You are currently viewing Market Outlook #115

Market Outlook #115

Market Outlook #115 (8th March 2021)

Hello, and welcome to the 115th instalment of my Market Outlook.

In this week’s post, I will be covering Bitcoin, Ethereum, Binance Coin, Cardano, Cosmos, EOS, Zilliqa, Fetch.ai, COTI and Chromia. I will also be providing updated analysis on Altcoin Market Cap.

As ever, if you have any suggestions for the next post, feel free to leave them in the comments below.

Bitcoin:

Weekly:

BTCUSDWeekly

Daily:

BTCUSDDaily

Price: $50,617

Market Cap: $937.47bn

Thoughts: As expected, the past week of price-action for BTC/USD was relatively muted.

If we begin by looking at the weekly chart, we can see here that the pair has printed an inside week, where the range of last week was very much within the range of the preceding week. Volume was markedly lower too, as one would expect during a consolidation week, and it may yet be another week of consolidation before the pair really begins to move again. Trendline support is untested since the January range, so I am watching out for a potential retest before this current range is resolved. There isn’t a great deal to add on the weekly view, beyond the fact that the $42-43k area remains the most important support; as long as we are above that, I remain bullish and in expectation of trend continuation later this month.

Turning to the daily, we can see that the pair formed a higher low a few days ago at ~$46,800, which is quite interesting. If we look back to the January range, a higher low on the daily formed after the first lower high, culminating in a capitulation sell-off into $28,645; the higher low following that capitulation began the reversal. So, there is no way yet to tell whether this higher-low will hold or whether the January fractal will repeat, leading to a retest of the $43k low and potentially a brief wick below it before a full reversal. However, if we see the pair break to a new higher high above $52,600, that would indicate to me that the reversal to all-time highs is now underway, as market structure on the daily would turn bullish once again. Nonetheless, even in that scenario, I am not expecting an explosive run back to $58k immediately; rather, it is likely that we continue to range for a while (albeit a shorter while should we flip $52,600) and grind higher in the manner of January. Serious acceleration will occur post-ATH break, in my opinion, where we will likely see that $64k area tagged within a few days of $58.4k giving way, with $67,682 the next minor resistance above that, as the 1.618 extension of the current range.


Ethereum:

ETH/USD

Weekly:

ETHUSDWeekly

Daily:

ETHUSDDaily

ETH/BTC

Weekly:

ETHBTCWeekly

Daily:

ETHBTCDaily

Price: $1723 (0.03404 BTC)

Market Cap: $199.123bn

Thoughts: At last, I believe we have found our ETH/BTC bottom, and it is likely Ethereum returns to outperforming, particularly in the context of the July EIP-1559 proposal that was recently confirmed.

To begin with, let’s look at ETH/USD. From the weekly, we can see that the prior all-time high at ~$1420 held firm last week, with price bouncing from the weekly open at that level all the way into the weekly close above $1700. The low at $1293 from the preceding week is now critical support, and I would expect it to remain the bottom prior to the next leg higher into $2240+. Given the fundamental narrative now pointing to July, I believe it is likely we see ETH continue to rally into late June, which, at the current rate, would see us above $2750. Further, weekly RSI has now cooled off significantly enough to provide plenty of room to the upside before we reach overbought conditions again. Dropping into the daily, the pair has recently reclaimed $1650 as support, turning market structure bullish once again after the sweep of the low at $1356 into $1293. I am now expecting ETH/USD to hold above those prior all-time highs and continue its ascent towards $2042 over the next couple of weeks.

Turning to ETH/BTC, the pair appears to have formed a bottom, almost precisely at the level we have been looking at for the past few weeks. Last week saw the pair bounce from channel support, holding above the preceding week’s low at 0.03 and closing back inside the channel and above the prior weekly high, indicating strength. This looks like a relatively clean resistance > support flip, with the area that capped the pair going into 2021 now holding firm as support. If we drop into the daily, we can also see that local trendline resistance has been broken and the 200dMA reclaimed; two things I pointed out last week as key indicators for a reversal. I would now like to see 0.035 flipped as support, following which I expect to see the pair accelerate back towards the 2020 high at 0.0406, where we may find some resistance. However, the multi-year trend remains intact, so I am expecting a higher high to follow above that 0.046 area, with 0.053 my primary target. I see no reason to be bearish ETH now unless 0.03 is lost.


Binance Coin:

BNB/USD

Weekly:

BNBUSDWeekly

Daily:

BNBUSDDaily

BNB/BTC

Weekly:

BNBBTCWeekly

Daily:

BNBBTCDaily

Price: $234.27 (0.0046 BTC)

Market Cap: $36.202bn

Thoughts: Binance Coin, as I’m sure you’re all aware, has had a momentous start to 2021, rallying to nearly 10x its previous all-time high against the dollar.

If we begin by looking at BNB/USD, we can see the extent of this rally, with three weeks of insane strength sending it from channel resistance into a new all-time high at $375, below which it is now consolidating. In fact, we have now had two consecutive inside weeks, with RSI now cooling off back to less overbought levels. Despite the insane rally, the pair does just appear to be consolidating below resistance, as opposed to distributing, so it may well have room to push on beyond its current high. The next major resistance should it get back above the all-time high would be the 1500% extension at $606. If we look at the daily, we can see the range more clearly, with support having been found at $183, over 50% off the all-time high and likely to be as deep a dip as you might expect to get in a bull market. As such, that $183 is an important level to hold above; should we see the pair break and close below that, I would think that the bull cycle is likely over for BNB, with market structure bearish. Hold above it and I don’t see why BNB couldn’t at least retest the $375 high if not break above it. Whilst there are still trades here for short-term positions, however, I do not see much point in anyone entering long-term spot positions here, as downside risks are significantly larger than the potential upside at this point.

Looking at BNB/BTC, the pair managed to close the weekly above the prior all-time high at 0.00484 a few weeks back, wicking into a new all-time high at 0.00668, the 2.618 extension of the September 2020 high. As seen on the Dollar pair, BNB is now consolidating, with its BTC pair consolidating around that previous all-time high. As long as it is able to hold this area, I think it has another push higher in it, but should we see the weekly start to reject 0.00484, there is a large gap into the next support at 0.00318. Looking at the daily, local support at 0.00408 is what I am looking at, with any break below it likely spelling the beginning of the complacency phase of the market cycle. Continue to consolidate above that low and I think the pair retests 0.00668; close above that and the next resistance is just shy of 0.009.


Cardano:

ADA/USD

Weekly:

ADAUSDWeekly

Daily:

ADAUSDDaily

ADA/BTC

Weekly:

ADABTCWeekly

Daily:

ADABTCDaily

Price: $1.12 (2199 satoshis)

Market Cap: $35.724bn

Thoughts: Cardano has been on a tear over recent weeks, but the fun might be over (at least for a short while).

If we begin by looking at ADA/USD, we can see that the pair broke above its all-time high at $1.39 a couple of weeks ago, wicking into $1.55 on a lot of volume but ultimately closing below the prior ATH. Last week, the pair traded back into $1.39 but rejected again, ultimately closing the weekly well below that level, suggesting that ADA isn’t quite ready for price discovery above the all-time high just yet. If we turn to the daily, the picture isn’t so bearish just yet, with the trend clearly pointing higher and with higher-lows holding firm; in fact, last week’s low held above the highest weekly close of all-time at $0.98. That said, we are now seeing bearish divergence into this all-time high, but we have seen this before – ETH/USD did precisely the same thing before pushing through the all-time high. As such, it is possible that $0.98 holds as support and ADA begins another leg higher, with $2.20 the next major resistance above.

However, if we look at ADA/BTC, on the daily we can see that the parabolic advance has broken recently, with the pair rallying into 3203 satoshis, rejecting and selling off. This does not necessitate that the cycle for ADA is finished, but it does indicate that it may need a period of re-accumulation before further advance. The pair is sitting just shy of the prior range resistance at 2100, which is a key area to hold as new support. If ADA can hold above that level and range for a short while, it may provide the fuel for a new parabolic advance to begin that sends it through its all-time high against the Dollar. The picture on the weekly is certainly still strong, and if the pair can form a higher low around here, the next resistance would be 4237 satoshis, which is almost 100% higher from here. It might just take a couple of weeks of consolidation before it has the fuel to get there.


Cosmos:

ATOM/USD

Weekly:

ATOMUSDWeekly

Daily:

ATOMUSDDaily

ATOM/BTC

Weekly:

ATOMBTCWeekly

Daily:

ATOMBTCDaily

Price: $18.94 (37,150 satoshis)

Market Cap: $4.001bn

Thoughts: If we begin by looking at ATOM/USD, we can see from the weekly that the pair remains inside the range marked out a couple of weeks ago, with support holding firm for now at $14.66 and resistance being the all-time high at $27.85. Last week saw an inside week printed on very low volume, much like on other majors. As long as ATOM holds above $14.66, I think we are simply consolidating before a push higher above $28. Turning to the daily, I would like to see the pair break back above $21.53, which is capping price at the moment, along with trendline resistance. Close above that area and I think we see ATOM push on for new all-time highs.

Looking at ATOM/BTC, we remain in consolidation in an important area, with the bodies of the past few weekly candles becoming ever smaller, suggesting that expansion  is likely imminent. If ATOM fails to hold above 36k satoshis, we can expect to see 33k retested; close below that and the 2020 lows at 26k satoshis are likely the next area of interest. If we drop into the daily, the pair is currently pressing right up against trendline support from the all-time low, as well as holding above the 200dMA and 360dMA confluence; it doesn’t appear as though the trendline will provide much support, with the pair looking as though it is simply consolidating through it. However, as long as we are above those two MAs I think we push higher towards that pivot at 47k satoshis sooner rather than later.


EOS:

EOS/USD

Weekly:

EOSUSDWeekly

Daily:

EOSUSDDaily

EOS/BTC

Weekly:

EOSBTCWeekly

Daily:

Price: $3.84 (7538 satoshis)

Market Cap: $3.641bn

Thoughts: EOS has returned inside the previous range against the dollar, which is something I mentioned that I did not want to see, so I have cut my position. If we look at the weekly for EOS/USD, the week before last sold off from resistance at $5.57 and closed back below the triple top at $3.90; I wanted to see that area hold as support, which it has failed to do. If we look at the daily, the level is acting as resistance again, indicating relative weakness. With so many strong alts around, I don’t see any reason to remain positioned in EOS given this weakness. If the pair reclaims $3.90, it might be good for a push back into $5.57, but I’d prefer to be positioned elsewhere to be honest.

Looking at EOS/BTC, we can see on the daily that it failed to hold above prior resistance turned support at 9120 satoshis and subsequently sold off further, now retesting 7890 satoshis as resistance, having initially bounced from that area in February. The pair is meekly holding above the all-time low at 6910 satoshis, which, given the extent of the retrace from 11k satoshis, is likely to now be swept before any meaningful reversal can take place. Far better options in the market at present.


Zilliqa:

ZIL/USD

Weekly:

ZILUSDWeekly

Daily:

ZILUSDDaily

ZIL/BTC

Weekly:

ZILBTCWeekly

Daily:

ZILBTCDaily

Price: $0.123 (242 satoshis)

Market Cap: $1.36bn

Thoughts: If we begin by looking at ZIL/USD, from the weekly we can see that the pair remains in a strong uptrend, having broken out of the prior range and expanding into resistance at $0.17 a few weeks ago. It has since retested the prior range as support and held above the high at $0.10, now pressing up against trendline support. I would like to see ZIL continue higher from here, with the all-time high weekly close at $0.18 the final resistance before the all-time high at $0.235. Turning to the daily, trendline resistance is currently capping the pair from the $0.17 high, and if the current trendline support is to remain relevant, we would need to see the pair break above $0.13 later this week, thus turning daily market structure bullish once again and opening up the reversal into the all-time high. Given the market conditions, I think it is likely we see some sort of blow-off top well above the all-time high over the coming weeks, and I will be looking to begin exiting my position above $0.23.

Turning to ZIL/BTC, we remain capped by historical support turned resistance around 310 satoshis, and I expect real price discovery for the dollar pair to begin following a breakout above this area, with a weekly close above it opening up a move into the 600 satoshi area, which is both the 200% extension of the current trend and just shy of the 23.6% retracement of the entire bear market. Briefly looking at the daily, the only point of importance here is that the range at present appears to be between the 200dMA and that 344 satoshi level as resistance; whilst we’re above the 200dMA, I fully expect for an upside breakout to follow.


Fetch.ai:

FET/USD

Weekly:

FETUSDWeekly

Daily:

FETUSDDaily

FET/BTC

Weekly:

FETBTCWeekly

Daily:

FETBTCDaily

Price: $0.43 (853 satoshis)

Market Cap: $324.49mn

Thoughts: FET is finally pushing on for that all-time high against the Dollar but the BTC pair still has a way to run until it hits that August 2020 high that seems to be acting like a magnet for alts at present.

If we look at FET/USD, last week saw the pair close firmly above resistance at $0.35, with today’s price-action taking it into $0.46, just 20% or so shy of the all-time high at $0.54. I expect FET to stall there for a short while, but I am looking for the 3.618 extension at $0.72 to be tagged this month. Dropping into the daily, we still have some room to push higher before we return to extremely overbought conditions on the RSI, and as long as the pair holds above that prior range resistance at $0.347 I think we see FET continue to march higher this week. All-time highs incoming.

Turning to FET/BTC, it seems to be a trend among midcap alts to rally towards the 1.618 extension of the August 2020 high, so I am looking for 2440 satoshis to be tagged before FET ends its bull cycle. If we look at the daily, the pair has recently reclaimed the 200dMA and 360dMA, retesting both as support before beginning another leg higher, with it now pressing up into prior support turned resistance at 850 satoshis. Flip this level as support again and there is no more resistance before 1383 satoshis, with the August 2020 high just above that at 1556. Once that high gets tagged, I will begin exiting my position in FET, as a near 10x against BTC is nothing to scoff at, but I do expect it to overshoot the high and look for ~2400 satoshis soon after.


COTI:

COTI/USD

Weekly:

COTIUSDWeekly

Daily:

COTIUSDDaily

COTI/BTC

Weekly:

COTIBTCWeekly

Daily:

COTIBTCDaily

Price: $0.41 (814 satoshis)

Market Cap: $277.728mn

Thoughts: As mentioned in previous posts, what we saw occur with Fantom has now begun occurring on numerous midcap alts, with COTI currently leading the charge.

If we look at COTI/USD, the pair has closed above channel resistance and is firmly in price discovery mode at new all-time highs, with today’s price-action taking it into the 500% extension of the August high. This may be an area for COTI to cool down for a short while, particularly when one considers that its BTC pair is also now trading into resistance. That said, much like FTM, I expect the 1000% extension to be hit over the next few weeks, which for COTI would put it just shy of $0.80. That is where I’d like to take off the bulk of my position, holding some for any further moon-shot into $1 and beyond.

Turning to COTI/BTC, we are now trading into that 2020 high, with Binance having breached it this morning but Kucoin lagging due to the discrepancies between native COTI and ERC-20 COTI. I would like to see this 2020 high flipped, but it may be more likely that in the short-term we consolidate around the high, reaccumulate and then see the pair push on for the 1.618 extension at 1200 satoshis and the all-time high at 1300 satoshis. As this is being written, COTI is just shy of a 2x away from cracking the top 100 cryptocurrency projects, and I expect it to do so before its cycle ends.


Chromia:

CHR/USD

Weekly:

CHRUSDWeekly

Daily:

CHRUSDDaily

CHR/BTC

Weekly:

CHRBTCWeekly

Daily:

CHRBTCDaily

Price: $0.10 (200 satoshis)

Market Cap: $43.92mn

Thoughts: Unlike Fantom, Fetch.ai and COTI, Chromia is still sitting below its 200dMA and 360dMA against BTC, providing a great opportunity to shift some profits from positions that have extended beyond their August 2020 highs.

If we look firstly at CHR/USD, we can see from the weekly that Chromia is pressing up against the all-time high weekly close at $0.10, which is providing some resistance; however, close above that level and I think we fly into the all-time high at $0.15, with $0.185 and $0.236 the minor resistances above it. There isn’t a lot to add from the daily chart except that the market structure looks textbook, with prior resistances being flipped as support and this $0.10 being the most important area to flip.

It is the CHR/BTC chart, however, that is really attractive, as the pair has only just reclaimed support at 182 satoshis, with price finding resistance here at the 200dMA and still 20% below the 360dMA. Like we have seen with other alts with similar charts, I expect we’ll see acceleration towards the 2020 high at 785 satoshis once that 360dMA is flipped, so this may well be the ideal buying area. I am certainly moving some more capital into CHR here from overextended positions…


Altcoin Market Cap:

ALT/USD

Weekly:

ALTUSDWeekly

Daily:

ALTUSDDaily

ALT/BTC

Weekly:

ALTBTCWeekly

Daily:

ALTBTCDaily

Market Cap: $623.81bn (12.4mn BTC)

Thoughts: Beginning with ALT/USD, from the weekly chart we can see that the altcoin market recently broke to new all-time highs at $700bn, having closed firmly above the prior high at $560bn a few weeks ago. The market then corrected, retesting the prior high as support and last week we saw alts print a strong reversal candle, closing back above the $560bn area. Altcoins have been in a parabolic advance since March 2020, and as of yet that parabola doesn’t look to be ending; if the current trajectory remains intact, we can expect the altcoin market to be valued at $1.4trn – the 2.618 extension of the bear market – by June. Further, Weekly RSI hit extremely overbought conditions – 97 to be precise – when the market hit $700bn, and that has historically been an RSI figure that has led to corrections. We have since returned to below 80 (the lowest of 2021 thus far) and I think we now have the room to continue higher. Turning to the daily chart, the prior all-time high at $560bn is acting as support at present, with $525bn being the range low that has not been closed below since the market broke above it a few weeks ago. We have since seen alts push higher off this support, now within 10% of a new all-time high. I expect we will see trend continuation for alts this week, with the 1.618 extension at $880bn the next primary resistance.

Finally, looking at ALT/BTC on the weekly timeframe, we can see that alts have largely been in a consolidation range between their 360wMA and 200wMA against Bitcoin, with the 200wMA holding firm as range resistance. However, alts are now beginning to outperform again and the market is pushing for a retest of that 200wMA. If the altcoin market can get above that area on the next attempt, I think we see a period of significant altcoin outperformance follow, with the potential for the market to return to a similar valuation to that of Q2 2017. Whether we see new all-time highs for the entire market valuation against BTC, I am not sure, but I do think we will see a sharp period of outperformance soon.

And that concludes this week’s Market Outlook.

I hope you’ve found some value in the read and thank you for supporting my work!

As ever, feel free to leave any comments or questions below, or email me directly at nik@altcointradershandbook.com.


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