You are currently viewing Coin Report #67: Adbank

Coin Report #67: Adbank

Welcome to the 67th Coin Report. In today’s report, I will be assessing the fundamental and technical strengths and weaknesses of Adbank. This will be comprised of an analysis of a number of significant metrics, an evaluation of the project’s community and development and an overview of its price-history. The report will conclude with a grading out of 10. I hope you enjoy the read!

Introduction

This is the fifth of my subscriber-exclusive Coin Reports, with Adbank winning the November poll. Each month, I will run a poll and publish a Coin Report on the winner either that month or the following month, available only to those of you that are subscribed to my premium content.

Keep your eyes out for the December poll, which will be hitting your inboxes soon.

I hope this report will prove objective where it must be and fair on more subjective matters. For those who’d like to learn a little more about Adbank prior to reading this report, here are some primary links:


Fundamental Analysis

General:

Name: Adbank

Ticker: ADB

Hashing Algorithm / Token Type: ERC-20

Sector: Advertising

Exchanges: Kucoin

Launch Overview

Adbank was conceptualised in early 2017 by John Gillham as a solution for the problems plaguing the advertising industry, launching officially in December 2017 with an ICO for its ADB token. ADB was issued as an ERC-20 token with a maximum supply of 1,000,000,000 ADB, with Adbank raising ~$13.9mn (10,000 ETH) by mid-January 2018, in exchange for 51% of the maximum supply. The remaining tokens were allocated as follows: 29% reserved for advertiser liquidity; 15% to the team (locked for 3 years with 6-month unlocks); 2.5% to the advisory board; and 2.5% to bounties.

Adbank 1.0 was launched in mid-2018, followed by the release of the public mainnet in Q2 2019.

Price-History Overview

As Adbank has now been in existence for three years, there is plenty of price-history available to evaluate. For now, it will suffice to say that the all-time high was formed at $0.042 in February 2018 as trading began, with its all-time high against Bitcoin coinciding at 453 satoshis. Its all-time low formed in January 2020 at $0.00025. Against Bitcoin, its all-time low again coincided at 3 satoshis. We will cover its price-history at length in the Technical Analysis section.

Project Overview

Adbank is, unlike many projects in the space, focused on one sector alone: advertising. Specifically, the project is building a blockchain-based advertising solution that is transparent for advertisers and publishers and inherently anti-fraud.

As stated in its whitepaper:

Adbank’s application of blockchain technology, the patent pending-pending
AI anti-fraud technology, and the Adbank token will create a transparent
ecosystem, which will allow payments from advertisers to publishers to be
traced.

Adbank has created and submitted patent pendings on new forms of fraud
detection based on artificial intelligence and the blockchain. Whereas traditional
fraud detection systems are constructed to run within whatever advertising
network they were designed for, Adbank’s anti-fraud system will have full
access to the entire platform, which includes blockchain. These additional
sources of information allow the AI to find connections between information in
the advertising system and on the blockchain that other systems can’t leverage.
This means that Adbank’s anti-fraud AI can succeed where others fail by being
built into the very fabric of the Adbank platform.

Adbank is unique in its’ business plan, where its path to disruption includes a
roll-up strategy to acquire existing ad-networks and convert them to the use of
Adbank tokens. This acquisition and conversion of an existing networks strategy
is unique to both Adbanks core services platform and Adbanks business plan.
Adbank’s plans to deploy $10 million USD in acquisitions may result in the ADB
token having a token-transactional volume of $20 million USD a month. This
figure does not include the growth expected and the advanced AI technology
and improved economics to generate by lowering advertisers’ costs.

Adbank does not intend to be the biggest network but instead provide the tools
to allow other ad networks to convert to the ADB token and realize the same
benefits of transparency and AI anti-fraud the blockchain provides.

I look forward to evaluating its progress in this respect.

Let’s begin with some Metric Analysis:


Metric Analysis:

Below are listed a number of important metrics, all of which are accurate as of 13th November 2020. For anyone reading this who has yet to read a Coin Report, it might be worth reading this section of the first report, where any potentially unfamiliar terms are explained. For any terms or metrics specific to this post, I will provide explanations besides the figures.

Metrics:

General:

Price: $0.001 (6 satoshis)

Circulating Supply: 809,790,210 ADB

Total Supply: 1,000,000,000 ADB

Maximum Supply: 1,000,000,000 ADB

% of Max. Supply Minted: 100%

Network Value: $815,813 (50.421 BTC)

Network Value at Max. Supply: $1.007mn

Exchange Volume: $4,980

Exchange Volume-to-Network Value: 0.61%

Category: Microcap

Average Price (30-Day): $0.00097

Average Exchange Volume (30-Day): $2,755

Average Network Value (30-Day): $781,552 

Average Exchange Volume (30-Day)-to-Network Value: 0.35%

Volatility* (30-Day): -0.0723

Average Daily On-Chain Transactions (30-Day): 8

Average Daily Transactional Value** (30-Day): $8,793 (source)

NVT*** (30-Day): 92.78

% Price Change USD (30-Day): -5.6%

% Price Change USD (1-Year): +139.6%

USD All-Time High: $0.042

% From USD All-Time High: -97.3%

Premine % of Max. Supply: 0

Premine Location: N/A

Liquidity (calculated as the sum of BTC in the buy-side with 10% of current price across all exchanges): 0.51 BTC

Liquidity-to-Network Value %: 1.01%

Supply Available on Exchanges: 50,441,476 ADB

% of Circulating Supply Available on Exchanges: 6.23%

*Volatility is calculated by taking the average price over the given time-period, calculating the difference between it and the highest price and it and the lowest price over that same time-period, and multiplying those figures together. The closer to 0, the less volatility during that period, and vice-versa. Read this for more on volatility.

**Transactional Value in $ is calculated by taking the daily transactional value in ADB and multiplying it by price.

***NVT is calculated by dividing the Network Value by the Average Daily Transactional Value. See here for more on NVT.

 

Supply Emission & Inflation:

Block Reward Schedule: N/A

Average Block Time: N/A

Current Block Height: N/A

Annual Supply Emission: 0

Annual Inflation Rate0%

Circulating Supply in 365 Days: N/A

Token Sale:

The following details were taken from this source and this source.

Public Sale Period: 14th December 2017 – 14th January 2018

Total Tokens: 1,000,000,000 ADB

Total Tokens Available for Public Sale510,000,000 ADB

Total Raised: ~$13,900,000 (10,000 ETH hard cap fulfilled)

Average Price Per Token: $0.027

Total Tokens Sold: 510,000,000 ADB

Token Distribution:

  • ICO: 510,000,000 ADB
  • Advertiser Reserve: 290,000,000 ADB
  • Team: 150,000,000 ADB (3-year lockup, 6-month unlocks)
  • Advisory Board: 25,000,000 ADB
  • Bounties: 25,000,000 ADB
Distribution:

Address Count: 6,060

Supply Held By Top 10 Addresses: 65.07%*

Supply Held By Top 20 Addresses: 70.59%*

Supply Held By Top 100 Addresses: 84.5%*

Inactive Address Count in Top 20 (30 Days of No Activity): 17**

*Calculated as a percentage of maximum supply, as there is technically no locked supply remaining. Also includes the #1 and #2 addresses, which are unlabeled but unlikely to be private addresses. #1 is likely a team address, whilst #2 may well be the Kucoin Hacker’s address, as the most recent transaction into it is from a Kucoin Hacker-labeled address.

**Excluding #1 and #2, more on this later.

Analysis:

There’s quite a lot to cover here for Adbank and I’d like to begin by looking at the transaction-related metrics, before continuing with the remaining General metrics and concluding with the (lack of) Supply Emission and Inflation and some Distribution analysis:

So, looking at Etherscan, from the past 30 days of activity, I found that there were an average of 8 daily on-chain transactions over that period, equating to $8,793 of transactional volume on average per day. This gives Adbank a 30-day NVT of 92.76. This is around 1.5x that of Bitcoin at present.

Now, let’s take a look at Adbank’s Volatility, which came in at a moderate level. I calculated its 30-day figure to be -0.0723, which places it 24th-lowest among prior reports. This is potentially indicative of a consolidation range, and thus possibly accumulation underway preceding a new cycle. We will take a look at this at length a little later.

Moving on, let’s take a look at the two Liquidity-related metrics:

For buy-side Liquidity, I calculated that there was 0.51 BTC of buy support within 10% of current prices across listed exchanges, equating to 1.01% of its Network Value. Whilst this is a relatively high figure – the 6th-highest previously recorded – nominally this is quite poor, and this is likely a symptom of just the one exchange listing. Nonetheless, relative to its market cap (or Network Value) it is promising.

Looking at the sell-side, I calculated there to be 50,441,476 ADB available for purchase on the orderbooks, equating to 6.23% of the circulating supply. Much like buy-side liquidity, this is relatively high, in the top fifth of prior reports, indicating that, whilst there is relatively high demand at current prices, there is also an equivalent desire to sell at any price by holders.

Before I move on from the General metrics, let’s take a look at those related to volume:

Adbank traded $4,980 of Exchange Volume over the past 24 hours, equating to 0.61% of its Network Value; a weak figure. Further, its Average Daily Volume for the past 30 days was $2,755, equating to 0.35% of its Average Network Value for the same period. This is the 11th-lowest figure recorded in these reports and not particularly indicative of speculative interest at present.

Now, with regards to Adbank’s supply emission, in short, there is none. This is due to all ADB being in existence already, with only ~190mn of the 1bn ADB maximum supply not in circulation according to CoinGecko, although all of this is now unlocked. Nonetheless, there is no real supply emission remaining and thus there should be no real headwinds to price growth for Adbank.

Let’s wrap up this section with a look at Distribution:

Looking at the Adbank rich-list, I found that there were 6,060 holders, which is the 20th-lowest figure found in these reports.

Of these holders, the top 10 addresses control 65.07% of the maximum supply; the top 20 control 70.59%; and the top 100 control 84.5%. The reason for this being calculated as a percentage of maximum supply as opposed to circulating is because all tokens are already in existence and the vast majority of the maximum supply is circulating, as it is. These figures also include addresses #1 and #2, the former of which is likely a team-controlled address and the latter of which could be related to the Kucoin Hacker, as the most recent transaction into the address is from a Kucoin Hacker-labelled address. Excluding addresses #1 and #2, the top 10 control 28.5% of the maximum supply; the top 20 control 33.4%; and the top 100 controls 45.96%. 

Now, regarding the activity of the top 20 addresses over the past 30 days (excluding addresses #1 and #2), an overwhelming majority of these was inactive for that period; 17 addresses in fact. Of the remaining 3, 1 address distributed and 2 accumulated ADB over that period, with net inflows of 65,155,715 ADB, equating to 6.51% of the maximum supply.

Let’s now take a look at the Adbank community:


Community:

There are two primary aspects of community analysis: social media presence and Bitcointalk threads. I’ll begin with the former before moving on to the latter.

Social Media:

Concerning social media presence, there are four main platforms to examine: Twitter, Facebook, Telegram and Discord.

Adbank is present on all platforms except Discord. To begin, let’s look at the various social metrics that I calculated from the Adbank Twitter and Facebook accounts:

Twitter Followers: 5,955

Tweets: 1,421

Average Twitter Engagement: 0.15%

Facebook Likes: 4,640

Facebook Posts (30-Day): 3

Average Facebook Engagement: 0.03%

As usual, I will be using RivalIQ‘s social benchmark report for evaluation purposes.

Twitter:

Adbank has a relatively small Twitter audience of 5,955 followers, which places it 20th-lowest among coins previously reported on. Despite such a small audience, it has very weak engagement at 0.15%. This is 3.3x greater than the average across all industries of 0.045% and 5.5x greater than the average in the Tech and Software industry of 0.027%; relative to other Coin Reports, however, this is the 4th-lowest engagement rate. Given that Adbank operates within the advertising sector, this is particularly disappointing, both on engagement and audience size.

Facebook:

Now, with regards to Facebook, Adbank has a fairly similarly-sized audience of 4,640 Likes, but the page does appear neglected somewhat, with only 3 posts in the past 30 days. Moreover, engagement is abysmal at 0.03%. This is one-third of the average across all industries of 0.09% and only 1.5x greater than the average in the Tech and Software industry of 0.02%, despite a much smaller audience than many of the companies in that sector in RivalIQ’s report. Relative to prior reports, it is 3rd-lowest. Overall, engagement across both Twitter and Facebook is very poor. Attention needs to be redirected here swiftly by the team.

Discord:

There is no Discord group for Adbank.

Telegram:

There are 3,333 members of the Adbank Telegram group.

I have provided my key takeaways from recent activity in the group below:

  • There are a handful of daily messages here, but the group is not overly active.
  • Questions from the community are answered fairly promptly.
  • Much of the activity in the group is regarding the referral program.
  • The CEO is active in the group, which is great to see.
  • The referral program is heavily promoted and one of the primary campaigns driving community growth.

Beyond this, there is little else to take away from the activity of the group and there does not seem to be any palpable excitement about the future of the project.

BitcoinTalk:

The Adbank BitcoinTalk thread was created on November 15th, 2017, and has since generated 712 posts spanning 36 pages in 1,092 days. This equates to 0.65 posts per day, on average. However, in the past 90 days, the thread has had 1 post, rendering it inactive. That most recent post was an announcement that the Blade ad-blocker is now live for Chrome and Firefox.

And that concludes my evaluation of the Adbank community.


Development:

For the following Development analysis, I will be evaluating project leadership, the website, the roadmap, the whitepaper, the wallets and finally providing a general overview:

Project Leadership:

The Adbank team is comprised of 14 employees, as per LinkedIn, with 11 core team members listed on the website. There are also 9 listed advisors.

More specifically, the core team consists of:

As per the whitepaper, the advisory board for Adbank includes:

  • 7, Founder of PIVX
  • Robert Lendvai, CMO at Flixel Inc.
  • Trevor Koverko, CEO of Polymath
  • Kent Koren, Creative Director at VaynerMedia
  • Joni Joyner, Ad Tech Expert
  • Shauna Arnott, Owner of Haste & Hustle
  • Daniel Shapiro, PhD, Artificial Intelligence Expert
  • Leon Pereira, Adbank Co-Founder
  • Alex Brown, Co-Founder of The Beard Club

Website:

The website can be found here.

The website itself is well-designed, with quite distinctive branding and clear navigation. The tagline on the homepage reads The Future of Advertising Has Arrived and the core premise is explained – that Adbank leverages blockchain to make ad spend more efficient and facilitate higher payments for publishers. A link is provided to the portal, where advertisers can sign up to the solution. As we scroll down the homepage, we find more information on the ad platform, including the fact that ad fraud costs advertisers up to 50% of ad budgets, with publishers losing out on up to 90% of revenues due to middlemen. Moreover, the use of blockchain technology means that Adbank’s solution is fully transparent, creating a layer of trust between advertisers and publishers. As we come to the footer of the page, we discover that Adbank uses a patent-pending AI oracle to significantly reduce ad fraud. The homepage concludes with links to social platforms.

If we navigate back to the header, there are several pages linked here, but the FAQ page does not load the Wiki that it links to. Of the remaining pages, two are social (Telegram and Contact), one links to recent news articles via Medium (discussed below), one links to the portal for sign-ups to the platform and one links to a more detailed About page. On this About page, we find team and advisory board information (covered above), details on the token sale that were covered in the Metric Analysis section of this report, the roadmap (covered below) and partnerships. Unfortunately, clicking through to the Partnerships section of the website does not work, with the page not loading.

Beyond this, Adbank also has a regularly updated Medium blog to keep the community informed of developments.

On the topic of Medium, there are three recent Medium posts that I would also like to cover here, each of which is a quarterly update, as these contain important details on project development:

  • Q1 2020: In Q1, BLADE was removed from Firefox for over a month but has since been restored, with COVID-19 creating new challenges, such as ad spend decreases of around 40%. The Task Marketplace went live, where users can be rewarded ADB for completing tasks. For this period, the team was focused on aggressive user acquisition for BLADE. Regarding runway, Adbank’s capital efficiency and revenue from ECig Media (an ad network acquired by Adbank) has led to break-evens on expenditures, providing infinite runway assuming all else remains the same. Adbank partnered with Skeinera for a multi-phase test of the platform and released a new website.
  • Q2 2020: In Q2, Skeinera’s testing of Adbank continued, BLADE went live on Firefox again and the team launched a 10mn ADB giveaway via the referral campaign. Moreover, the team announced Relay.digital – a B2B service built on Adbank to provide solutions for Working From Home.
  • Q3 2020: Finally, in Q3, more issues were experienced with the BLADE extensions, including a second review by Firefox and some other bugs relating to the dramatic increase in gas costs due to Ethereum network congestion, which affects Adbank’s solution. The team are testing the solution to this at present. Regarding growth in userbase, Q3 saw 43,000 new users (where Q2 saw 6,700 new users), taking the number of total active users above 85k (see the next section for a more up-to-date figure).

Roadmap:

The roadmap can be found here.

The roadmap itself is presented as a timeline, beginning with conceptualisation in April 2017 and culminating in Q4 2020 (where we currently are). As such, there are no milestones or expectations available to us for the forthcoming year. However, in 2020, Adbank has been focused on its quarterly referral campaigns, designed to drive adoption. Beyond this, in Q1, Adbank launched a new website, released testing for the Marketplace and pursued government funding (in line with grant funding that began in 2019). In Q2, they released their Easter Egg case study and began building a mobile version of the solution to test adoption. In Q3, the roadmap mentions a top secret marketing campaign but nothing more is referred to here, and the team built automated task completion tracking into Adbank Core. In Q4, the team are continuing work on their top secret marketing campaign, integrating task completion tracking for mobile and preparing for marketplace launch in 2021.

Whilst there is some clarity here on individual goals, there are no further reading materials nor any native explanations of the goals, thus requiring visitors to search for information on each goal themselves (potentially negatively affecting community growth), rendering accountability more difficult and preventing a high degree of transparency regarding the vision of the team. It would also be great to see some detail on the 2021 goals for Adbank.

That said, I did also find this Medium post with a little more detail on the 2020 roadmap.

In that post, we find a summary of progress made in 2019, with the most important takeaway here that Adbank surpassed its goal of 10,000 users of BLADE, hitting over 25,000 users by 2020. We also find important milestones for 2020, including BLADE user growth to 100k users, as well as CPMs over $2.50. Importantly, the team also make it clear that their runway as per December 2019 projected well into 2021.

If we navigate quickly to the dashboard linked within this post, we find that BLADE currently has 88,775 active users, with 34k of these on Chrome and 54.7k on Firefox. This is very much on track for the primary 2020 milestone, which is great to see.

Lastly, I also found this more helpful diagram of core 2020 goals:

roadmap2020

Whitepaper:

The whitepaper can be found here.

This whitepaper was published three years ago and has not been updated since. As such, it is not particularly useful for our purposes, with much of the primary content having been covered already in this report.

Wallets:

As ADB is an ERC-20 token, it can be stored on any ERC-compatible wallet, including hardware wallets like Ledger and Trezor, plus a plethora of web wallets and desktop clients.

And that concludes my fundamental analysis of Adbank.


Technical Analysis:

ADB/BTC

Weekly:

Daily:

ADBBTCDaily

So, as we can see from the above charts, Adbank has now been trading for almost three years. In that time, ADB has experienced a couple of minor market cycles but – as is evident from the weekly chart – it has spent the bulk of its existence in a long-term downtrend against Bitcoin. Given that ADB is also a microcap with a nominally high supply, its USD chart is irrelevant (there also is no USD or stablecoin market for ADB). With such projects, I focus exclusively on its chart against BTC.

If we look at the weekly chart, we can see that early trading in February 2018 saw price trade at the still-all-time-high of 453 satoshis, before plunging towards a support level at 119 satoshis several weeks later. This became the base in April 2018 before ADB rallied to a lower-high at 315 satoshis, concluding that short-term bull cycle. Subsequently, price broke below that 119-satoshi base in July and fell to new all-time lows at 39 satoshis, where price consolidated fora brief period before falling to another low in early 2019 at 19 satoshis. This became a new cyclical low for a short-term market cycle that drove price back up to 97 satoshis, but ultimately even this floor gave way as price bled out slowly to the current all-time low at 3 satoshis. Most interestingly, however, this 3-satoshi floor appears to have held for the best part of a year. If we turn to the daily, we can see that a range formed between September 2019 and August 2020 between the all-time low at 3 satoshis and range resistance at 12 satoshis. I remember buying this range in June before price broke out and test-pumped into prior resistance at 39 satoshis, selling as a double top formed below that level. Since, price has returned into the range and it may well be the case that ADB/BTC will now sweep that all-time low, reclaim the level and then rally higher (as many altcoins did in late 2016-early 2017). If we do see a sweep and reclaim, I will be interested in buying despite fundamental weaknesses for a purely speculative play, expecting at least a retest of that 39-satoshis level. Alternatively, speculators could buy this range and put a stop on a weekly close below the all-time low, although I personally would prefer to wait this one out as I can see it getting swept if Bitcoin pushes any higher anytime soon.

And that concludes my evaluation of Adbank.


Conclusion

This report is now over 4,000 words, and it is time to draw it to a close.

My final grading for Adbank is 6 out of 10.

Here, you can find my grading framework, for reference.

Lastly, here is a link to a Google Sheets file with any significant data from previous reports compiled for cross-comparative purposes. I will keep this updated as I continue to write these reports.

I hope this report has proved insightful and that you’ve enjoyed the read! Please do feel free to leave any questions in the Comments, and I’ll answer them as best I can.


 

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