Welcome to the 63rd Coin Report. In today’s report, I will be assessing the fundamental and technical strengths and weaknesses of Komodo. This will be comprised of an analysis of a number of significant metrics, an evaluation of the project’s community and development and an overview of its price-history. The report will conclude with a grading out of 10. I hope you enjoy the read!
As many regular readers will know, I have been a fan of Komodo for some time now and this will be one of the few reports published where I feel that I have somewhat of an understanding of the project prior to conducting any research. In fact, anyone who reads my Market Outlooks will know that I have been buying KMD below 6,500 satoshis for some time now, whilst price has been range-bound for the best part of the past year. Nonetheless, Komodo is multi-faceted, and I was sure there was plenty that I did not know about it, which indeed was the case. I believe this will be quite the eye-opening Coin Report.
I hope this report will prove objective where it must be and fair on more subjective matters. For those who’d like to learn a little more about Komodo prior to reading this report, here are some primary links:
Algorithm: Equihash (delayed Proof-of-Work)
Sector: Public Multi-Chain Platform
Exchanges: Binance, Bittrex, CoinEx, HitBTC, Upbit, Huobi Global, Bitvavo, CoinDCX, Livecoin, Liquid, Graviex, Crex24, Bitbns, Bilaxy, VCC Exchange and Citex
Komodo was launched officially on September 13th, 2016, with the creation of the genesis block post-conceptualization throughout Q2 and Q3 2016. The project was launched by James Lee as a solution for interoperability and atomic swaps, as discussed in his Blockchain Declaration of Independence. Komodo raised early funding with an ICO in October 2015, where ~20,000,000 KMD were sold of an initial 100,000,000 KMD issuance, with 70,000,000 KMD swapped to BitcoinDark holders. The remaining 10,000,000 KMD were allocated to Komodo’s development and marketing. The token sale allocation raised 2,639 BTC, equating to $1,929,188.
Komodo itself operates using delayed Proof-of-Work consensus on the Equihash hashing algorithm, with 3 KMD block rewards and 1-minute block times, until the maximum supply of 200,000,000 KMD is reached.
Komodo has now been in existence for four years, with the earliest available price-history dating back to January 2017. Given this, there is plenty of price data to work with and there have been several distinct market cycles over that period. Whilst we will discuss this at length in the Technical Analysis section, for now it will suffice to say that KMD formed its all-time low against the Dollar in Q1 2017 on a flash-crash, where it hit $0.009. It formed its all-time high at $14.16 in December 2017. Against Bitcoin, its all-time low formed at 750 satoshis, whilst its all-time high formed in June 2017 at 102,430 satoshis.
Whilst the Komodo ecosystem is multi-faceted and somewhat complex, the purpose remains to provide scalable blockchain solutions with its fully customisable framework.
As stated on the Komodo website:
“Komodo is an open, composable multi-chain platform. With blockchain development roots going back to 2014, Komodo is consistently recognized as a pioneer of multi-chain architecture in the blockchain space.
Today, Komodo focuses on providing business-friendly blockchain solutions that are secure, scalable, interoperable, and adaptable. Komodo’s current technology suite, the Antara framework, offers tools for end-to-end blockchain development, including a customizable, application-specific Smart Chain complete with a library of built-in modules and an open API for building blockchain-based applications.”
Let’s begin with some Metric Analysis:
Below are listed a number of important metrics, all of which are accurate as of 18th September 2020. For anyone reading this who has yet to read a Coin Report, it might be worth reading this section of the first report, where any potentially unfamiliar terms are explained. For any terms or metrics specific to this post, I will provide explanations besides the figures.
Price: $0.611 (5,600 satoshis)
Circulating Supply: 121,810,045 KMD
Total Supply: 121,810,045 KMD
Maximum Supply: 200,000,000 KMD
% of Max. Supply Minted: 60.91%
Network Value: $74,497,100 (6,821.36 BTC)
Network Value at Max. Supply: $122,315,200
Exchange Volume: $2,975,227 ($1,255,067 excluding wash)
Exchange Volume-to-Network Value: 3.99% (1.68% excluding wash)
Average Price (30-Day): $0.726
Average Exchange Volume (30-Day): $2,559,834 (excluding wash)
Average Network Value (30-Day): $88,314,900
Average Exchange Volume (30-Day)-to-Network Value: 2.9%
Volatility* (30-Day): -0.0663
Average Daily On-Chain Transactions (30-Day): 10,086
Average Daily Transactional Value** (30-Day): $4,881,391 (source)
NVT*** (30-Day): 15.26
% Price Change USD (30-Day): -24.3%
% Price Change USD (1-Year): -8.9%
USD All-Time High: $14.16
% From USD All-Time High: -95.7%
Premine % of Max. Supply: N/A
Premine Location: N/A
Liquidity (calculated as the sum of BTC in the buy-side with 10% of current price across all exchanges): 33.46 BTC
Liquidity-to-Network Value %: 0.49%
Supply Available on Exchanges: 4,356,640 KMD
% of Circulating Supply Available on Exchanges: 3.58%
*Volatility is calculated by taking the average price over the given time-period, calculating the difference between it and the highest price and it and the lowest price over that same time-period, and multiplying those figures together. The closer to 0, the less volatility during that period, and vice-versa. Read this for more on volatility.
**Transactional Value in $ is calculated by taking the daily transactional value in KMD and multiplying it by price.
***NVT is calculated by dividing the Network Value by the Average Daily Transactional Value. See here for more on NVT.
Supply Emission & Inflation:
Block Reward Schedule: 3 KMD per block until the maximum supply is reached
Average Block Time: 1 minute
Current Block Height: 2,057,105
Annual Supply Emission: 1,576,800 KMD (88.3 BTC at current prices)
Annual Inflation Rate: 1.29%
Circulating Supply in 365 Days: 123,386,845 KMD
Public Sale Period: October 15th to November 20th, 2016
Total Tokens: 200,000,000 KMD
Total Tokens Available for Public Sale: ~20,000,000 KMD
Total Raised: $1,929,188
Average IEO Price Per Token: $0.096
Total Tokens Sold: ~20,000,000 KMD
Further Details: 100,000,000 KMD were issued in the genesis block of the maximum supply of 200,000,000 KMD, with ~20mn KMD sold to the public in the ICO, 70mn KMD issued in a swap to BitcoinDark holders and 10mn KMD allocated to the team for development and marketing.
Address Count: 76,796
Supply Held By Top 10 Addresses: 18.22%*
Supply Held By Top 20 Addresses: 23.35%*
Supply Held By Top 100 Addresses: 41.45%*
Inactive Address Count in Top 20 (30 Days of No Activity): 4*
*Excluding addresses #1, #2, #3 and #4, as these are not private individual addresses, but including the subsequent individual addresses in the list.
Well, there’s plenty to unpack here, so let’s begin with the metrics related to on-chain transactions:
Having looked at the dexstats dashboard, I found that Komodo averaged ~10,086 Daily On-Chain Transactions for the past month, amounting to an Average Daily Transactional Value of $4,881,391. This is highly impressive, as it gives Komodo a 30-day NVT of 15.26, which is less than a quarter of that of Bitcoin; in short, Komodo is processing more transactional volume on-chain per $ of network value than Bitcoin, on average. Of course, nominally it is magnitudes lower than Bitcoin, but this is a promising sign for the utility of the network.
Before we move on to other metrics, I’d like to highlight Komodo’s 30-day Volatility of -0.0663. This places it in the bottom third of the previous reports, suggesting that, at least against the dollar, Komodo may well be in an accumulation range. We will dive deeper into this in the Technical Analysis section.
Now, let’s take a look at the remaining General metrics before moving on to Supply Emission and concluding with Distribution:
Some of the most significant metrics to evaluate for speculators are those related to buy-side and sell-side Liquidity. I found Komodo to have buy-side Liquidity of 33.46 BTC within 10% of spot price across all listed exchanges, equating to 0.49% of its Network Value. This is the 11th-highest degree of liquidity found amongst all previous reports and indicates relatively high demand for KMD at current prices.
Concerning sell-side Liquidity, Komodo was found to have 4,356,640 KMD available for purchase in the orderbooks across all listed exchanges, equating to 3.58% of its Circulating Supply; the 14th-highest figure amongst previous reports, Overall, there is quite clearly speculative interest here, although there is a relatively high percentage of the supply willing to be sold at any price.
Now, let’s take a look at the volume-related metrics:
Komodo was reported to have traded $2.97mn of Exchange Volume in the past 24 hours, equating to 3,99% of its Network Value. However, at least half of this volume appears to be wash-trading. If we look at the activity on exchanges, a more accurate figure for 24-hour volume is $1.25mn, equating to 1.68% of network value. More importantly, its Average Daily Volume for the past month was $2.56mn, equating to 2.9% of its Average Network Value for the same period; a clear sign of sustained interest. It places Komodo in the top third of prior reports.
Moving onto Supply Emission, based on the indefinite block rewards of 3 KMD per block and 1-minute block times, I calculated that 1,576,800 KMD will be minted annually (88.3 BTC-worth at current prices). This gives Komodo a negligible annual inflation rate of 1.29% (ever-decreasing). As such, there should really be no headwinds for price growth.
However, most significant is the relationship between this Supply Emission and the Volume metrics mentioned above:
Given that 1.576mn KMD are minted annually, we can work out that the average daily supply emission is 4,320 KMD, or 0.242 BTC-worth at current prices. This equates to $2,643 of daily supply emission. As Komodo traded ~$1.255mn of volume over the past 24 hours, and an average of $2.56mn of volume daily for the past month, we find that Komodo’s average daily supply emission is covered 475x by its 24-hour volume and 968x by its Average Exchange Volume. Further, Liquidity of 33.46 BTC covers the average daily supply emission by 138x. This is the highest degree of liquidity coverage against supply emission recorded in these reports.
In short, any decreases in price are undoubtedly driven either by distribution from larger holders or distribution from smaller holders, and not from the daily emissions being dumped on the market.
Finally, let’s take a look at Distribution:
I was rather impressed to find that there are 76,796 holders of KMD. It is the 4th-highest address count of all coins previously reported on. With regards to concentration of supply, the top 10 addresses control 18.22% (22.19mn KMD) of the total supply; the top 20 control 23.35% (28.44mn); and the top 100 control 41.45% (50.5mn). This is, however, excluding address #1, #2, #3 and #8, as #1 and #8 are Binance addresses and #2 and #3 are SuperNET and MSHARK. I have instead included the subsequent individually-owned addresses in the figures. Those 4 addresses control 35.67mn KMD, equating to 29.3% of the total supply. If we do include those addresses, the figures are as follows: the top 10 control 54.16mn, or 44.47%; the top 20 control 61.94mn, or 50.85%; and the top 100 control 86.16mn, or 70.74%.
Within the top 20 individual addresses, 4 were inactive over the past 30 days, Only 2 addresses had distributed during that period, and though on the surface it appears that the remaining 14 addresses are accumulating, the bulk of these transactions are between themselves, with only 4 addresses clearly adding to their balances during that time.
And that concludes this section on Metric Analysis. Onto the Komodo Community:
There are two primary aspects of community analysis: social media presence and Bitcointalk threads. I’ll begin with the former before moving on to the latter.
Concerning social media presence, there are four main platforms to examine: Twitter, Facebook, Telegram and Discord.
Komodo is present on all platforms except Facebook. To begin, let’s look at the various social metrics that I calculated from the Komodo Twitter and Facebook accounts:
Twitter Followers: 103,646
Average Twitter Engagement: 0.09%
Facebook Likes: N/A
Facebook Posts (30-Day): N/A
Average Facebook Engagement: N/A
As usual, I will be using RivalIQ‘s social benchmark report for evaluation purposes.
Whilst the Komodo Twitter account does have one of the largest audiences of any coin previously reported on, its engagement rate is not particularly strong; a common problem, however, for accounts with vast audiences. That said, in RivalIQ’s report, we find that the average Twitter engagement rate across all industries is 0.045%, which means that Komodo’s engagement rate is currently 2x greater. Further, the average engagement rate for the Tech and Software industry is 0.027%, thus Komodo’s is 3.3x greater. Relative to other coins, it is in the bottom fifth for engagement. That said, I would like to add here that despite the relatively poor engagement levels, I saw a concerted effort not only to publish consistently to the platform but also found content that was attempting to be engaging, with contests, takeovers and other such posts that are aimed at getting the community involved. I admire the commitment shown here.
There is no Facebook page available for Komodo.
There are 9,215 members of the Komodo Discord group.
Clearly, Discord is Komodo’s primary community hub, as the scope of the group is wide and the members are quite active. Right off the bat, the group has a broader range of topics and channels than most Discord groups, reflecting the breadth of the Komodo ecosystem. Though it is not relevant to cover the activity of all channels here, it is important to note that the group is well-organised and thorough.
For our purposes, we will be looking at Official News, General and some of the Discussion Sprint sub-channels. Beyond this, there are channels for every component and sub-component of the Komodo ecosystem.
Below, I have provided my key takeaways from recent activity in the aforementioned channels:
- Official News is generally updated every few days, with recent announcements including: detailed article releases on technical topics; Komodo joining the BPSAA alliance, working towards achieving interoperability among the alliance members; AtomicDEX mobile and PRO (desktop) updated releases; support for the QRC20 token standard on AtomicDEX; and a focused campaign on Komodo’s growing efforts within DeFi.
- The team and community have regular detailed discussions on the ongoing architecture of the Komodo brand and the recent AtomicDeFi focus, where the team are seeking to push Komodo solutions within the DeFi space. These are granular, engaged and highly fruitful. It is refreshing to see such commitment to the ongoing growth of a project and the community’s pivotal role in this. The team also clearly take on board community feedback and suggestions, with certain decisions taken by the team being retracted in light of discussion with the community. The collaborative process is integral here.
- Within General, I found that the team are very much present and swift to answer support queries and questions about the project. Moreover, the community is engaged and excited about the future of Komodo, with discussion focusing on the project itself as opposed to simply price or hype. Regarding activity levels, these could be higher, as, despite nearly 10k members in the group, there is less activity day-to-day than in similarly-sized groups in previous reports. That said, as the discussion in other channels can be very focused and constant for short periods of time, there is clearly plenty of engagement with the present and future state of Komodo.
There are 7,238 members of the Komodo Telegram group.
Despite the group having over 7,000 members, it is clear that Telegram is not Komodo’s primary community platform, as there are barely a dozen messages posted a day.
The bulk of the activity is comprised of links to external resources being posted into the group, and, regarding the activity of the past week, there is nothing to be highlighted that has not already been mentioned in the Discord section above.
The Komodo BitcoinTalk thread was created on September 1st, 2016, and has since generated 17,498 posts spanning 875 pages in 1479 days. This equates to 11.83 posts per day, on average. However, in the past 90 days, the thread has had 25 posts, giving an average of 0.27 posts per day; a significant decline in engagement, with the thread effectively unused now.
As one might imagine, the announcement itself contains relevant links to social platforms, resources, tools and a weekly newsletter, whilst also highlighting the primary features of Komodo; namely, that it is a multi-chain architecture, which is fully composable and modular, whilst remaining open-source. I also found a useful but brief FAQ covering topics such as the ICO, smart chains, the Antara framework, delayed Proof-of-Work and atomic swaps, all of which we will come to in the next section of this report.
Overall, the community is large and committed, with strong, fruitful discussions occurring frequently. However, overall engagement levels aren’t as impressive as one might expect.
And that concludes the evaluation of the Komodo community.
Let’s take a look at its developmental progress:
For the following Development analysis, I will be evaluating project leadership, the website, the roadmap, the whitepaper, the wallets and finally providing a general overview:
There are 67 employees on LinkedIn, with 39 employees listed on the website, as well as 7 contributors, 5 ambassadors and 4 advisors. Moreover, Komodo are currently hiring 2 developers.
More specifically, the core team comprises:
- Audo Kowitz, Director of Marketing
- Kadan Stadelmann, Chief Technology Officer
- Tony Lysakov, Support & QA Team Manager
- Sergey Boyko, AtomicDEX API Developer
- Yurii Khiznichenko, Frontend Developer
- Artem Pikulin, Senior Software Developer
- Artemciy, Software Architect
- Dmitriy Menschchikov, CC Developer
- James Lee, Core Developer and Founder
- Jorge Rodriguez, Security Advisor
- Mihail Fedorov, Sysadmin / IT Expert
- Rick Bird, Developer / IT Expert
- Mihailo Milenkovic, Core Developer
- Petr Balashov, Frontend Developer
- Roman Sztergbaum, Software Developer & Blockchain Architect
- Satinder Grewal, Software Developer
- Tolga Ay, Developer & Blockchain Architect
- Igor Govyashov, QA Automation Engineer
- Yaroslav Yanshuevskiy, Junior QA Engineer
- Alice, Event Manager
- Guru Charan Gupta, Dev Documentation Writer
- Thor Mennet, QA Engineer
- Delton Rhodes, Content Manager
- Charles Gonzalez, Business Development Manager – Latin America, Founder of ChainZilla
- Bob Embregts, Art Director
- Bryan Beus, Senior Technical Writer & Junior Web Developer
- Deniz Erdem, Business Developer – Europe
- Jason Brown, Business Developer – North America
And the advisory board is comprised of:
- Dr. Sajib Datta, Strategic Advisor
- Michael J. Toutonghi, Strategic Advisor
- Ben Fairbank, Strategic Advisor
- Steve Lee, Strategic Advisor
Clearly, this is one of the most extensive teams in crypto, with a huge developer base and yet they are still hiring, which is fantastic to see. Not only that, but the team covers all relevant fields and has managed to grow to its present size without a considerable ICO funding them. Impressive.
The website can be found here.
The Komodo website is well-designed, modern and certainly comprehensive, with clear navigation and a plethora of resources native to the site. It is also well-branded.
If we begin with the homepage, we find that the AtomicDEX is front and centre, with a tagline reading Try The Next Generation of DEX Technology. We are invited to try out the Beta, with the overview highlighting its minimal fees, non-custodial access and atomic swap functionality. The second featured component of the ecosystem is the Komodo Community Portal, although having looked into this I found that it is now closing down.
If we scroll down the homepage, we find an overview of the platform itself, with an interactive layer-by-layer walkthrough of the various components:
The Komodo platform is built to be open, composable and utilising Smart Chains, within a multi-chain architecture. As such, developers are able to build out fully customisable projects on an Antara Smart Chain, which is not only protected by Bitcoin through Delayed Proof-of-Work but benefits from the inter-connectivity of the Komodo architecture. In order to build on Komodo, developers must interact with Komodo Core and the Antara Framework. The former is primarily for platform security, scaling and interoperability, whilst the latter is more of a developer toolkit that facilitates advanced business logic and native app support on-chain. Each project on Komodo is independent, operating on its own Smart Chain with its own consensus, network and native token, with all projects benefiting from delayed Proof-of-Work, which notarizes data and allows for Bitcoin’s security to protect Komodo projects. Whilst existing independently, through the Platform Synchronization protocol these projects are interoperable, allowing for cross-chain transfers of both value and logic. Moreover, each Smart Chain is able to be scaled without limit, as Komodo can cluster multiple Smart Chains to function as a single chain.
Now, moving towards the footer of the homepage, we find an overview of the three primary features of Komodo:
- Multi-Chain: Komodo is able to support an infinite number of Smart Chains, with each chain existing independently with its own consensus, network and tokens, allowing for scalability, low transaction fees and fast transactions.
- Composable: Komodo is modular and fully customisable, with developers able to utilise a number of solutions to build out their projects, facilitating high functionality, ease-of-development and flexibility.
- Open: Komodo is fully open-source, with developers free to built on the platform permissionlessly. There are no gas fees, external dependence and no vendor lock-in.
As we come to the footer of the homepage, we find links to social platforms, targeted access points for Developers, Enterprise and Enthusiasts and a list of recent blog posts, as well as a historical timeline of Komodo’s milestones, which is super useful for potential new users and speculators.
Let’s head back to the navigation menu in the header:
Here, we have a Get Started section that contains links to wallets, exchanges and developer documentation, a Technology section with dedicated pages for a number of technological components and features of the platform, a Community section, an Ecosystem and About page and a News page that functions as a native blog, with articles published fairly regularly.
The About page has already been covered, as it primarily consists of team information, detailed in the above sections.
The current Ecosystem of Komodo projects includes: Hush, VerusCoin, PirateChain, KMD Labs, HempCoin, Pungo, Utrum, Einsteinium and GameCredits.
Overall, the website is highly informational and easy to navigate.
Unlike most projects where often even the existence of one detailed roadmap is too much of an ask, I was impressed to find that Komodo actually has two versions of its roadmap: a static but granular PDF for its 2020 goals across its ecosystem and a live, interactive roadmap native to the website, the latter of which has progress updates, a list of completed and pending tasks for each goal and an overview of the individual goal, all segmented by ecosystem component. That said, there is clearly some updating to do, as many of the goals are beyond release dates but no progression has been highlighted.
For the purposes of this section, I will be covering the website-native roadmap, found here, but I do encourage readers to check out the PDF also.
Beginning with Komodo Core, the 2020 goals are as follows:
- Notary Node Elections, which were completed in March and updated in May.
- Komodo Name Service, where zero tasks of the three have been completed (or, if they have been, the roadmap has not yet been updated to reflect this). The KNS will allow for human-readable names for addresses.
- Delayed Proof-of-Work 2.0 is expected to be released in Q4 2020, although none of the four tasks leading up to the release have been completed according to the roadmap.
- The New Komodo Core was scheduled for release on April 14th, 2020, but again this has not been updated to reflect this.
- Dual-Daemon Interoperability is currently in development, implementing a 1-to-1 asset conversion protocol between two chains that are linked by a dual-daemon configuration. According to the roadmap this is currently 11% to completion.
Subsequently, we find the Antara Framework goals:
- The Antara Module Library is expected to have some modules removed from Komodo Core to make them optional, in order to improve composability. According to the roadmap, a July review was expected for a few goals in order to provide tasks for the latter half of the year, but this has not been done.
- A Finite State Machine is under development for Antara, in order to increase the developer base. Work began on this in January and an update is expected to be provided in October.
- Oracles-as-a-service are planned for Antara Composer, whereby an oracle can be created with one-click from any external data feed. No progress has been provided on this.
- A Stablecoin module that facilitates algorithmic stablecoin creation with KMD as collateral is currently in development, with an October update expected. This will be used for DeFi applications.
- The Antara Incubator is scheduled for launch, where a decentralised incubator platform will operate on top of Composer, with fundraising and management layers. Again, no update has been provided on this.
Moving on to the AtomicDEX goals:
- The Mobile UX overhaul of AtomicDEX is 80% completed.
- AtomicDEXtop – the desktop client of AtomicDEX – is in development, with a public alpha having been released in March.
- The Mobile 1.0 Release Candidate is expected to launch in Q4 2020.
- The AtomicWEB Beta web client is a standalone web app and is scheduled for alpha release this quarter, although no update has been provided.
- The OTC-DEX will allow for OTC swaps with pubkey whitelisting; it is currently in development but no progress update has been provided.
Beyond these core component goals, there are also a list of moonshot goals, which are as follows:
- Private Smart Chains on Komodo Core
- Transfer of logic interoperability with Tendermint
- Transfer of logic interoperability with Hyperledger
- IoT-DEX proof-of-concept, with AtomicDEX running on Raspberry Pi / embedded systems; given use-cases are vending machine and point-of-sale
- kEUR minting, with KMD collateral minting a kEUR stablecoin in-wallet
- DataP2P file-sharing protocol
Overall, clearly the ambition is obvious and the team are working on some important developments to progress the project, but, given how fantastic the roadmap is, it would be great to have progress updates provided so that users can continue to remain informed.
The whitepaper available for Komodo is 84 pages in length and was published two and a half years ago. Moreover, the scope of the document goes beyond what I could possibly hope to include here for non-technical individuals (like myself) without turning this already-dissertation length report into a novella.
That said, the primary points of interest covered in the whitepaper are also – thankfully – detailed on the website, as highlighted above.
Komodo currently has 5 desktop client options, 4 of which are 3rd-party developed. It is also supported by 7 3rd-party mobile wallets and a paper wallet option. KMD can also be stored on both Ledger and Trezor hardware wallets.
And that concludes my fundamental analysis of Komodo.
Komodo has been around for a long time now, and, as we can quite clearly see from the weekly chart for both the Dollar and Bitcoin pair, there have been several distinct market cycles during this time.
Firstly, if we begin with KMD/BTC, we can see that price experienced a flash crash that sent KMD to its current all-time low of 750 satoshis in March 2017, following which we saw a multi-month rally taking price to the still-all-time-high at 102,430 satoshis in June. Price then fell off, printing sequential lower-highs and lower-lows between then and November 2017, where support was found at 17k satoshis. Price then rallied in two weeks to print a double top at 86k satoshis, after which – as we know – the crypto market entered a multi-year bear market. During this time, the November 2017 low gave way, as price formed a new range support at 13,450 satoshis for several months between August 2018 and May 2019. Though this consolidation appeared as though it may be the beginning of a new cycle (an accumulation range at support), this support too gave way as the bear market dragged on and price has since been range-bound between support at 5,300 satoshis and resistance at 9,200 satoshis for the best part of a year. Before we look at the daily, it is interesting to note that this really is the last higher-timeframe support area. If this near-year-long support gives way, there’s not a great deal of support to the all-time low, which makes an entry in the lower portion of this range that much more attractive from a risk/reward perspective. Why? Because the invalidation couldn’t be clearer – an exit on a weekly close below 5,000 satoshis, with KMD only being re-entered on a reclaim of that level subsequently.
Now, if we turn to the daily, we can see more clearly that this support has held for 329 days, with plenty of volume traded during that time-period. Moreover, the 360dMA has been capping price since the false breakout in March 2019, with price struggling to get above that MA. Risk-averse speculators would be wise to wait for a reclaim of this MA before entering, or even wait for a breakout above the triple-top at 9,200 satoshis, but I personally feel that risk/reward is skewed most favourably here. Looking forward, I do expect Komodo to do well when its next cycle begins; we are effectively paying Q1 2017 prices for a project that has had 3 and a half years of consistent development and growth of its ecosystem since.
Looking at KMD/USD, we can see that support has been found at $0.49 since October 2018, with price only once dipping below this since, during the mid-March 2020 capitulation. Resistance at $1.08 has been capping price for the past year, and I expect a breakout above the level to lead to a very fast move into prior support turned resistance in the $2 area. It is only above this that things get exciting, as the subsequent area of resistance is $4.50, followed by $11. If I’m honest, Komodo is one of the very few projects from 2017 that I believe can legitimately break new USD all-time highs in its next cycle, as a $15 price within the next 18 months would have the market cap around $1.8bn; only ~20% higher than the previous market cap all-time high of $1.5bn.
And that concludes my evaluation of Komodo.
This report is now over 5,000 words, and it is time to draw it to a close.
My final grading for Komodo is 9 out of 10.
Here, you can find my grading framework, for reference.
Lastly, here is a link to a Google Sheets file with any significant data from previous reports compiled for cross-comparative purposes. I will keep this updated as I continue to write these reports.
I hope this report has proved insightful and that you’ve enjoyed the read! Please do feel free to leave any questions in the Comments, and I’ll answer them as best I can.