for temporary concern, but a breakout here would provide a great entry should we get a retest of ~$33 subsequently, with a target of the all-time high followed by price discovery. As long as it can break out here as opposed to print a lower-high below trendline resistance, I think it is primed for continuation; print that lower-high and lose $30 again and this is going below $23.

Turning to FLOW/BTC, we see a similar pattern here, albeit with a trendline breakout having occurred already and prior support being reclaimed today at 53.8k satoshis. Hold above this level and I think FLOW is good to go, with 67.5k satoshis the next resistance, followed by the all-time high at 83k. Above that, the 1.618 extension is around 106k satoshis. If the pair fails to hold 53.8k, I think that resistance turned support at 45.5k gets retested; a break below that would likely lead to another 10-15% dump into 39k.


COTI:

COTI/USD

Weekly:

COTIUSDWeekly

Daily:

COTIUSDDaily

COTI/BTC

Weekly:

COTIBTCWeekly

Daily:

COTIBTCDaily

Price: $0.48 (824 satoshis)

Market Cap: $320.559mn

Thoughts: Beginning with COTI/USD, last week saw prices hit a new all-time high at $0.58 but close back inside the current resistance area at $0.51, suggesting that $0.51 is the level to reclaim this week in order to invalidate a potential deviation. As such, I want to see strength from COTI here; if we close below $0.51 again, it may indicate a little more consolidation is needed before we can make another leg higher. If we look at the daily, that could be back at the higher low around $0.37, although that would potentially break the current parabola. It is make or break time for COTI. It needs to find some momentum over the next week or so. If we close the daily below $0.31, I’d consider that a market structure break after a complacency high and potentially the end of the cycle – time to pay attention.

Turning to COTI/BTC, the August 2020 high at 843 satoshis continues to prove difficult to overcome, with last week trading into a new high at 1047 satoshis (though still shy of the all-time high around 1300), but closing back inside 830. I would like to see this week close above that resistance to confirm that the consolidation is going to lead to continuation as opposed to downside from here. Looking at the daily, it is possible we see a formation like that of ANKR/BTC when it contested its August 2020 highs, where we print somewhat of an ascending triangle over the next week or two and then break out violently into the 1.618 extension at 1290 (and beyond). At the moment, that 550 satoshi low is the one to hold; above that, the pair still looks bullish; break and close below that and it is game over, in my opinion.


Syscoin:

SYS/USD

Weekly:

SYSUSDWeekly

Daily:

SYSUSDDaily

SYS/BTC

Weekly:

SYSBTCWeekly

Daily:

SYSBTCDaily

Price: $0.372 (640 satoshis)

Market Cap: $226.581mn

Thoughts: Syscoin continues to look bullish as the weeks go by and we now look ready for another 50% pop against the dollar.

Beginning with SYS/USD, we can see that the parabolic trend remains intact and that the pair is currently trading above resistance at $0.30, with the next resistance 57% higher at $0.625. I expect this gap to be filled over the coming weeks, with $1 the primary target at the 1.618 extension. Looking at the daily, we have clearly yet to really begin accelerating, as the pair has been rallying steadily for several weeks – that said, the steepness of the rally is now increasing and so I would expect April to provide fireworks for Syscoin.

Turning to SYS/BTC, we have just closed the weekly above the prior weekly high at 585 satoshis, reclaiming support and turning market structure bullish. From here, I would like to see the pair push on into the midpoint of the range at 1000 satoshis, followed by the August 2020 high at 1827 satoshis, which is my main target for profit-taking. If the pair is able to close above that level, there is a massive gap to fill all the way into 3744 satoshis, by which point I will no doubt have exited my entire position. Looking at the daily, we have reclaimed the 200dMA and 360dMA and support at 583 satoshis, and this is now an area for compounding the position for me. Onwards and upwards…


Flamingo:

FLM/USD

Daily:

FLMUSDDaily

FLM/BTC

Daily:

FLMBTCDaily

Price: $0.67 (1158 satoshis)

Market Cap: $100.841mn

Thoughts: Flamingo is on the verge of looking exquisite on both pairs.

If we look firstly at the dollar pair, we can see it traded near all-time high volume yesterday as price broke above the double top at $0.58 and closed just shy of the all-time high at $0.64. Today, we have seen continuation above and beyond the all-time high on record volume, with a new high printed at $0.72. I’d like to see this not get faded, with a daily close above the prior high signalling price discovery is beginning with $0.80 and $1.12 the next major targets from here. If the pair does close back inside the prior high, I’d consider this a deviation and would expect $0.58 to be retested as support at the very least.

Turning to FLM/BTC, we are very close to a breakout here that would likely fuel significant upside on both pair. 1320 satoshis has capped price since mid November 2020, so if we get  a daily close above that level, I’d be looking to get long FLM for the inefficiency fill all the way into 2143 satoshis. We can also see a bit of an inverse H&S formation here, if you’re a pattern trader, so that 1320 level would be the neckline trigger, should we close above it. Plenty of upside here if the level gives way – let’s see what happens over the next few days. Keep a close eye on it for a breakout.


Constellation:

DAG/USD

Weekly:

DAGUSDWeekly

Daily:

DAGUSDDaily

DAG/BTC

Weekly:

Daily:

DAGBTCDaily

Price: $0.0814 (140 satoshis)

Market Cap: $103.147mn

Thoughts: Looking firstly at DAG/USD, we can see that new all-time highs continue to be printed on a weekly basis with a new high printing today at $0.083. Following last week’s impressive expansion candle closing at all-time highs, I think this week sees continuation, with the 500% extension aligning with the $0.10 psychological figure as the first area for potential profit-taking to occur. Personally, I am expecting the 1000% extension at $0.197 to be hit before the cycle ends, given where DAG is on its BTC chart, so that is where I will be looking to begin taking profits. Dropping into the daily, we have put in a higher low on this parabolic rally at $0.055 (prior resistance), so that is now the level I’d like to see hold for trend continuation.

Turning to DAG/BTC, the weekly has just closed above trendline resistance from the 2019 high at 326 satoshis on significant volume, indicating that acceleration is imminent. Looking ahead, the 222 satoshi high from 2020 will be the next resistance to overcome, followed by that December 2019 high at 326, which will be my first area for profit-taking. Above that, the 1.618 extension of that high aligns with the all-time high weekly close around 513, which is also conveniently close to the 500-satoshi psychological figure, so that is my main target before this cycle concludes. If the pair managed to run from 19 satoshis to 325 during an altcoin bear market, I see no reason why it cannot run from 19 to 500 in these quite frankly ridiculous market conditions. Let’s see, eh.

And that concludes this week’s Market Outlook.

I hope you’ve found some value in the read and thank you for supporting my work!

As ever, feel free to leave any comments or questions below, or email me directly at nik@altcointradershandbook.com.


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This Post Has 4 Comments

  1. tarik pascal

    Hi Nik, Can you please include powerledger in your next report 🙂

  2. edotrader611

    Hey Nik,

    Thank you for your analysis, yours are the absolute ones I trust the most. I ask you for an opinion on BTC dominance, are we in line with that of the previous cycle? do you think if it remained stable at 60% the alts market could still continue to rise throughout this cycle?

    Best,
    Edo

    1. Nik

      Hey Edo,

      Apologies for the late response. I think that we are now seeing dominance begin to drop lower, as expected, with ETH BNB and XRP leading the charge. As the largest ten or so alts account for the bulk of altcoin market cap, it is the performance of those that largely determine how dominance moves – as such, it is totally possible that dominance could stagnate if ETH and all the other mega-alts consolidate, whilst midcaps and lowcaps continue to rally. We have seen this occur already this year.

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