Market Outlook #15

Market Outlook #15 (9th December 2018)

Welcome to the fifteenth instalment of the Market Outlook series. We’ve had some noteworthy price-action over the past week across-the-board, with some short-term reversals looking imminent after a period of prolonged bleeding. In today’s post, I’ll be covering Bitcoin, Monero, Ethereum and ZCash.

On with the show:

Bitcoin:

Price: $3628

Market Cap: $63.18bn

Thoughts: I have opted to only post the hourly chart for BTC/USD this week, as this is where all of the action is taking place. Price broke below the support at ~$3750 and made new lows, bottoming out at a little below $3300; all the while, it continued to respect the short-term trendline resistance that had formed. Since finding a local bottom, price has experienced significant volume on two buyups that have caused a series of higher lows and higher highs to form on this time-frame. The local resistance at $3476 has now become support as Bitcoin attempts a breakout from the trendline resistance. All that being said, there is still major resistance ahead at $3750 – an area which remained resistance on the most recent test. What I am looking for is more volume to come in and carry price above this significant pivot level. If we can get a higher time-frame close above $3750, that would open up the likelihood of a move back towards $4400 to target the old range highs that are sitting there. This is a big if, but if it plays out, we could well see a short-term reversal, which I would imagine will bring the rest of the market up with Bitcoin. One supporting factor to this scenario is that peak selling volume occured on the initial drop to $3750 back in late November – Bitfinex has since not experienced such a high level of sell pressure. However, failure to crack the ~$3750 resistance would undoubtedly see price trading below $3200 over the coming days.


Monero:

XMR/BTC

Price: $48.10 (0.01326 BTC)

Market Cap: $800.138mn (220,545 BTC)

Thoughts: XMR/BTC recently swept the local low that had held firm for ~3 months previously, but it refused to close the daily candle below that low. Price continues to trade below the trendline resistance, but, when the hourly chart is taken into consideration, it seems as though a bottom is forming at this critical support. Price bounced hard after sweeping the low but ran straight into the level of prior support now turned resistance; it refused to give way. Since, price has formed a higher low and looks to be ready to retest that resistance.


Ethereum:

ETH/BTC

Price: $97.19 (0.02679 BTC)

Market Cap: $10.078bn (2,778,028 BTC)

Thoughts: ETH/BTC has played out very similarly to XMR/BTC over the past week, with price break below the short-term range support and experiencing a significant dump below the local low from September. Unlike Monero, Ethereum did close a daily candle below this low; but, sure enough, the following candle reclaimed the critical support level. Again like Monero, price continues to trade below short-term trendline resistance, but has formed a series of higher highs and higher lows on the hourly chart. ETH/BTC recently traded into the mitigation block at 0.0255 BTC, and looks poised to move back into the range above 0.028 BTC. A higher-time frame close within the range would indicate further upside and a reversal underway.


ZCash:

ZEC/BTC

Price: $61.53 (0.01696 BTC)

Market Cap: $333.091mn (91,811 BTC)

Thoughts: This past week, ZCash did what ZCash does best: fuck bulls and bears up in equal measure. On the news of a Coinbase Pro listing, ZCash jumped, moving above range resistance briefly before being swatted down again; but not before forming an equal ‘double top’ around 0.0223 BTC. Price then dumped straight back into the range and further, making a new all-time low against Bitcoin. This move swept the equal ‘double bottom’ that had formed at 0.016 BTC, but the daily candle closed bullish. Price has since formed a short-term uptrend. It remains to be seen whether that move was a stop-hunt or the beginnings of further downside, as price has yet to retest the support turned resistance at 0.01806 BTC. If ZCash can close the daily above this level, I believe new highs will be seen soon after.

That concludes this fifteenth Market Outlook. I hope you’ve enjoyed the read. Let’s cross our fingers for the bullish price-action that seems overdue over the next week.


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Market Outlook #14

Market Outlook #14 (2nd December 2018)

Welcome to the fourteenth Market Outlook. In today’s post, I’ll be covering the past week’s price-action in Bitcoin, Monero and Ethereum, as usual, as well as taking a look at Waves. I hope you enjoy the read!

Bitcoin:

Price: $4166.42

Market Cap: $72.51bn

Thoughts: In last week’s Market Outlook, I expected a relief rally to $4200. This past week has seen the recent Bitcoin capitulation come to a momentary pause. Price found a bottom above $3600, and has since formed a short-term range between that bottom and $4450. The Daily chart shows that we have seen the most volume on Bitfinex since February, with price also refusing to close inside the Daily bullish orderblock. Further, looking back at the prior two weeks of price-action, there is a an area of illiquid movement between $5-5.4k; an upside breakout from this range would lead to that inefficiency being filled in, I would imagine. Now, looking at the 4H chart, we can see that price has broken above the short-term trendline resistance on significant volume. The range of price-action now has several swing-highs and swing-lows yet untouched, thus providing no clear indication of direction. The decreasing volume recently would suggest that the short-term bullish momentum may soon end and price may dip below $3940 back into the orderblock. However, whilst price remains above this level, I would expect the multitude of untouched swing-highs above $4450 to be the next point-of-interest.


Monero:

XMR/USD

XMR/BTC

Price: $59.83 (0.01437 BTC)

Market Cap: $994.14mn (238,793 BTC)

Thoughts: Monero’s Daily charts against both Bitcoin and the Dollar are rather simple and telling. Looking at XMR/USD, price has traded into an area of prior resistance from last summer, with it looking as though it has turned support. To deal with the bearish scenario firstly, a break of the low that has formed at $59 would see price swiftly reach for support at ~$46. That being said, if this current low can hold, I can see a move back towards ~$83 to test the support now turned resistance. The XMR/BTC Daily chart reinforces this potential footpath for price, as we can see price has traded into a Daily bullish orderblock and is currently failing to close above short-term trendline resistance. A close above this resistance on significant volume would indicate that the bottom is in. Further confirmation of this would come with a Daily close above the pivot area. However, if price continues to trade below this trendline, the lows at 0.013 BTC would be in play. I’m sure we’ll find out soon enough…


Ethereum:

ETH/USD

ETH/BTC

Price: $117.28 (0.0281 BTC)

Market Cap: $12.144bn (2,917,195 BTC)

Thoughts: ETH/USD on the Daily time-frame has one particular point-of-interest from the past couple of weeks: a period of the highest-ever traded volume on Bitfinex. Such significant volume is usually indicative of the height (or depth) of capitulation; and thus the level of prior resistance at ~$100 from May 2017 seems to have become a short-term bottom, at the very least. Looking at ETH/BTC on the 4H chart, it does seem as though this theory holds true. Volume has been decreasing for the past two weeks despite price dropping into the 4H bullish orderblock. I would expect a bounce soon and an attempt at closing the 4H above 0.0293 BTC – this would confirm a short-term bullish reversal.


Waves:

WAVES/BTC

Price: $1.51 (36246 satoshis)

Market Cap: $150.9mn (36,246 BTC)

Thoughts: Waves is a beautiful sight to behold. The dowtrend on near-zero volume culminated in a spring and breakout on high volume. Price has since continued to climb and is making its way towards short-term resistance at ~41k satoshis. A close on the Daily above this level would open up further upside towards the significant support turned resistance at 50k satoshis. A reversal is certainly well underway…

I hope this fourteenth Market Outlook has proved somewhat useful. Feel free to leave any questions in the Comments section and I’ll get back to you as best I can.


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Market Outlook #13

Market Outlook #13 (25th November 2018)

What a crazy week we’ve had across-the board. In this 13th instalment of the Market Outlook series, I’ll be dissecting the bloodbath that has ensued over the past few days in Bitcoin, Monero and Ethereum. I’ll also be taking a look at the super interesting price-action currently occuring in XRP, as well as highlighting one altcoin that seems to be looking bullish despite macro market conditions: Stakenet.

N.B: I’ve used log charts for a lot of this post primarily to improve the visibility of the moves.

Bitcoin:

Price: $3871.90

Market Cap: $67.344bn

Thoughts: Firstly, let’s take a second to appreciate that Bitcoin has dropped by more than 40% in two weeks… okay, second over. I hope that you guys are all still alive, and, more importantly, in a position to capitalise on prices that we haven’t seen since Q3 2017.

Now, the first chart I’ve posted is a simple fractal from 2014/15. The only reason I’ve posted this is so that we can visualise the price drop in percentage-terms and map it out to this year, to at least give an estimate as to what could be considered a ‘cheap’ price going forward. Those that bought BTC in 2015 at an 85% or greater discount from the all-time high were maximally rewarded when the subsequent bull cycle began. If we use a similar discount from the January highs of ~$20k, we’d need to see sub-$3k prices to capture maximal returns when the next bull cycle begins. This is a simplistic perspective using the fractal, but it is useful when used in conjunction with the subsequently printed price-action charts.

So, this past week has seen price drop into a Weekly bullish orderblock that has remained untouched for over a year. This is significant. Zooming into the Daily chart, we can see that price has also traded within the Daily bullish orderblock. There is some probability that any calls for new lows could be answered with a reversal from current prices, given this higher time-frame confluence. When we look at the 15-minute chart, we can also see the beginnings of a short-term reversal, with price breaking market structure to the upside and respecting the breaker. This is indicative of a potential relief rally to the $4.2-4.3k area. However, this is only valid whilst the breaker remains intact. If the breaker gives way, new lows are highly probable.

However, given the fractal we mentioned earlier that would price ‘cheap’ Bitcoin below $3k, what would draw price to such levels? Well, the level of prior resistance turned support at around $3k is what led to a continuation of the momentum that pushed prices to just shy of $20k in January. Hence, there is a great deal of liquidity resting below that swing-low. Price has already swept the stops below $5400 without there being sufficient momentum for a reversal, so the next obvious place for price to seek out would be those lows below $3k. There is also an untested Weekly bullish orderblock resting just below that level at ~$2.5k. *If* we do not see a sustained reversal from within the current orderblock, this is where I expect price to move towards. There has, however, been significant trading volume this week – the highest since in 8 months on Bitfinex – and, as such, I wouldn’t rule out a longer-term reversal forming from these levels.

Either way, if you have capital set aside for future investment, scaling into spot Bitcoin from here seems a no-brainer with a sufficient time-horizon.


Monero:

XMR/USD

XMR/BTC

Price: $57.06 (0.01485 BTC)

Market Cap: $947.042mn (246,547 BTC)

Thoughts: Monero has swept the Weekly swing-low against the Dollar at just shy of $65. This low had been untouched for 13 months. Price has traded into a level of prior resistance at $58, though I would be surprised to see anything more than a short-term bounce at these prices. This is primarily because of the meaty Weekly bullish orderblock sitting sitting at $45. Against BTC, Monero is still riding the two-year uptrend, and is currently experiencing a slow bleed towards the Daily bullish orderblock at 0.014 BTC. This level has confluence with the two-year trendline support, and I do not anticipate the ~0.013 BTC lows to give way easily. Short-term support has become resistance at 0.0155 BTC and price continues to trade below its short-term trendline resistance.


Ethereum:

ETH/USD

ETH/BTC

Price: $110.03 (0.02856 BTC)

Market Cap: $11.379bn (2,954,347 BTC)

Thoughts: Well, where Ethereum seemed to be positioned so strongly just a couple of weeks ago, it now looks the weakest against the Dollar. There are very few higher time-frame levels of support on ETH/USD. The most significant ones are at $95, $59 and ~$49. These latter two levels are around a 50% drop away still, and are situated around the next Weekly bullish orderblock. That would be a huge drop given where BTC/USD and ETH/BTC are sitting. It would either imply another 50% drop in Bitcoin’s price (if ETH/BTC is stable), which, whilst not improbable, I find highly unlikely; or it would mean ETH/BTC breaks a number of critical support levels, which is more probable.

However, this past week’s dump has meant that the Weekly swing-low that formed in July 2017 has now been swept, and there are a number of reasons to think that we’ll find some support at the levels highlighted on the Daily chart. The ~$100 level is an area of prior resistance that seems to be holding for now, whilst $92 is the next Daily bullish orderblock. I would expect this area to provide at least some short-term relief. That being said, there is an untouched pool of stops resting below $77 with highly illiquid price-action below it that price may seek to fill in. The following level of support would be the prior resistance at $59…

Looking at the 4H ETH/BTC chart, we can see that price has traded into a 4H bullish orderblock, with prior support at 0.0308 BTC now resistance. The short-term trendline resistance has, however, been broken. If price can sustain this breakout and remain above the orderblock, I’d expect a recovery to that former support level.


XRP:

XRP/USD

XRP/BTC

Price: $0.35 (9112 satoshis)

Market Cap: $14.15bn (3,674,547 BTC)

Thoughts: Ah, XRP – the coin that everyone loves to hate. Despite this communal loathing, no one can deny how fascinating the price-action of XRP has been over this past week. Where most altcoins have fallen against BTC due to the recent volatility, XRP has rallied. This hasn’t, of course, stopped it falling against the Dollar.

There is no doubt that XRP/BTC is exhibiting bullish market structure, with higher-highs and higher-lows in continual formation since early October. A bounce at current levels of prior resistance potentially turned support would imply an imminent new high above ~11k satoshis. When you look at this in conjunction with XRP/USD, there seems to be a highly profitable opportunity in play. The Weekly chart for XRP against the Dollar shows that price is trading inside a Weekly bullish orderblock and between two levels of prior resistance. Dropping down into the Daily chart shows that price has swept the liqudity below $0.372 (also a level of prior resistance turned support) and caught a bounce from the equilibrium (50%) of the orderblock (which is also a level of prior support). This is a low-risk, high-reward play.


Stakenet:

XSN/BTC

Price: $0.10 (2621 satoshis)

Market Cap: $7.449mn (1,938 BTC)

Thoughts: After publishing my Coin Report on Stakenet last week, I hadn’t actually paid any attention to its recent price-action. It seems that Stakenet gives zero fucks about what Bitcoin is doing…

The Daily chart is printing what looks to be a series of extended higher-lows and higher-highs, but price has run into resistance at ~3200 satoshis. However, volume has been rising for three months straight and levels of prior resistance are becoming short-term support. *If* this momentum can be sustained and the Daily can close above 3200 satoshis, there’s a likelihood that Stakenet is beginning a new bull cycle.

I hope you’ve enjoyed this 13th instalment of Market Outlook. Stay safe out there.


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