Market Outlook #2

Market Outlook #2 (17th September 2018)

So, for the second Market Outlook post, we will be looking at Bitcoin (as always), with an update on Monero and Ethereum from last week’s Market Outlook, and then introducing three smaller coins that I am rather bullish on for any potential alt-season (Ethereum-led or otherwise). These are Covesting, which is one of only three ICOs that I have ever invested in; Gridcoin, which is an old-school PoW research coin; and Blackcoin, which is the first ever staking coin, and one that I published a rich-list case study on a couple of months back.

For these Market Outlook posts, I will generally be providing updates on the big three (in my eyes, at least): Bitcoin; Monero; Ethereum. Bitcoin is a constant, but Monero and Ethereum have only crossed my radar as buy-worthy following their 80%+ tumbles from their respective highs. As such, I believe accumulating both at present will be profitable in the long run. Following updates on these, each week I think I’ll provide updates on two or three smaller projects. Last week’s were Ardor and Stratis, both of which are lingering where they were, give or take 5%.

Also, for each coin, I may choose to include both BTC and USD-denominated charts, or only one of the two; same goes for whether weekly and daily charts are included or only one. This will be down to whether there is actually anything interesting going on in those charts that I feel needs bringing to your attention.

Finally, I’d like to stress that the time-scale I work on is extensive; six months at minimum. Though these posts are and will continue to be a weekly feature, that is primarily to remain informed.

Anyways, enough of that. Let’s start with BTC.

Bitcoin:

Price: $6468

Market Cap: $112.24bn

Thoughts: My thoughts on Bitcoin have changed little from last week. The only thing that I was happy to see was another rejection from closing the weekly below $6000. This is the fifth weekly rejection from that level, which could be a promising sign if it is followed by a high-volume higher-high forming above $7500 in the coming weeks. Of course, we could see price break down again this week and lose the higher-low that has been formed on the daily, which would indicate a potential loss of the $6k level altogether.


Monero:

XMR/USD


XMR/BTC

Price: $115.81 (0.0178 BTC)

Market Cap: $1.97bn (293,342 BTC)

Thoughts: My bullish stance on Monero has been strengthened by the previous week’s price-action. We have seen a successful retest of the breakout level, with higher lows on both XMR/BTC and XMR/USD. The only thing lacking right now seems to be the volume, but market structure continues to point to the upside. I believe we’ll see another test of the ~$150 resistance level this coming week, and, given the current price-action, I’d be surprised if it didn’t finally give way.


Ethereum:

ETH/USD

ETH/BTC

Price: $215.64 (0.0333BTC)

Market Cap: $22.092bn (3,415,137 BTC)

Thoughts: Ethereum is looking super interesting around here. Last week saw a high-volume bounce from long-term support zones in both USD and BTC. In fact, last week closed green on the highest volume in 18 months. That is a very bullish sign, though we remain below the long-term trendline resistance in USD. ETH/BTC looks primed for a move first to 0.036 and then to test the 0.04 resistance. I’d like to see a higher low form on the daily chart this week.


Covesting:

COV/BTC

Price: $0.77 (0.00011934 BTC)

Market Cap:$13.49mn (2,088 BTC)

Thoughts: Covesting is one of only three ICOs I have ever participated in, and it has very little price-history but great market structure. An area of heavy resistance around 12000 satoshis seems to have become strong support. Price is also forming a double-bottom within this support zone. I am expecting a breakout of the trendline resistance on volume in the next two weeks, given that the swing-low at 10k satoshis holds firm.


Gridcoin:

GRC/BTC

Price: $0.019 (297 satoshis)

Market Cap: $7.42mn (1,146 BTC)

Thoughts: Gridcoin is currently sitting with its long-term accumulation zone, between 200 and 500 satoshis. Its all-time low is 198 satoshis, and the recent volume spikes, along with the flattening out of recent price-action, presents a very high reward-to-risk opportunity. I am currently accumulating in anticipation of a break of the first trendline resistance. I would like to see the lows around 270 satoshis hold, though I am happy to be underwater as long as a new all-time low does not form. That would be the point at which the bag is cut. Whilst price remains within this long-term range, I am happy to buy.


Blackcoin:

BLK/USD

BLK/BTC

Price: $0.087 (1301 satoshis)

Market Cap: $6.68mn (1,031 BTC)

Thoughts: I really like how Blackcoin currently looks on both its USD and BTC charts. BLK/USD has formed a low and seems to have bottomed out at the resistance level of its 2-year long accumulation range. This would be an ideal area for a new level of support to form. BLK/BTC is sitting above its all-time low of 1000 satoshis. An accumulation range seems to have formed around this level, between 1000 and 1400 satoshis. The 9-month downtrend also seems to have occurred on almost zero volume, indicating that large holders are not selling. This is something I also spotted in my rich-list case study of Blackcoin. Trendline resistance has been broken on the daily, with short-term resistance sitting around 1750 satoshis; a level I think will be breached in the coming weeks if this current range holds.

That’s the second Market Outlook post done and dusted. Let me know if you’re finding these posts useful and feel free to leave any questions in the Comments.


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Market Outlook #1

It’s been two months since my last long-form post, and I recently had the idea to create a new page for the website titled Market Outlook. Here, I will post detailed weekly market updates, including Bitcoin and altcoin charts and other thoughts on current sentiment, and the page will operate separately to the main blog. The latter will continue to be updated, although perhaps more sporadically, and will feature a mix of short and long-form posts on recent interviews and podcast appearances; methods of analysis; altcoin research; case-studies like that of the Blackcoin rich-list; AMAs; and other miscellaneous posts that I think will be either entertaining or insightful.

Market Outlook, however, will be a weekly post, every Sunday, that primarily provides chart updates on altcoins I’m currently in or that I’m considering more carefully. This will also be the exclusive place to find my updated charts (aside from the odd one I throw up on Twitter now and then); for those of you that are members of the Telegram channel in which I post a stream of my charts, I will be migrating all future posting to this website. It just makes more sense for me to have everything in one place. Plus, the reason I created the Telegram in the first place was to give myself access to a consistent stream of my own charts, so this is just a better way for me to do that. For the 6,000 of you in there, you’ll still be able to follow the progression of those ideas, if you find them valuable; it’ll just be here rather than there.

Now, on with the show.


Market Outlook #1 (9th September 2018)

So, for this first Market Outlook post, there’s five coins in particular I’m paying attention to. And, uncommonly, all five are high-caps. We’ll begin with BTC, of course, and then I’ll be running through Monero, Ethereum, Stratis and Ardor; four coins I have bought positions in recently.

Bitcoin:

Price: $6390

Market Cap: $110.78bn

Thoughts: Bitcoin is in a very precarious position at the moment. Price is hovering above the long-term support that has been formed around $6000, with numerous double-tops and double-bottoms visible on the daily chart, prime for sweeping. It really could go either way from this point, though I am bullish until we see a weekly close below $5800. I find it quite interesting that the majority of the price-action is taking place within the weekly bullish orderblock. Regardless, we should get our answer as to the direction of the next few months of price-action within a fortnight. Cross your fingers for a breakout to the upside and a weekly close above $7500.


Monero:

XMR/USD

XMR/BTC

Price: $106.94 (0.0167 BTC)

Market Cap: $1.75bn (274,374 BTC)

Thoughts: I really like the Monero chart (both, USD and BTC). Price seems to have broken out from long-term downtrends across-the-board, and it has held up well given the recent Bitcoin dump. I’d like to see $100 hold and some volume come into play for the next attempt at breaking through that heavy resistance around $140-150. I bought heavily between $85-95. What I don’t want to see is a daily close below $80/0.013 BTC.


Ethereum:

ETH/USD

ETH/BTC

Price: $206.35 (0.0323 BTC)

Market Cap: $21.02bn (3,289,652 BTC)

Thoughts: The panic is real regarding ETH, especially amongst crypto-Twitter. That’s usually the perfect signal to begin scaling into longer-term positions. And, having cross-compared the ETH charts, what do you know? Price just so happens to be at long-term support for both, USD and BTC. Also, ETH/BTC is approaching the daily bullish orderblock, from which price previously exploded 422%. Corresponding volume has been relatively significant, though I’d imagine we’ll see a little more blood and volume before a genuine bottom is found. However, I’m scaling into an investment-esque position below $200. What I don’t want to see is a weekly close below 0.022 BTC.


Stratis:

STRAT/USD

STRAT/BTC

Price: $1.48 (0.00023102 BTC)

Market Cap: $146.96mn (22,873 BTC)

Thoughts: The fact that STRAT has declined 95% from its ATH in BTC, and has recently broken out of its near-nine-month downtrend, is a good sign, in my opinion, that a bottom has been found. A short-term accumulation range also seems to be forming between 20-25k satoshis. However, when cross-compared with STRAT/USD, price seems to have rejected off of prior support now turned resistance, and may be seeking new lows. I have started buying at around 23k satoshis, and will exit my position if we get a daily close below 18k satoshis. Ideally, the market will see some more volume come in at these prices, and the resistance at $2.20 will be reclaimed.


Ardor:

ARDR/USD

ARDR/BTC

Price: $0.097 (0.00001518 BTC)

Market Cap: $96.88mn (15,160 BTC)

Thoughts: Ardor is rather interesting to me, as it recently experienced ~5% of its circulating supply traded within one day – roughly $9.6mn-worth at the average price during that day. That’s a lot of ARDR and a lot of interest. Price has since experienced a low-volume sell-off, down to the long-term accumulation range. This is a buy signal if ever there was one, and I am buying below 1600 satoshis.

And thus concludes our first Market Outlook.


If you’ve enjoyed this post and want to receive new posts straight to your inbox, I’ve set up a RSS-to-Email feed that will be sent out weekly; every Monday, 12pm. Just submit your email and I’ll make sure you’re included in the list. Cheers.