Welcome to the 53rd Coin Report. In today’s report, I will be assessing the fundamental and technical strengths and weaknesses of OriginTrail. This will be comprised of an analysis of a number of significant metrics, an evaluation of the project’s community and development and an overview of its price-history. The report will conclude with a grading out of 10. I hope you enjoy the read!
Introduction
This is the first of my subscriber-exclusive Coin Reports, with OriginTrail winning the May poll. Each month, I will run a poll and publish a Coin Report on the winner the following month, available only to those of you that are subscribed to my premium content. Keep your eyes out for the June poll, which will be hitting your inboxes soon. You’ll be able to add whichever coins you’d like featured to the poll yourselves!
I hope this report will prove objective where it must be and fair on more subjective matters. For those who’d like to learn a little more about OriginTrail prior to reading this report, here are some primary links:
Fundamental Analysis
General:
Name: OriginTrail (Trace Token)
Ticker: TRAC
Algorithm: N/A (ERC-20)
Sector: Supply Chains
Exchanges: Bittrex, Kucoin, IDEX and HitBTC
Launch Overview
OriginTrail was launched in 2013, with an alpha version for organic beef products, long before its introduction to blockchain. Four years later, in 2017, the team began testing the product on the Ethereum testnet, with a Shanghai office established later that year for their growing Chinese market.
In Q1 2018, OriginTrail launched their token sale, which raised $22.5mn and sold out immediately, with investors issued TRAC – the Trace token – in exchange. 500,000,000 TRAC were created in total, with 50% of these issued in the token sale to the public. 20% of the total supply was allocated towards future development, 5% to the liquidity pool, 18% to the founders and PreICO investors, 5% to the team and 2% to bounties. The token was issued on the ERC-20 standard.
In June 2018, OriginTrail launched their own testnet and in Q4 2018 their mainnet went live.
Price-History Overview
As the Trace token created by OriginTrail has been in existence now for around two years, there is a great deal of available price-history. Though I will get into the bulk of this in the Technical Analysis section, for now it will suffice to say that TRAC formed its all-time high at 4097 satoshis in May 2018, though this was effectively equal to the high formed the week after initial listing in February 2018. Its all-time low formed at 92 satoshis in November 2019.
Project Overview
OriginTrail is a project focused specifically on one (albeit large and broad) use-case: supply chains, and, by proxy, data exchange.
As stated in its whitepaper:
“Blockchain technology has huge potential to decentralize trust in supply chains and bring measurable benefits and value to the public and private sectors. To unlock this potential, the OriginTrail protocol was designed purposefully to tackle the main challenges which limit the fluent exchange of, and integrity of data in product supply chains. With supply chain data becoming increasingly fragmented, scalability and cost concerns of current decentralized solutions become evident.
OriginTrail is a unique solution allowing IT providers in supply chains to set up blockchain supported data sharing in multi-organizational environment. It helps them build transparency beyond the “one step down, one step up” traceability principle. Furthermore, it improves the integrity of product data and drives efficiencies for stakeholders. The first version of the OriginTrail solution is proven and currently deployed in the food industry. The upcoming open source version will be suitable to any product supply chain such as automotive, consumer goods, pharmaceutical etc.“
Let’s begin with some Metric Analysis:
Metric Analysis:
Below are listed a number of important metrics, all of which are accurate as of 12th June 2020. For anyone reading this who has yet to read a Coin Report, it might be worth reading this section of the first report, where any potentially unfamiliar terms are explained. For any terms or metrics specific to this post, I will provide explanations besides the figures.
Metrics:
General:
Price: $0.062 (660 satoshis)
Circulating Supply: 275,087,592 TRAC
Total Supply: 500,000,000 TRAC
Exchange Volume: $130,108
Network Value: $16.995mn (1812.8 BTC)
Maximum Supply: 500,000,000 TRAC
% of Max. Supply Minted: 100%
Network Value at Max. Supply: $30.89mn
Exchange Volume-to-Network Value: 0.77%
Category: Lowcap
Average Price (30-Day): $0.036
Average Exchange Volume (30-Day): $93,199
Average Network Value (30-Day): $9.75mn
Average Exchange Volume (30-Day)-to-Network Value: 0.96%
Volatility* (30-Day): -0.5166
Average Daily On-Chain Transactions (30-Day): 87.3
Average Daily Transactional Value** (30-Day): $105,004
NVT*** (30-Day): 161.85
% Price Change USD (30-Day): +246.6%
% Price Change USD (1-Year): +154.6%
USD All-Time High: $0.364
% From USD All-Time High: -83%
Premine % of Max. Supply: N/A
Premine Location: N/A
Liquidity (calculated as the sum of BTC in the buy-side with 10% of current price across all exchanges): 3.82 BTC
Liquidity-to-Network Value %: 0.21%
Supply Available on Exchanges: 7,182,243 TRAC
% of Circulating Supply Available on Exchanges: 2.61%
*Volatility is calculated by taking the average price over the given time-period, calculating the difference between it and the highest price and it and the lowest price over that same time-period, and multiplying those figures together. The closer to 0, the less volatility during that period, and vice-versa. Read this for more on volatility.
**Transactional Value in $ is calculated by taking the daily transactional value in TRAC and multiplying it by price.
***NVT is calculated by dividing the Network Value by the Average Daily Transactional Value. See here for more on NVT.
Supply Emission & Inflation:
Block Reward Schedule: N/A
Average Block Time: N/A
Current Block Height: N/A
Annual Supply Emission: 0
Annual Inflation Rate: 0%
Circulating Supply in 365 Days: N/A
ICO:
The following details were taken from here and here.
ICO Period: January 2018
Total Coins: 500,000,000 TRAC
Coins Available For Sale: 250,000,000 TRAC
Coins Sold: 250,000,000 TRAC
Total Raised: $22,5mn
Average ICO Price Per Coin: $0.09
ICO Breakdown: 50% to the Token Sale; 20% to Future Development; 5% to the Liquidity Pool; 18% to the Founders and PreICO; 5% to the Team; and 2% to bounties.
Distribution:
Address Count: 10,868
Supply Held By Top 10 Addresses: 16.93%*
Supply Held By Top 20 Addresses: 22.56%
Supply Held By Top 100 Addresses: 35.78%
Inactive Address Count in Top 20 (30 Days of No Activity): 11**
*Excluding top 3 smart contract addresses, which control 38% of maximum supply, out of circulation.
**Excluding top 3 smart contract addresses and the exchange-owned addresses in the list.
Analysis:
There’s quite a lot to unpack here, and I’d like to begin by taking a look at the metrics related to on-chain transactions:
Thankfully, OriginTrail has a ERC-20 token, simplifying the research process, particularly for on-chain transaction analysis. That said, Etherscan did include exchange transactions within the transaction data-set, so I have excluded Average Exchange Volume of $93,199 from the figures to arrive at a net, non-speculative transactional value figure. I found that OriginTrail averaged 87.3 Daily On-Chain Transactions for the past month, amounting to Average Daily Transactional Value of $105,004, excluding the aforementioned exchange transactions. This is fairly impressive, off the bat, as it gives OriginTrail a NVT of 161.85; only twice that of Bitcoin at present.
Before we move on to more interesting metrics, I’d like to quickly highlight OriginTrail’s 30-day Volatility of -0.5166. This is the second-highest figure ever recorded in these reports and is clearly reflective of a move away from accumulation, as we shall discuss at length later.
Now, let’s take a look at the remaining General metrics before moving on to (the lack of) Supply Emission and finally Distribution:
Some of the most significant metrics to evaluate for speculators are those related to buy-side and sell-side Liquidity. I found OriginTrail to have buy-side Liquidity of 3.821 BTC within 10% of spot price across all listed exchanges, equating to 0.21% of its Network Value. This is around average among prior reports, placing it somewhere in the middle of the pack.
Concerning sell-side Liquidity, OriginTrail was found to have 7.18mn TRAC available for purchase in the orderbooks across all listed exchanges, equating to 2.61% of its Circulating Supply; the twentieth-highest figure among previous reports, placing it in the top half but again roughly average. As such, it appears there is a moderate degree of demand at current prices, met with a moderate desire to sell at any price.
Now, let’s take a look at the volume-related metrics:
OriginTrail traded $130,108 of Exchange Volume in the past 24 hours, equating to 0.77% of its Network Value; again, a modest figure. More importantly, its Average Daily Volume for the past month was $93,199, equating to 0.96% of its Average Network Value for the same period. Though there is clearly some speculative interest here, it is nothing overwhelming. This becomes more interesting when we consider the context of price within the current market cycle, as we shall in the Technical Analysis section.
Moving onto Supply Emission, as is generally the case with ERC-20 tokens that are offered in exchange for capital, their supply is capped at the amount created during the raise, hence there can be no further emissions. What this means for a speculator is that there are no headwinds to price growth via inflation. TRAC is one such token, with the maximum supply of 500,000,000 TRAC already in existence. As such, the current levels of traded volume and liquidity should be sufficient to sustain prices, with any declines in price most likely driven by speculative sentiment and manipulation as opposed to emission.
Finally, let’s take a look at Distribution:
I found that there are 10,868 holders of TRAC, which is the thirteenth-highest address count of all coins previously reported on (for which this data is available). With regards to concentration of supply, the top 10 addresses control 16.93% of total supply; the top 20 control 22.56%; and the top 100 control 35.78%. This is excluding the top 3 addresses, all of which are smart contracts, that contain 38% of the total supply but are out of circulation.
Within the top 20 addresses, 11 were inactive over the past 30 days, excluding those 3 smart contract addresses and the Kucoin, IDEX and Bittrex addresses that also occupy the list. As such, there were only 2 active privately-owned addresses. Both of these active addresses were in accumulation, having added to their address balances over the past 30 days. It is particularly interesting that there is no apparent distribution of TRAC occurring from the largest holders, despite price having rallied so significantly in recent weeks.
And that concludes this section on Metric Analysis. Onto the OriginTrail Community:
Community:
There are two primary aspects of community analysis: social media presence and Bitcointalk threads. I’ll begin with the former before moving on to the latter.
Social Media:
Concerning social media presence, there are four main platforms to examine: Twitter, Facebook, Telegram and Discord.
OriginTrail is present on all four platforms. To begin, let’s look at the various social metrics that I calculated from the OriginTrail Twitter and Facebook accounts:
Twitter Followers: 14,200
Tweets: 1,966
Average Twitter Engagement: 0.34%
Facebook Likes: 9,724
Facebook Posts (30-Day): 8
Average Facebook Engagement: 0.19%
As usual, I will be using RivalIQ‘s social benchmark report for evaluation purposes.
Twitter:
The OriginTrail Twitter account has a relatively large audience of 14,200 followers, with its engagement rate for the past 30 days coming in at 0.34%. In RivalIQ’s report, we find that the average Twitter engagement rate across all industries is 0.045%, which means that OriginTrail’s engagement rate is currently 7.5x greater. Relative to other coins, OriginTrail’s engagement is joint-thirteenth-lowest, placing it in the bottom quarter of previous reports. Overall, I did like that the team regularly post and interact with their audience and the engagement – though not outstanding – is still decent.
Facebook:
Now, with regards to Facebook, OriginTrail has a slightly smaller audience with 9,724 Likes, which is the tenth-highest for coins that actually have Facebook pages in previous reports. That said, its average engagement rate for the past 30 days was 0.19%, which is around twice that of the average across all industries of 0.09%. Again, it is clear to see the commitment to keeping the respective platform’s audience up-to-date with developments, as there were 8 posts in the past 30 days, which is more than the majority of coins tend to post to Facebook.
Discord:
The OriginTrail Discord group has 1,556 members.
The group itself is not particularly active with only a handful of messages posted to the General channel over the past week. It seems to be more focused on technical discussion between developers than for community engagement. That said, the team do respond to any user queries that do appear in the group swiftly. There is also an Updates and Announcements channel that contains development updates, posted every few days, with recent updates including the launch of a “Monthly Office Hours” AMA session with the founders and the release of v4.1.3 of the OriginTrail node client.
Telegram:
The OriginTrail Telegram group has 6,131 members.
The Telegram group is much more active than the Discord and clearly the community hub, with near-constant daily discussion present. The community seem very much a part of the ecosystem, as opposed to purely speculators, with many running nodes and thereby assisting in the utility of the network (as we shall come to in the Development sections). Queries are answered promptly and the group seem keen on making sure new users are assisted and brought into the fold, which is only positive for the sustained growth of the community. Overall, there is palpable excitement and clearly many here are actively involved in the ecosystem.
BitcoinTalk:
The OriginTrail BitcoinTalk thread was created on November 21st, 2017, and has since generated 421 posts spanning 22 pages in 935 days. This equates to 0.34 posts per day, on average. However, in the past 90 days, the thread has had 10 posts via 5 individual posters, giving an average of 0.11 posts per day. Overall, there has never been a great deal of engagement on this thread.
Regarding the announcement, it begins with a tagline of the “first purpose-built protocol for supply chains based on blockchain“, with an acknowledgement of it being the recipient of the 2017 Walmart Innovation Award. There are links provided to all the relevant resources and social platforms, including the whitepaper, roadmap, website and GitHub. Following this, we find a brief coin specification, detailing the fact that Trace is an ERC-20 token with a maximum supply of 500mn and that the public sale was for 250mn TRAC. There are some details on the token sale itself, too, which can be found in the metrics from the previous section of the report. Subsequently, there is a section titled Our Mission, which discusses the idea that transparency is critical to improvements in quality and safety of products and that the OriginTrail protocol will be used to enable “trustless sharing of data in supply chains“. Moreover, it is mentioned that OriginTrail has already had a product in the market for years prior to the integration of blockchain technology and that it has been recognised by Walmart, having won the 2017 Innovation Award.
We also find a brief overview of how the protocol works and what OriginTrail actually is. One key quote here that summarises this is that “OriginTrail enables seamless data sharing along any supply chain. The decentralized, blockchain-supported network protocol ensures trust, transparency, and security. It helps companies exchange relevant data seamlessly and in a secure way to build accountability, protect their brands and increase efficiencies. Token Generating Event will enable development of the OriginTrail Decentralized Network that will be scalable and applicable to any product supply chain.“
There is an introductory video provided here, also, along with a more detailed breakdown of how the protocol works, though we will come to this in the subsequent sections of this report. Moreover, there is an image of the roadmap, token distribution and information on the founders and advisors. The roadmap and team information will also be covered when we discuss Development.
And that concludes my evaluation of the OriginTrail community. Let’s take a look at its development:
Development:
For the following Development analysis, I will be evaluating project leadership, the website, the roadmap, the whitepaper, the wallets and finally providing a general overview:
Project Leadership:
On the website itself, the 3 founders are detailed, along with the 8 advisors. There are 15 employees currently listed on LinkedIn for OriginTrail and 12 employees listed for TraceLabs. Having conferred with the team, I found that there are currently 20 employees in total.
More specifically, Trace Labs – core OriginTrail developers leadership – is as follows:
- Jurij Skornik, General Manager
- Tomaz Levak, Founder & Managing Director
- Ziga Drev, Founder & Managing Director
- Branimir Rakic, Founder & Chief Technical Officer
- Djordje Kovacevic, Head of Engineering
All relevant fields are covered here and the team is clearly growing, as Trace Labs (the core developers of OriginTrail) are currently hiring 11 developers and engineers.
Website:
The OriginTrail website is very professional in its design, with modern UI/UX and a comprehensive, incredibly rich set of pages and sub-pages.
I will refrain from covering Technology here as the content overlaps with the Whitepaper section later on in this report.
The Trace Alliance section of the site details the consortium of members working on providing blockchain-based solutions for supply chains, with prominent members of the alliance including Aina Design, Gijima Logistics, SurfaceNet, Halal Trail, Journey Foods, Lightning Water, Deloitte, Datalab, Trust Provenance, Alba Logistics, Ecotrace, Northblock Group, AgImpact and Consol Freight. The alliance will provide access to academic research papers, knowledge resources, direct access to use cases and new releases of technologies and solutions.
Moving on to Case Studies, here we find brief overviews of current utility of the ODN, with prominent ones including the BSI-led Certification and Standards (more on this shortly). Other current case studies include organic farming, rail track materials and free-range poultry.
There is also a regularly updated blog, where monthly and quarterly development updates are published, along with one-off announcements, in order to keep the community well-informed. Among recent updates, I found that the British Standards Institution has recently released a whitepaper discussing the utility of the OriginTrail Decentralized Network within three of its solutions, with BSI exclusively partnered with Trace Labs. The BSI has 86,000 clients in over 190 countries (worldwide, in short) and these solutions will be available to their worldwide clients. These three solutions include a Supplier Compliance Audit Network (SCAN) Trusted Factory Blockchain Program for US importers to ensure authenticity of factory certifications and credentials. SCAN itself has combined annual sales of $$1.25trn worldwide. The solution provided will secure permissioned audit data and factory credentials on the ODN and make them accessible to SCAN members.
Another important recent update was the Q1 Report, in which the following useful takeaways were found:
- There was 10x more data on the ODN at the end of Q1 2020 than at the start of it.
- The number of TRAC being staked was ~7.5mn as of April, having grown from 5.5mn in August 2019.
- New jobs on the ODN increased by over 350 per month each month of Q1, with an average of 407 new jobs added per month.
- The Food Data Market was introduced to the public, which is an open-source software infrastructure.
- The Laboratory Data Market began to be developed to provide “trusted food provenance based on isotopic reference tests of food products“.
Overall, the website is very impressive, being well-designed, professional and highly-informative.
Roadmap:
The OriginTrail roadmap can be found here.
This may well be one of the best roadmaps I have ever seen, with further reading links provided for many of the goals, as well as GitHub links for specific releases and accompanying Medium articles. The roadmap is also comprehensive, beginning with the first working alpha of the product in 2013, prior to any blockchain implementations, with brief details provided for 2014, 2015 and 2016. In 2016, for example, we are told that over 20,000 unique shoppers were using the system and over 1200 raw material providers were tracked. Following this, blockchain technology begins to be conceptualised, developed and eventually integrated, with the roadmap getting progressively more detailed with each year.
I will refrain from covering the entire timeline of events here, instead focusing on current developments and future plans.
So, beginning with Q1 2020, OriginTrail completed development on the infrastructure of a Data Marketplace, with a Minimum Viable Product release of the Data Marketplace in the Laboratory Data Market. They also made improvements on their network layer and API and introduced KPIs for the OriginTrail Decentralized Network in their quarterly reports.
In Q2 2020, they have been working on the launch of the open knowledge repository campaign, along with the integration of Uniswap for nOS (the Network Operating System that is used for data exchange). They have also implemented new data privacy options and will be increased the node stake size to 3,000 TRAC, from its current 1,000 TRAC minimum.
In Q3 2020, the v2 OriginTrail explorer will be released, along with v2 liquidity provision for the Uniswap integration with nOS, plus the launch of a Community page and the establishment of the Trace Alliance governance structure. Further, there will be optimisations for node service compensation and the hardware requirements and blockchain usage for nodes, plus the release of a trusted oracle framework for permission systems on the OriginTrail Decentralized Network.
In Q4 2020, the Data Marketplace will have its mainnet release, along with the release of the v2 Whitepaper, plus a 2021 roadmap. Moreover, the Houston interface for nodes will be updated and the future development fund governance will be established.
Whitepaper:
The OriginTrail whitepaper can be found here. However, as it has not been updated since its initial release in October 2017, I will be covering the much more recent Vision Paper article released in March 2019.
The article begins by briefly discussing the history of business competition and its relationship with technology, highlighting four key shifts: the first was a shift towards efficiency, then effectiveness combined with efficiency, followed by speed combined with efficiency and effectiveness. The fourth shift, they believe, is the current shift, with organisations now having to adapt for “the optimum of the network within which it operates.” Herein lies the requirement for organisational inter-connectivity and data exchange.
Following this, we come to the three primary areas of concern for OriginTrail’s global growth, which are inclusiveness, neutrality and usability. Inclusiveness will involve the formation of partnerships with global leaders is technology and business, where OriginTrail is employed within their respective communities. Neutrality is based on the ecosystem remaining open-source and decentralised, with global standards maintained, allowing for data integrity and prevention of vendor lock-ins. It also includes working with potential competitors to ensure global adoption of solutions. Regarding usability, there must be a focus on user experience in order to restrict impediments and make adoption seamless, with cost-effective deployment of the solutions being built.
Subsequently, we find a brief overview of the current state of the industry, with one of the primary issues in data inter-connectivity being the administrative challenges of holding cryptocurrency and the high entry costs of current solutions, with many recent approaches focused on vendor lock-ins, which OriginTrail believe will lead to further silos of data.
Moving on, we are given some brief background information on the founders, including the fact that an alpha product was launched in 2013 for data exchange on supply chains for beef producers, long before any notions of implementing blockchain came about. As the years went on, the founders realised that the current centralised solutions were all lacking the basic transparency that allows for data integrity and trust between businesses, so blockchain technology appeared to fit the bill. However, they do acknowledge that early results produced mixed results, with issues cropping up for scalability and limited privacy. In 2017, however, the OriginTrail protocol was conceptualised, allowing for data scalability and inter-connectivity, with interoperability among legacy systems. As they state, “What used to be a centralised, proprietary, OriginTrail solution bringing transparency and integrity to supply chains, became a non-proprietary, royalty-free, and open source project that has gained traction”. The mainnet was then launched in December 2018.
The main focus here is that OriginTrail is not an organisation nor company but an ecosystem with open-source technology (the OriginTrail Decentralised Network).
We are given a list of current use-cases for these solutions, including verifying claims (provenance, certifications and authentication), public data-set integrity (for many industries, including energy, environmental data, smart cities and transport), privacy-by-design infrastructure (including compensation for sharing data and cryptographic proof data storage), zero knowledge data verification and big data modeling for machine learning.
Regarding use-cases, we are told that, up until the time of publication of the Vision Paper, OriginTrail had been focused on food supply chains, with these communities becoming the first to utilise the ODN (OriginTrail Decentralised Network). More communities from other industries are now also utilising the technology, including the Trace Alliance Hub of Solution Providers, the open data community, logistics and transportation, academia and government and public institutions.
As such, with the growing number of wide-spread communities, Trace Labs was founded as the core development team behind OriginTrail, committed to integrating the ODN where it can assist in solving supply chain challenges. Moreover, Trace Labs launched the Network Operating System (nOS) to allow for faster development and a better user experience when interacting with the ODN. Most significantly, nOS reduces the time of deployment for company nodes from several days to a couple of minutes. Entire solutions for supply chain mapping and data exchange can be deployment 10 times faster than would be possible without nOS.
Following this, we are given an overview of the ecosystem, which comprises OriginTrail, Trace Alliance and Trace Labs. Trace Alliance (being the only component not yet covered) is a partnership consortium and knowledge hub containing 85 members at the time of publication.
We also find a detailed section on the token utility of TRAC, which is vital to the ecosystem. Why is TRAC vital? Well, it fulfils a number of needs including:
- Partaking in the ecosystem: In order to provide for reliable network operation, each participant node in the network posts an amount of initial stake (currently at 1000 TRAC) to join and register to the network.
- Publishing data to the decentralized network with a specific data life-span and characteristics required for the Data Holder nodes (the ones providing the service for the agreements) to be compensated for their activities.
- The agreement participants collateralize their stake in TRAC to ensure that the outcome of each agreement is in line with the desires of network participants.
- Finally, the ability to tokenize and get compensated for the data provided on request, enabling the ecosystem to evolve its data marketplace.
Most importantly, the token economics are designed so that the utility of TRAC is directly correlated to the utility of the ODN.
To summarise the token utility, we are told to think of it as a triple effect, whereby the publication of data to the ODN creates demand for TRAC that compensated nodes for holding that data, with equal demand being created for TRAC as the collateral placed for that specific ‘job’. Lastly, the locking of collateral reduces circulating token supply.
To streamline the process for clients, Trace Labs have integrated Bittrex into nOS to seamlessly obtain TRAC, reducing friction for enterprises.
In conclusion, we find an outline of the roadmap, though this has been covered already in this report.
Wallets
As TRAC is an ERC-20 token, it can be stored on a plethora of wallets, including hardware wallets such as those built by Ledger and Trezor, as well as web wallets and desktop wallets.
And that concludes my fundamental analysis of OriginTrail.
Technical Analysis
TRAC/BTC
Weekly
Daily
As we can see from the weekly chart for TRAC/BTC above, price rallied hard the first week of its listing on exchanges, rallying from 1200 satoshis to over 4000 satoshis, with the subsequent week falling just shy of 4100 satoshis. Price then dropped off for consecutive weeks, finding a new bottom at 1378 satoshis in March 2018, before rallying again through April to a new all-time high at 4097 satoshis. Subsequently, TRAC experienced a protracted bear cycle, falling through support at 1200 satoshis in July 2018. It wasn’t until September 2018 that a new bottom was found at 430 satoshis, where price formed a tight range for months, before rallying into 1200 satoshis in April 2019 but failing to break the prior support turned resistance. As you can see, price has since been bleeding and consolidation, with a new all-time low forming at 90 satoshis in November 2019.
If we turn to the daily chart for more clarity on this more recent price-action, we can see that price rejected at the 360DMA back in April 2019 despite significant volume coming in, with price losing the 430 satoshi floor in May. Price then bled out for months, finding its all-time low late in 2019 and forming a new range between 90-170 satoshis for 247 days. Plenty of volume was traded throughout this range, which was clearly the accumulation range. Price then broke out above both range resistance and the 360DMA in late April 2020, with price rallying hard since, now finding resistance at 750 satoshis. The breakout and subsequent rally has been occurring on historically significant, rising volume, confirming its validity. Quite evidently, price began a new bull cycle back in April, following a depression or accumulation range of 8 months. Price entered disbelief when it overcame the 360DMA and has since been on a tear. The question now is whether this is in fact euphoria coming in here or whether a much larger cycle is in play. My honest opinion is that this is not euphoria by any stretch of the imagination, as there has been no distribution by large holders up here and volume has not begun to divert from price yet (rising prices, falling volume). I do think we will see some consolidation below 750 satoshis and perhaps even a retest of 430 satoshis to really shake out holders, but I expect that 1120 satoshi high to be taken out in the coming months.
I will certainly be a buyer if we do retest 430 satoshis but I am definitely not going to be entering here following such a violent rally and in the middle of a cycle.
Conclusion
This report is now approaching 6,000 words, and it is time to draw it to a close.
My final grading for OriginTrail is 7 out of 10.*
*OriginTrail would get an 8 were it not for its current price, which is unattractive for speculators. The development aspects in particular are top-tier, in my opinion, and were this a report on the development quality of the project, it would be a 9.
Here, you can find my grading framework, for reference.
Lastly, here is a link to a Google Sheets file with any significant data from previous reports compiled for cross-comparative purposes. I will keep this updated as I continue to write these reports.
I hope this report has proved insightful and that you’ve enjoyed the read! Please do feel free to leave any questions in the Comments, and I’ll answer them as best I can.
