Market Outlook #1

It’s been two months since my last long-form post, and I recently had the idea to create a new page for the website titled Market Outlook. Here, I will post detailed weekly market updates, including Bitcoin and altcoin charts and other thoughts on current sentiment, and the page will operate separately to the main blog. The latter will continue to be updated, although perhaps more sporadically, and will feature a mix of short and long-form posts on recent interviews and podcast appearances; methods of analysis; altcoin research; case-studies like that of the Blackcoin rich-list; AMAs; and other miscellaneous posts that I think will be either entertaining or insightful.

Market Outlook, however, will be a weekly post, every Sunday, that primarily provides chart updates on altcoins I’m currently in or that I’m considering more carefully. This will also be the exclusive place to find my updated charts (aside from the odd one I throw up on Twitter now and then); for those of you that are members of the Telegram channel in which I post a stream of my charts, I will be migrating all future posting to this website. It just makes more sense for me to have everything in one place. Plus, the reason I created the Telegram in the first place was to give myself access to a consistent stream of my own charts, so this is just a better way for me to do that. For the 6,000 of you in there, you’ll still be able to follow the progression of those ideas, if you find them valuable; it’ll just be here rather than there.

Now, on with the show.


Market Outlook #1 (9th September 2018)

So, for this first Market Outlook post, there’s five coins in particular I’m paying attention to. And, uncommonly, all five are high-caps. We’ll begin with BTC, of course, and then I’ll be running through Monero, Ethereum, Stratis and Ardor; four coins I have bought positions in recently.

Bitcoin:

Price: $6390

Market Cap: $110.78bn

Thoughts: Bitcoin is in a very precarious position at the moment. Price is hovering above the long-term support that has been formed around $6000, with numerous double-tops and double-bottoms visible on the daily chart, prime for sweeping. It really could go either way from this point, though I am bullish until we see a weekly close below $5800. I find it quite interesting that the majority of the price-action is taking place within the weekly bullish orderblock. Regardless, we should get our answer as to the direction of the next few months of price-action within a fortnight. Cross your fingers for a breakout to the upside and a weekly close above $7500.


Monero:

XMR/USD

XMR/BTC

Price: $106.94 (0.0167 BTC)

Market Cap: $1.75bn (274,374 BTC)

Thoughts: I really like the Monero chart (both, USD and BTC). Price seems to have broken out from long-term downtrends across-the-board, and it has held up well given the recent Bitcoin dump. I’d like to see $100 hold and some volume come into play for the next attempt at breaking through that heavy resistance around $140-150. I bought heavily between $85-95. What I don’t want to see is a daily close below $80/0.013 BTC.


Ethereum:

ETH/USD

ETH/BTC

Price: $206.35 (0.0323 BTC)

Market Cap: $21.02bn (3,289,652 BTC)

Thoughts: The panic is real regarding ETH, especially amongst crypto-Twitter. That’s usually the perfect signal to begin scaling into longer-term positions. And, having cross-compared the ETH charts, what do you know? Price just so happens to be at long-term support for both, USD and BTC. Also, ETH/BTC is approaching the daily bullish orderblock, from which price previously exploded 422%. Corresponding volume has been relatively significant, though I’d imagine we’ll see a little more blood and volume before a genuine bottom is found. However, I’m scaling into an investment-esque position below $200. What I don’t want to see is a weekly close below 0.022 BTC.


Stratis:

STRAT/USD

STRAT/BTC

Price: $1.48 (0.00023102 BTC)

Market Cap: $146.96mn (22,873 BTC)

Thoughts: The fact that STRAT has declined 95% from its ATH in BTC, and has recently broken out of its near-nine-month downtrend, is a good sign, in my opinion, that a bottom has been found. A short-term accumulation range also seems to be forming between 20-25k satoshis. However, when cross-compared with STRAT/USD, price seems to have rejected off of prior support now turned resistance, and may be seeking new lows. I have started buying at around 23k satoshis, and will exit my position if we get a daily close below 18k satoshis. Ideally, the market will see some more volume come in at these prices, and the resistance at $2.20 will be reclaimed.


Ardor:

ARDR/USD

ARDR/BTC

Price: $0.097 (0.00001518 BTC)

Market Cap: $96.88mn (15,160 BTC)

Thoughts: Ardor is rather interesting to me, as it recently experienced ~5% of its circulating supply traded within one day – roughly $9.6mn-worth at the average price during that day. That’s a lot of ARDR and a lot of interest. Price has since experienced a low-volume sell-off, down to the long-term accumulation range. This is a buy signal if ever there was one, and I am buying below 1600 satoshis.

And thus concludes our first Market Outlook.


If you’ve enjoyed this post and want to receive new posts straight to your inbox, I’ve set up a RSS-to-Email feed that will be sent out weekly; every Monday, 12pm. Just submit your email and I’ll make sure you’re included in the list. Cheers.

14 thoughts on “Market Outlook #1”

  1. There are those who engage in this type of trading without sufficient knowledge; however, there are day traders who make a successful living despite, or perhaps because of, the risks.

  2. Great Idea Nik, read your book twice now, well the trading bit twice (-: , been very helpful and its great your keeping the project going with this blog, keep up the good work!!

  3. Hi Nick, great job. I love the idea of a weekly market outlook.

    I see that in this analysis you have focused on High Caps. Taking into account the current phase of the market in which we are and in reference to the Portfolio management, what would be your general recommendation for the distribution between Highcaps/Midcaps/Lowcaps/Microcaps? Any variation in comparison with te recommendations of the book?

    Thanks you.

    1. Hey Mike,

      In all honesty, I think this is the first time since Q1 2017 that high-caps are reaching levels at which I think it’s probably smarter to go high-cap heavy within a portfolio. Where I have previously kept my high-cap allocation very low, I will be looking to employ 50+% of capital in top 100 coins as I shift my portfolio around. This is primarily because even major coins like ETH and XMR have lost 85+% of their value, and so have become very attractive regarding ROI relative to risk.

  4. Nik, keep up the great work. I love your insights and your methods, not only analysing charts.
    I’m currently going through your book and loving the work you’ve created. Great idea for a web Blog to add to your social arsenal.

    Great stuff, admiring your work.

    1 question though.
    Do you have any long-term alt that you have been holding since Dec/Jan ATH, or do you join the belief of Bitcoin Maximalism?

    Rich
    https://twitter.com/richardpop3

    1. Thanks – appreciate the kind words.

      I don’t have any long-term alts that I’ve held since Dec/Jan, only remainder positions in trades that I didn’t sell during that period. I have recently bought a long-term position in Monero, around $90. I’m not really a maximalist for anything: when Bitcoin is cheap, it makes sense to stack BTC; when it’s expensive, it makes sense to stack whatever is cheap relative to it.

  5. First up man – your book is helpful at an EPIC level – best $ I’ve spent in a while and really enjoyed the story of the journey as much as the insights.

    Thank you.

    Have found myself spending more time looking at alts against BTC than USD recently, but the comparative weekly/daily that you showed above was fascinating – will dig into that a bit more. Already looking forward to the next update… and more quality shitposting of course 🙂

    1. Ah, awesome. I’m glad you got that much value out of it!

      And I think it’s important to look at both, especially for high-caps/mid-caps. It’s something I neglected to do (regarding ALT/USD charts) in January.

  6. Will you post al updates in your Telegram ? Since the Twitter fighting scammers and lock-in followers debacle, I’m blocked and can’t follow you on twitter anymore

    PS: I was looking for a way to contact you regarding your short novels, I’m a filmmaker and was interested in reading some

      1. Hey, I won’t be updating the Telegram anymore, as it just makes more sense for me to have everything in one place (this website). Give me your username and I’ll unblock you, or you can subscribe using the form at the bottom of the post and you’ll be emailed every Monday with the previous week’s posts and updates!

        And, there’s a Contact tab in the menu above the header; just fill that in and I’ll get back to you.

  7. I’ve signed up to the weekly post.
    The content is great 👍🏻
    Keep up the good work.
    P.s. really enjoyed your book.

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