N.B: In the spirit of full transparency, the following Coin Report update on LCX is a Sponsored Post.
Welcome to the 66th Coin Report. In today’s report, I will be assessing the fundamental and technical strengths and weaknesses of LCX. This will be comprised of an analysis of a number of significant metrics, an evaluation of the project’s community and development and an overview of its price-history. The report will conclude with a grading out of 10. I hope you enjoy the read!
For those that missed the first report on LCX, you can find it here. I published that first report half a year ago, and subsequently liaised with the team to have an updated report published this month. Given that the previous report was published in April, there has been a great deal of development since. As one would expect, there are also aspects that remain unchanged (but are critical to understanding the project); thus, to render this report viable as a stand-alone, there will be some overlap from the previous report. That said, there is plenty to be revisited (including much new ground to cover) and I am intrigued to see how the project has fared over the past six months. In particular, Metric Analysis, the Community sections and Technical Analysis have been updated in their entirety. Moreover, for this report, I will focus on a plethora of recent blog posts that detail developmental progress in the Development section, allowing for greater focus on new releases and growth. Conversely, some of the sections within Development have remained on-the-whole identical, due to the unchanged nature of certain documents and resources. I have copied these in to allow for the report to be a one-stop resource – thus, it will run on a little longer than normal.
I hope this report will prove objective where it must be and fair on more subjective matters. For those who’d like to learn a little more about LCX prior to reading this report, here are some primary links:
Name: LCX (Liechtenstein Cryptoassets Exchange)
Algorithm: N/A (ERC-20)
Sector: Financial Services
Exchanges: Bilaxy, BitUBU, Uniswap, Liquid, IDEX, HitBTC, VinDAX, Bidesk, FatBTC and ProBit.
LCX, or Liechtenstein Cryptoassets Exchange, was initially conceptualised by entrepreneur Monty Metzger in November 2017, as a comprehensive financial services platform for professional investors in crypto. Utilising private equity for early stage development, they officially launched their LCX Terminal in June 2019, allowing for cross-exchange portfolio and trade management within a single user interface.
Following this, in September 2019, they conducted an IEO on Liquid, a cryptocurrency exchange, offering 100,000,000 LCX – the native token to the LCX ecosystem – at $0.06 apiece. The IEO did not fully sell out and all unsold tokens were burned in December 2019, though there are no publicly available details on the specifics of the IEO due to confidentiality agreements between Liquid and LCX; the December 2019 token burn is public, however, at ~42mn LCX, inclusive of LCX burned from fees generated by the platform. The LCX token itself was created on the ERC-20 standard and is limited to the 956,682,375 LCX currently in existence, with this supply only to decrease over time. Within the LCX ecosystem, these tokens have a guaranteed utility value of $0.10.
The distribution of the total supply is as follows, as of April 2nd, 2020: 10.5% in the Company Reserve; 16.7% allocated to the team; 11% reserved for development; 4.6% for the ecosystem requirements; 8.4% for future release; and 48.8% circulating in public.
LCX has now been trading for a little over a year and during that time there has been one distinct bull cycle that has played out. Whilst I will cover the available price-history at length later in the report, for now it will suffice to say that LCX formed its all-time low at 1 satoshi as initial trading began in December 2019, with its all-time high at 305 satoshis in May 2020. Against the Dollar, however, its all-time high formed in August at $0.0325.
Regarding the project itself, its aims are quite straightforward, with the primary value proposition being a comprehensive financial services platform within the cryptosphere.
As stated in the Vision Paper:
“LCX’s goal is to become one of the world’s first licensed and supervised security token exchanges as a regulated marketplace for digital assets.
LCX wants to provide the key infrastructure for the new market of digital assets and the token economy.
LCX will foster the adoption of crypto by helping financial institutions and professional investors understand the potential blockchain holds to ignite global economic reform and financial inclusion.”
The below product overview has been provided by the team:
LCX is a DeFi company that focuses on tokenization of assets, security token offerings and advanced trading tools. LCX, the Liechtenstein Cryptoassets Exchange, is based in Liechtenstein and operates in accordance with the Token and Trusted Technology Service Provider Act (TVTG) also known as the new Liechtenstein blockchain laws.
LCX STO Launchpad provides a one-stop tokenization platform to automate the fundraising and investor management on the blockchain.
LCX Terminal brings together real-time and full historical data on all cryptocurrency markets, news, social analytics, and trading signals, powerful analytics, smart order routing, and trading execution capabilities — all on one solution.
LCX DeFi Terminal LCX has recently launched a decentralized trading platform built on Uniswap with trading view integration, incl. DeFi indicators such as liquidity and volume.
LCX DeFi Protocol: LCX has launched a second layer protocol which is enabling limit orders on Uniswap DEX. Total Value Locked (TVL) of LCX DeFi Terminal is tracked on Defipulse. https://www.lcx.com/project-fire-salamander/ and https://defi.LCX.com
LCX Price Oracles with Bitcoin Reference Prices and Ethereum Reference Price. See Methodology report. https://www.lcx.com/Cryptocurrency-Reference-Price-Services/
LCX Token (LCX) is a utility Token which may be used to pay all fees associated with the services offered by LCX AG. The LCX Token can be used as a voucher to pay fees, such as fees for LCX Terminal subscription; fees for custodian solutions LCX Vault; fees for exchange transactions for all crypto assets; exchange fees for exchange transactions; processing fees; and other fees within the LCX ecosystem.
Let’s begin our evaluation with some Metric Analysis:
Below are listed a number of important metrics, all of which are accurate as of 27th October 2020. For anyone reading this who has yet to read a Coin Report, it might be worth reading this section of the first report, where any potentially unfamiliar terms are explained. For any terms or metrics specific to this post, I will provide explanations besides the figures.
Price: $0.0128 (94 satoshis)
Circulating Supply: 549,451,813 LCX
Total Supply: 953,165,775 LCX
Maximum Supply: 953,165,775 LCX (decrease of ~3mn LCX since April 2020 due to token burns)
% of Max. Supply Minted: 100%
Network Value: $7,040,203 (516.48 BTC)
Network Value at Max. Supply: $12.213mn
Exchange Volume: $506,247 ($213,566 excluding wash)
Exchange Volume-to-Network Value: 3.03% excluding wash
Average Price (30-Day): $0.0137
Average Exchange Volume (30-Day): $1,847,494 ($779,217 excluding wash)
Average Network Value (30-Day): $7,470,531
Average Exchange Volume (30-Day)-to-Network Value: 10.43% excluding wash
Volatility* (30-Day): -0.0301
Average Daily On-Chain Transactions (30-Day): N/A
Average Daily Transactional Value** (30-Day): N/A
NVT*** (30-Day): N/A
% Price Change USD (30-Day): -2%
% Price Change USD (1-Year): N/A
USD All-Time High: $0.032
% From USD All-Time High: -59.4%
Premine % of Max. Supply: 0
Premine Location: N/A
Liquidity (calculated as the sum of BTC in the buy-side with 10% of current price across all exchanges): 1.793 BTC ($99k liquidity on Uniswap, also)
Liquidity-to-Network Value %: 0.35%
Supply Available on Exchanges: 17,483,410 LCX
% of Circulating Supply Available on Exchanges: 3.18%
*Volatility is calculated by taking the average price over the given time-period, calculating the difference between it and the highest price and it and the lowest price over that same time-period, and multiplying those figures together. The closer to 0, the less volatility during that period, and vice-versa. Read this for more on volatility.
Supply Emission & Inflation:
Block Reward Schedule: N/A
Average Block Time: N/A
Current Block Height: N/A
Annual Supply Emission: 0
Annual Inflation Rate: 0%
Circulating Supply in 365 Days: N/A
IEO Period: September 13th to September 23rd 2019
Total Tokens: 1,000,000,000 LCX
Total Tokens Available for Sale: 100,000,000 LCX
Total Raised: ~$3,480,000 (assumption, based on below details)
Average ICO Price Per Token: $0.06
Total Tokens Sold: ~58,000,000 LCX (~42,000,000 LCX burned post-IEO)
Further Details: No further details publicly available due to NDAs between Liquid and LCX
Address Count: 3,057
Total Supply Held By Top 10 Addresses: 36.39%*
Total Supply Held By Top 20 Addresses: 44.32%*
Total Supply Held By Top 100 Addresses: 61.53%*
Inactive Address Count in Top 20 (30 Days of No Activity): 14*
*Excluding addresses #1 and #2, which are locked, and exchange addresses within the respective address counts. Including subsequent privately-owned addresses.
Just like in the original report, there is a fair amount to work through here, so I’ll refrain from any preamble.
I’d like to begin by taking a look at the General metrics, followed by (the lack of) Supply Emission and concluding with some Distribution analysis:
Firstly, in stark contrast to April 2020, LCX’s Volatility was found to be -0.0301 for the past 30 days, as opposed to -0.2785; where LCX was 4th-highest for this metric in that original report, it is now joint 9th-lowest among prior reports. This indicates to me that LCX has transitioned from the midst of a bull cycle to a consolidation phase against the Dollar that may well be preceding its next cycle. We will look more closely at this later in the report.
Next up, we have the metrics relating to Liquidity:
Firstly, I found that there was 1.793 BTC of buy-side liquidity (up from 0.65 BTC in April 2020). within 10% of current prices to be found across all exchanges, equating to 0.35% of its Network Value (down from 0.53%). This is not particularly strong nor indicative of any significant demand on centralised exchanges at current prices, placing LCX in the bottom quarter from prior reports. There is, however, ~$99k of liquidity available on Uniswap.
As for sell-side liquidity, I found that ~17,483,410 LCX (a decrease of ~11.3mn LCX from April) was available for purchase in the orderbooks, equating to 3.18% of the circulating supply. The supply available for purchase on exchanges has declined by over half relative to circulating supply since April, which suggests more LCX holders are storing off-exchange and are less interested in selling.
Moving onto volume, LCX is reported to have traded $506,246 of Exchange Volume over the past 24 hours, equating to 7.19% of its Network Value. Unfortunately, much of this is wash trading (though this is no fault of the project, but rather the exchanges), and I found that a more accurate figure is $213,566, equating to a still-impressive 3.03% of Network Value. Further, Average Exchange Volume (accounting for wash) was $779,217 for the past 30 days, equating to 10.43% of LCX Average Network Value for the same period. This is very impressive and in direct contrast to the liquidity metrics above, as relates to indicators for speculative interest. It is also both nominally and relatively significantly higher than in April 2020; likely a symptom of the increased exchange exposure. This is the 10th-highest figure recorded in these reports.
Now, let’s take a look at (the lack of) Supply Emission:
Given that LCX was created in a token generation event in March 2019, its maximum supply was created in totality in that instance. Thus, annual inflation is 0%. Further, in practice, there is engineered deflationary pressure, as LCX have committed to burning 100% of their platform fees in LCX on a quarterly basis (having completed four token burns so far with a total of ~46.8mn LCX burned). As such, there should be no real headwinds to price growth, as there is no supply emission to be dumped at market. If anything, we would expect tailwinds based on the growth of the platform and thus the growth of the token burn rate.
Finally, let us take a look at some Distribution:
Using the rich-list, I found that there are currently 3,057 holders of LCX(+1,871 since April).
Further, I found that the top 10 richest addresses control 36.39% of the total supply; the top 20 control 44.32%; and the top 100 control 61.53%. However, it must be noted that the 1st and 2nd-richest addresses are locked and hold 180mn LCX between them, with a vesting period of 3 years. As such, these addresses have been excluded from the above calculations. Further, #9 and #13 are IDEX and LCX, so these have been excluded also. Instead, I have included the subsequent privately-held addresses that make up the top 10, top 20 and top 100. However, if we do include the above addresses, the top 10 control 52.81% of the total supply; the top 20 control 63.5%; and the top 100 control 84%.
Of the top 20 privately-held addresses, 14 were inactive over the past 30 days, with 4 addresses in accumulation and 2 in distribution. Net inflows into the top 20 over this period equate to 9,774,763 LCX (1.02% of the total supply).
And that concludes this section. Onto the LCX Community:
There are two primary aspects of community analysis: social media presence and Bitcointalk threads. I’ll begin with the former before moving on to the latter.
Concerning social media presence, there are four main platforms to examine: Twitter, Facebook, Telegram and Discord.
LCX is present on all platforms except Discord. To begin, let’s look at the various social metrics that I calculated from the LCX Twitter and Facebook accounts:
Twitter Followers: 15,350 (+8,106 on April 2020)
Tweets: 1,049 (+580 on April 2020)
Average Twitter Engagement: 0.4% (-0.32% on April 2020)
Facebook Likes: 631 (+115 on April 2020)
Facebook Posts (30-Day): 3
Average Facebook Engagement: 1.37% (+0.13% on April 2020)
As usual, I will be using RivalIQ‘s social benchmark report for evaluation purposes.
The LCX Twitter account has grown significantly (more than doubling, in fact) to a mid-sized audience at 15,350 followers, but its engagement does let it down a little, with a 30-day average engagement rate of 0.4%. Engagement has almost halved since the original post in April, which, when one considers the growth in audience, suggests that nominal engagements per post have increased slightly. In RivalIQ’s report, we find that the average Twitter engagement rate across all industries is 0.045%, which means that LCX’s engagement rate is currently 8.88x greater. Further, the average engagement rate for the Tech and Software industry (the most relevant in the report) is 0.027%, thus LCX’s is 14.8x greater. Relative to other coins, LCX’s engagement is in the bottom third of previous reports.
Now, with regards to Facebook, LCX has again grown its audience but by significantly less, with only an increase of around 22%. That said, its average engagement rate for the past 30 days was 1.37%, which is actually higher than in the April report – this is a positive sign. Their engagement rate is 15.2x greater than the average across all industries of 0.09% and 68.5x greater than the average of the Tech and Software industry (0.02%). Having said that, we must remember that the audience size on this platform is very small, which naturally drives higher relative engagement.
There is no Discord group for LCX.
There are 7,731 members of the LCX Telegram group. This is an increase of +396 members since April 2020.
Below are my takeaways from the recent activity in the group:
- This is the primary community hub, and there is some degree of daily discussion, though by no means constant nor to the level seen in other similarly-sized Telegram groups.
- The community seem close-knit, engaging in a wide array of topics, not just specific to LCX.
- The team and admins are active in the group and answer questions and support queries promptly.
- The community are impressed with the DeFi Terminal. This allows for the placing of limit orders for Uniswap, with $40,000-worth of order value placed as of 21st October 2020 (more on this a little later).
- Recently, the team announced security tokenisation of Roe V. Wade – a new film expected for release in 2021; users will be able to share in the film’s profits by purchasing the RVW token. This STO will be tradeable upon launch of the STO exchange on LCX.
Overall, the community remain excited about the future of LCX, and, more importantly, given the recent releases this has become a community of users as opposed to simply speculators. I expect this trend to continue as more features are built and released, and I will of course be covering the recent developments in much more detail in the Development section.
The LCX BitcoinTalk thread was created on September 9th, 2019, and has since generated 5 posts spanning 1 page since inception.
The thread itself is now unused, but the announcement provides a general overview of the project. There are brief updates on LCX joining the World Economic Forum and Global Digital Finance, but beyond this there is little information provided. We do get an introduction to the LCX Terminal, which is the first tool of the platform, allowing for cross-exchange trade and portfolio management.
Before I wrap up this section, I’d like to also briefly mention that LCX are still active on LinkedIn, given the more professional target market, with regular, detailed updates posted there to their 3,035 followers (+156 since April 2020). Moreover, unlike many cryptocurrency projects, I found that they also have a fairly active YouTube channel, which also has ~2,920 subscribers (+120 since April 2020), with videos posted every fortnight or so.
And that concludes my evaluation of the LCX community. Onto recent developments:
For the following Development analysis, I will be evaluating project leadership, the website, the roadmap, the whitepaper, the wallets and finally providing a general overview:
LCX was founded by Monty Metzger, an entrepreneur who began in tech in 1998, having successfully exited several companies during that time, becoming an angel investor via Metzger Capital AG following these. Moreover, Monty ran a regulated VC Fund as General Partner – Digital Leaders Ventures – which made investments in PayKey, Aircall and VOIQ between 2014-2018.
There are four core team members listed on the website, including Amanjot Malhotra (Director of Product Development), Anurag Verma (Lead Engineer) and Katarina Metzger (Member of the Board).
On LinkedIn, there are 13 listed employees (+1 since April 2020). The team are currently hiring for 6 positions.
More specifically, their management team is comprised of:
- Monty Metzger, CEO
- Katarina Metzger, Board Member
- Amanjot Malhotra, Director of Product Management
- Anurag Verma, Lead Engineer
And their advisory board comprises:
- Don Tapscott, Co-Founder of Blockchain Research Institute
- Jimmy Wales, Founder of Wikipedia
- Yat Siu, Founder of Outblaze and Animoca
- Frank Gessner, Chairman at Invao Group
- Miko Matsumura, General Partner at Gumi Ventures
- David Mikkelsen Troensegaard, Co-Founder of Refunite
- Plamen Russev, Founder of Webit Foundation
Rather than run over the project website, as I do for most reports, due to the nature of LCX I wanted to take this section to discuss the LCX Terminal itself, since it is the core component of the LCX ecosystem and the user interface from which most tools are accessed.
Firstly, there are both free and paid plans available, with the primary difference between the two being that free plans allow for 3 exchange connections and paid for 15 connections for $290 per month (paid in LCX – currently priced at 2900 LCX due to minimum guaranteed value, thus costing ~$33 a month at present)). There are 16 different exchanges that can be connected to your account, including:
- Coinbase Pro
- Huobi Global
The UI is sleek and functions well, with a general dashboard available with personalised watchlists, as well as exchange-specific dashboards displaying portfolios. Users are able to seamlessly switch between exchanges in order to place orders and trade. Orderbooks are clean and customisable and markets have TradingView charting integrated. Beyond this, the side panel allows users to access the Smart Order functionality, news integrations collated from numerous sources, profit/loss reports and general market data. The LCX Smart Order system automates order execution at the best possible price, comparing prices across multiple exchanges.
Currently, there are 16 connected exchanges, 5249 trading pairs and over 50,000 traders registered to the platform. Moreover, average daily trading volume is above $250,000.
In the final sub-section, I will delve more deeply into recent updates to the platform and features released by LCX.
There is no new roadmap since the April report, thus I have provided my thoughts on that roadmap below:
The roadmap can be found on page 28 of the Vision Paper, accurate as of October 2019. It is quite brief and there are no further reading links provided on any of the goals; however, it is quite clear that this is not intended to be specific and detailed but rather to provide an overview of the intended direction of LCX.
It is presented in chronological format, beginning with the conceptualisation of LCX in 2017, followed by the incorporation of LCX AG in 2018 and the launch of the LCX Terminal in June 2019.
Subsequent to this, we have a little more detail on future ambitions, beginning in 2020 with Growth via Tokenization, which is inclusive of the launch of STO Launchpad (for security tokens), LCX Exchange and AI-based tools for compliance. In 2021, the focus will be on Digital Assets, with the launch of the LCX Vault (a custodian service). Following this, in 2022, LCX will be focusing on Artificial Intelligence and Big Data; and in 2023, there will be expansion of the Digital Assets platform; in 2024, they are expecting a period of Growth via Digital Excellence; and by 2025, LCX expect to have billions in assets under management, with 70% of this expected to be crypto and 30% fiat.
The whitepaper has not been updated since the April report and thus I have provided my original key takeaways below:
The LCX Vision Paper is a 33-page document that covers a great deal of information, including a history of the space they are operating in and where they believe they fit. For our purposes, I will not be covering the history, instead opting to dive right into LCX itself, beginning at page 15 of the document: LCX – A New Kind of Global Financial Technology Company.
Here, we are given an introduction to LCX itself, which is described as a “new blockchain ecosystem”, the first product of which is the LCX Terminal – effectively, an advanced trading desk allowing for an all-in-one user experience. Following this, we are given LCX’s philosophy, which is built on security, transparency and value.
The products and services that will be offered by LCX include the Terminal (trading desk), the Exchange (regulated marketplace for cryptoassets and security tokens), LCX Assets (tokenised platform), the LCX Vault (institutional custodian), LCX Protocol (decentralised compliance protocol) and the LCX Bank (application for a full bank license will be required here, with the long-term vision being blockchain bank for corporate clients).
As we come to LCX Partnerships, we find partnerships with the World Economic Forum, where LCX is a member of the Centre for the Fourth Industrial Revolution; Ledger; Blockchain Research Institute; Global Digital Finance; Security Token Alliance; and Liquid. LCX also have more recent partnerships with Animoca Brands, BioID, ChainLink, Elliptic, Icon Foundation, LunarCRUSH, Pliance, Regula and ZenGo.
We also find information on the management and advisory board, which I have already covered.
Overall, the document is concise and informative.
Given the significant development over recent months (much of which will be covered in its own section below), I believe it would be invaluable to have an updated paper published for the community.
As LCX is an ERC-20 token, it can be stored on all manner of wallets, including hardware devices, such as those of Ledger and Trezor, as well as web wallets and local clients.
Since April 2020, there have been a number of significant updates and releases from LCX, and I figured that the best way to highlight these is to scour over the many detailed blog posts published in the preceding six months and provide the key takeaways.
- Prior to Q2, in February 2020, LCX applied for its licence with the FMA in Liechtenstein, in line with the Liechtenstein Blockchain Act. Since, LCX has applied for 8 blockchain licences, including Trusted Technology Exchange Service Provider; Trusted Technology Token Depository; Trusted Technology Key Depository; Trusted Technology Price Service Provider; Trusted Technology Identity Service Provider; Physical Validator; Token Generator; and Token Issuer licenses. They remain awaiting the regulator adding LCX to the official registry.
- In Q2 2020, LCX generated revenues on the platform of 1,411,400 LCX, up 43% from Q1 and higher than expected growth. At this point, the user-base had grown to over 58,000 traders, up 364% from Q1 2020.
- LCX’s most used features were the Smart Order and Markets page.
- The platform improved exchange connectivity to 16 exchanges by integrating CEX.io.
- LCX launched as a TT Price Service Provider in accordance with Liechtenstein Blockchain Laws, manifesting in growth of traffic to LCX Reference Price Services.
- The LCX token was listed on BitUBU, Coinsbit, Bidesk, HitBTC and Uniswap.
- The team published a Certificate of Asset Protection, confirming a lockup of the Company Reserve until June 2023.
- The LCX STO Launchpad was announced as a fully comprehensive security token platform, ensuring compliance and seamless STO solutions. The team have signed two STO projects valued at “double-digit million USD” and state that the pipeline of STOs is over $100mn in cumulative value.
- LCX partnered with ICON Foundation, System9, International Token Standardization Association, ZenGo and LunarCRUSH.
- LCX’s user-base is spread across 166 countries, with 22% of all users being daily active users and ~10% fully verified.
- LCX announced further details on their LCX Vault, including features such as the 8 eyes authentication principle, 24/7 guards, bank-grade physical security; concrete-reinforced blast doors, split key storage, legal certainty and investor protection. This all comprises LCX’s cold storage solution for cryptoassets within the Principality of Liechtenstein. It is expected to be available to users either in late 2020 or early 2021.
- The team conducted a token burn – as per their guarantee of burning 100% of all LCX used to pay for platform fees – of 1,411,400 LCX in Q2. The cumulative total token burn is 44,729,025 LCX.
- LCX announced the launch of Project Fire Salamander – a smart DeFi Terminal. The LCX DeFi Terminal is a platform built on top of Uniswap as a second-layer protocol, allowing for limit orders to be placed on the Uniswap DEX (where currently only market orders can be placed). There are no further requirements here beyond the regular usage of Uniswap.
- Fire Salamander also contains a DeFi dashboard to display user assets and liquidity pools, denominated in USD in real-time.
- In order to use the DeFi Terminal, users will need to hold a licence on their accounts. One licence is priced at 10,000 LCX, deposited and held on the connected wallet.
- In Q3 2020, the LCX Terminal doubled its usage to an average of 88 transactions per active user per month.
- Social Signals was launched, providing social media analytics within the terminal.
- LCX became a node operator on Chainlink with a strategic partnership, publishing reference prices as an official data provider.
- LCX partnered with Regular Forensics for document authentication within the STO Launchpad’s compliance suite. The team also partnered with Elliptic and Pliance to improve AML practices, as well as BioID for identity proofing.
- According to LCX CEO, Monty Metzger, the business has now developed beyond its product validation phase into a scaling phase.
- In Q3 2020, LCX announced revenues of 2,105,200 LCX, all of which was burned on October 6th, 2020. The cumulative historical token burn is now 46,834,225 LCX.
- Most recently, LCX announced that the producers of Roe V. Wade (starring John Voight and Stacey Dash) have chosen LCX for their STO issuance. RVW will be launched as a security token allowing investors a share in the profits of the films. The offering is expected to begin in November 2020. Funds raised from the issuance will be used towards film distribution and marketing. LCX will receive a performance fee and charge an agio of 3% payable in LCX or ETH for every token purchase transaction.
In conclusion of this sub-section (and thus my fundamental analysis of LCX), the trajectory of the business is plain for all to see, in my opinion, with the team having made great strides over the past six months towards positioning LCX as a market leader in crypto financial services.
As we can see from the above charts, LCX has been trading for just under a year now and has played out what appears to be a full bull cycle, although – unlike many low-caps – its price-action is quite unusual.
If we look at LCX/BTC, here we can see that price traded at all-time lows immediately after trading began at 1 satoshi, ranging between that level and 9 satoshis for several months before breaking out in February 2020 and creating a new range between 9 satoshis as support and 28 satoshis as resistance. In April, price broke out of this second range and began its bull cycle, rallying for months, hitting the all-time high at 305 satoshis on an anomaly spike in early May but then closing the day back below 100 satoshis. From that point, we can see a steady climb through Q2 towards resistance at 235 satoshis, followed by a dip into a new support base between 88 and 95 satoshis. This support held through late June and early July and led to another rally to a final high at 277 satoshis in August, from which price has slowly returned back to the support base from Q2 around 90 satoshis. Moreover, price has formed a range since September between this support and resistance at 156 satoshis, though for the bulk of that time it held onto its 200dMA. More recently, price has lost this MA and is pushing against support.
I am in two minds here, as invalidation is very clear at 88 satoshis, a daily close below which would spell short-term trouble for price, with the next major support back at ~30 satoshis. As such, one could conceivably enter a position here with a tight stop on a daily close below this support. The other approach is to wait out the next couple of weeks to see if this range continues to hold even if BTC/USD continues higher. If the support holds, I’d be very keen to enter a new position at that point. Alternatively, risk-averse speculators can wait for either a breakdown and thus a re-accumulation opportunity at 30 satoshis (one that I would relish highly) or for price to break back above 156 satoshis and sustain above it, thus indicating a reversal back to all-time highs is likely underway.
Either way, at the moment I am being patient, but ultimately I do want to be involved for LCX’s future.
And that conclude my evaluation of LCX.
This report is now over 5,000 words, and it is time to draw it to a close.
My final grading for LCX is 8 out of 10.*
*LCX is very, very close to being rated a 9. Some improvements in the liquidity of the LCX token (a symptom of greater exchange exposure), improved growth in the community and its engagement, along with sustained growth of the LCX Terminal and accompanying recent releases into 2021 and I will certainly be revisiting this grading. A more granular grading would see it at an 8.7 at present, relative to the 8 or 8.1 it was at six months ago.
Here, you can find my grading framework, for reference.
Lastly, here is a link to a Google Sheets file with any significant data from previous reports compiled for cross-comparative purposes. I will keep this updated as I continue to write these reports.
I hope this report has proved insightful and that you’ve enjoyed the read! Please do feel free to leave any questions in the Comments, and I’ll answer them as best I can.