Market Outlook #9

Market Outlook #9 (4th November 2018)

Today’s Market Outlook sees us return to some short-term analysis of Bitcoin, Ethereum and Monero, followed by a couple of opportunities I’ve spotted in Vertcoin and Shield. In last week’s Market Outlook, I omitted analysis of ‘the usual three’ in place of a handful of altcoins, as market conditions were unusually stable. I can’t say things have gotten much more exciting since, but there are a few points-of-interest to discuss. The exciting price-and-volume-action seems to be occuring more frequently amongst lowcaps and midcaps at present, and, as such, I believe there is a lot to look forward to this winter in that sector of the market. Vertcoin and Shield are just two of the plethora of opportunities I’m seeing on a daily basis.

Anyway, on with the show:

Bitcoin:

Price: $6411

Market Cap: $111.288bn

Thoughts: Bitcoin’s breakout from the long-term trendline resistance has been followed by a low-volume pullback and trendline retest. This is textbook. In doing so, it has receded into the 4H bullish orderblock that led to the initial breakout, and has since formed short-term trendline resistance which it is battling with at present. A break and close on theĀ 4H above $6500 would shift short-term market structure to bullish from its present bearish state.


Monero:

XMR/USD

XMR/BTC

Price: $106.57 (0.0167 BTC)

Market Cap: $1.763bn (276,924 BTC)

Thoughts: XMR/USD, as anticipated in Market Outlook #6, has formed a new range with resistance at prior support of $111. Following Bitcoin, it has since moved back into the 4H orderblock and bounced on gradually increasing volume. At present, we are still very much seeing chop, and the $111 level would need to be reclaimed in order for things to begin looking bullish again. Switching to XMR/BTC, the most important level (0.016 BTC) continues to hold strong, with a new range having formed with it as support and 0.017 BTC as range resistance. As long as that original breakout level holds, market structure is bullish.


Ethereum:

ETH/USD

ETH/BTC

Price: $200.73 (0.0315 BTC)

Market Cap: $20.673bn (3,246,326 BTC)

Thoughts: Lots of clean market structure on ETH/USD. Liquidity has been cleared below and above short-term swing-lows and highs, respectively, and price is currently grappling with a significant level of resistance turned support and once again turned resistance at ~$203. All of this also just happens to be occuring inside a 4H bullish orderblock. ETH/BTC is even more interesting, despite what seems on the surface to be a boring chart. All I needed to highlight here was the longest and tightest range of price-action in recent history. ETH/BTC has been stuck between 0.0306 BTC and 0.032 BTC for over 3 weeks; a range of around 4.5%. Extended periods of low volatility are most often followed by extreme volatility…


Vertcoin:

Price: $0.66 (10454 satoshis)

Market Cap: $31.097mn (4,883 BTC)

Thoughts: Vertcoin is among the oldest cryptocurrencies to exist. As I discuss in my book, it was the first coin I ever invested my own money into back in February 2014. It has since experienced numerous market cycles, and I believe we are on the cusp of a new one. Price has dropped off from its winter 2017 highs back to the low of August 2017. A tight range has formed, now lasting 12 straight weeks. Volume is low, but the duration of the range does somewhat make up for this (micro-buying over an extended period of time is one form of accumulation that differs from the high-volume, single-day accumulation seen in other alts recently, like SALT). I doubt there’s been a better reward-to-risk opportunity to buy Vertcoin in a very long time.


Shield:

Price: $0.005 (88 satoshis)

Market Cap: $2.863mn (450 BTC)

Thoughts: The parallels between the Vertcoin chart and this Shield chart are overt, as are the parallels in much of the altcoin market at the moment. Shield is a lower-midcap privacy coin that I wrote about in my book; more specifically, I talked about how I liked its consistency in meeting development deadlines and the specificity of its roadmap. It was, however, too expensive at the time to buy. Shield has fallen around 96% from its January highs, back to levels only traded during the initial months post-launch. It has formed a very tight range lasting almost 2 months despite its low liquidity, and is currently trading abbove its 6-month trendline resistance. As I say, Shield has very low liquidity, and this is likely due to its largest exchange listing being CoinExchange, but I think micro-buying at these levels is a good approach for anyone wanting to enter a position for the next bull cycle; a cycle that presents a near-30x opportunity in BTC.

That concludes the ninth Market Outlook. I hope you’ve found some value in it. As ever, feel free to leave any questions in the Comments and I’ll get back to you.


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Market Outlook #8

Market Outlook #8 (28th October 2018)

Well, it seems the big three that I would usually cover in these posts took the week off. Bitcoin has had one of its least volatile weeks in recent history, and Monero and Ethereum followed suit. So, to prevent today’s Market Outlook from being an utter waste of time, I have decided to make this one an Altcoin Special. I’ll be covering 4 altcoins, from lowcaps to largecaps, all of which seem to me to present huge upside opportunity at current prices. I’ll begin with Stratis, before covering Ubiq and Synereo, and finally a special treat that came onto my radar this week: Musicoin. In last week’s Market Outlook, I talked about the massive opportunity presented by FoldingCoin, and I think Musicoin might actually be an even better buy. But we’ll get onto that later…

First, Stratis:

Stratis:

STRAT/USD

STRAT/BTC

Price: $1.64 (25318 satoshis)

Market Cap: $162mn (25,082 BTC)

Thoughts: Stratis announced this past week that the project is now a Silver Partner of Microsoft. This, naturally, led to a huge buy-up, in which 5% of the circulating supply was traded in 24 hours on Binance alone (~$8mn). Now, this only served to reinforce my thoughts on Stratis, and I have been buying since I first wrote about the coin in Market Outlook #1, almost two months ago. Since then, price has remained within its tight range against USD and BTC, and a near-3-month accumulation range is undoubtedly in play. I believe this past week’s buy-up was merely a precursor to an imminent reversal; a reversal that would be confirmed if price can close above the major support turned resistance around $3 (which is still almost 100% away, currently). There’s a long way to go, for sure, but the signals keep appearing.


Ubiq:

Price: $0.53 (8188 satoshis)

Market Cap: $22.542mn (3,489 BTC)

Thoughts: Ubiq had a very strange moment in its price-history back in April, when 12% of its supply was bought up, but macro sentiment and the pervading bear market seemed to win the fight, and price followed the rest of the market in an extended sell-off. However, even the swiftest of glances at the volume profile on the chart can tell us that there has been almost zero volume on the decline of the past few months, and capitulation seems to have occured on the one steep day of decline towards the end of August.

Since that point, price has consolidated above the 15-month trendline resistance, finding support – strangely enough – at the opening price of Ubiq’s listing on Bittrex. Funny how these things work out, isn’t it? Small volume spikes are beginning to appear within this range, and I believe buys here will be rewarded before the end of the year.


Synereo:

AMP/USD

AMP/BTC

Price: $0.046 (718 satoshis)

Market Cap: $4.65mn (723 BTC)

Thoughts: Synereo is in a very interesting position at the moment. AMP/BTC has seen three consecutive market cycles with lower and lower peaks, forming a trendline resistance that spans two years. Price is also trading a little above its all-time low, and the endpoint of the trendline resistance has arrived. Poloniex delisting AMP sent it down below a short-term level of support, but, in the past week, a sign of renewed interest appeared: 9% of the circulating supply was traded last week (around $420k). That’s a lot of money to throw at a lower-midcap at such a pivotal point in its price-history.

A quick look at AMP/USD also indicates that prices are back within their long-term accumulation range; prices that have been rewarded without fail since Synereo’s inception. Reward-to-risk here is huge, as one could quite easily have a soft stop at a daily close below 500 satoshis (~30%), or you could use a fixed-risk approach like I tend to for lowcaps and midcaps. Comparing the two charts, peaks in AMP/USD have gotten progressively higher whilst the inverse has occured against BTC. I would imagine that, whenever the next cycle occurs, this may rebalance.


Musicoin:

Price: $0.004 (57 satoshis)

Market Cap: $4.159mn (646 BTC)

Thoughts: Finally we come to what I feel is the highest reward-to-risk opportunity I’ve seen in a while; or at least one of a handful. There is very little I need to paint on the chart except that over a third of the supply was traded in the past two weeks, with 20% being traded a few days ago. This amounts to around $1.7mn of MUSIC that exchanged hands recently. Couple this with the fact that price is trading ~10% above its all-time low, and has been holding that level for 10 weeks now, and you have a strong case for buying.

There is one weakness that I must point out, however, and that is the constant supply emission. Roughly 1.6mn MUSIC come into existence daily, or ~580mn a year. This equals to an annual inflation rate of a little over 50%. Now, this is by no means a deal-breaker, especially given the upside potential, but it’s something to consider. At current prices, daily supply emission is 0.91 BTC or a little under $6,000. To put this in perspective, MUSIC has traded an average of $80,782 daily for the past month. Its average daily volume covers its average daily supply emission by over 1300%.

I hope this eighth Market Outlook has been informative. I rather enjoyed not analysing BTC, ETH and XMR for once. Feel free to post any questions in the Comments and I’ll get back to you.


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Market Outlook #7

Market Outlook #7 (20th October 2018)

This seventh Market Outlook comes to you a day early, as I’ll be away tomorrow, but, trust me, it’s a good one; and there’s certainly plenty to talk about. I’ve been off the grid for the past three days, and it seems a lot has ocurred, particularly concerning volume across-the-board. In fact, one of the two smaller altcoins that I’ll be covering has exhibited a similar signal to that of SALT in last week’s Market Outlook; SALT has since moved ~50%. As per usual, I’ll take a look at the past week’s movements in Bitcoin, Monero and Ethereum. The two smaller alts in question are Covesting and FoldingCoin.

Let’s crack on.

Bitcoin:

Price: $6587

Market Cap: $114.166bn

Thoughts: Tether, without doubt, played a large part in the price-action over the past few days, with an 8% drop in the ‘stablecoin’ causing a massive spike in BTC/USD on Bitfinex, and a mass price disparity across exchanges. However, news is often just the justification for price-action, and, as I mentioned in Market Outlook #6, we were most definitely due some volatility. This volatility caused a breakout above long-term trendline resistance, with price closing above the resistance on the daily, as can be seen on the first chart. Liquidity was dipped into above recent highs, and price has since dropped off, right back to the trendline. This low-volume pullback and retest seems to be succesful, for now, as price has rebounded a little after the initial retest. The breakout itself was also on the highest volume Bitfinex has had in months.

I have marked out many significant short-term levels on the 4H, to illustrate how often support has become resistance and vice-versa in recent price-history. Given the movements in price and volume over the past few days, it would seem to me that we are indeed on the cusp of a longer-term reversal.


Monero:

Price: $104.03 (0.0161 BTC)

Market Cap: $1.707bn (265,219 BTC)

Thoughts: Monero continues to hold the range it has formed, with the movements since August now looking very much like a bottom is in. The initial high-volume breakout above the multi-month downtrend has been followed by a low-volume pullback, and price has now consolidated above $100. This is, of course, the level to watch; any sustained movement below would negate this premise and new lows would likely be imminent.

But, with this range continuing to be held, a breakout to the upside is far more likely, in my opinion. Also, we saw a high-volume buy-up on Bitfinex this past week: though related to the Tether situation, this provides further confirmation that smart money is accumulating within this new range. I’ve marked out a significant level of resistance from this time last year (the final level to give way prior to the bull-run of Dec/Jan)… eerily close to the new support that has formed, isn’t it?


Ethereum:

Price: $207.07 (0.0318 BTC)

Market Cap: $21.263bn (3,275,416 BTC)

Thoughts: Zooming out on ETH/USD paints a picture of prime opportunity. Price has remained above the 5-month trendline resistance, and Bitfinex just experienced its equal highest volume for Ethereum (both instances within weeks of each other). Around 1% of the circulating supply (~$210mn) was traded during this 24-hour period… on one exchange… ’nuff said.


Covesting:

Price: $0.79 (12203 satoshis)

Market Cap: $13.8mn (2,136 BTC)

Thoughts: Though these posts tend to stay away from any fundamental analysis, it is important to note that Covesting received their DLT License this past week; that was the news that acted as the catalyst for a breakout on high volume from a former accumulation range. The breakout comprised of around 5% of circulating supply being traded across a couple of days, with a strong daily close above recent resistance around 10k satoshis. The ~100% candle did, however, rocket price up into another level of resistance at 15k satoshis; a natural area for some consolidation after such a volatile move. The resistance of the previous range could now become a level of support, and perhaps a platform from which we will see further expansion towards the all-time high at ~23k satoshis. In truth, I believe any buys around here or below will likely be heavily rewarded over the coming months.


FoldingCoin:

Price: $0.003 (46 satoshis)

Market Cap: $2.025mn (313 BTC)

Thoughts: And, at last, we come to the potential goldmine. In last week’s Market Outlook, I commented on the volume activity on SALT. Today, we find similar activity on FoldingCoin… 21.4% of the circulating supply was traded in 24 hours (~$422k). Having been delisted from Poloniex, FLDC has suffered an extended decline over the past months, but has consolidated above 40 satoshis on its only exchange, Bittrex. Being listed on only one exchange is not ideal. We don’t like single points of failure. But, the reward is sufficient enough for me to take on this risk. Upside potential is well over 1000% in Bitcoin, let alone USD, and the fact that over a fifth of its supply was traded so recently suggests to me that smart money is buying here, and buying heavily.

That concludes the seventh Market Outlook. I hope you’ve found some value in it. Let me know your thoughts in the Comments, and I’ll do my best to answer any questions you might have.


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