Market Outlook #33

AD: Before I begin this post, I’d like to briefly mention Bitcoin.Live, who are sponsoring my blog.

Bitcoin.Live offers regular, detailed content on their free-to-access blog, created by a panel of analysts (including Peter Brandt), and covering all manner of market-related topics. I found both the video material and the blog posts to be genuinely insightful, with many differing analytical perspectives available for viewers and readers. The platform also offers premium content for paying subscribers who find value in the free material, with daily videos, alerts and support provided. Check it out and bookmark the blog.


Market Outlook #33 (5th May 2019)

Hello, and welcome to the 33rd Market Outlook. It’s been a couple of weeks since my last post and it seems I have missed a great deal. As such, this week’s post will be longer than usual, and will be split into two parts; one of which will be published later this week and will exclusively cover smaller altcoins.

In this post, I’ll be covering everything I have yet to update for Bitcoin, Ethereum and Monero, plus I’ll take a look at Dash.

Before I begin, I’d also like to quickly mention that I will be transforming the current weekly email that goes out on Mondays in its entirety. It is, at present, just a RSS feed of recent blog posts, which is rather limited in its usefulness. Instead, I’ll be combining a round-up of the past week’s blog posts with brief thoughts, updates, short-term trade ideas and more. I’ve not really decided on the format of this yet, but just know that it’ll be changing moving forward.

Anyways, let’s crack on:

Bitcoin:

BTCUSDWeekly

BTCUSDWeekly2

BTCUSDDaily

BTCUSDDaily2

BTCUSD4H

Price: $5782

Market Cap: $102.245bn

Thoughts: So, as you may have already noticed, there is a lot to work through here, and I’ve provided 5 charts to supplement a top-down analysis of Bitcoin. In the previous Market Outlook, I mentioned that I thought price would make a move for $5750, coming into an area of significant resistance, prior to any rejection. This did indeed occur over the past couple of weeks, and now I am awaiting a breakdown, as I still expect a retest of the 200-day moving average before we start breaking up above $6500.

Looking at the first Weekly chart provided, we can see the full price-history of the previous two cycles, beginning in 2014. What is uncanny is the familiarity with which price is moving, relative to the previous bear market of 2015. Looking specifically at the summer of 2015, we can clearly see a breakout above the 20-week moving average when it and the 200-week moving average tightened, which led to a break above trendline resistance and a subsequent rally into historical support turned resistance. Sound familiar? Look now at the past few months of price-action and we see the same pattern emerging. In 2015, however, this breakout rally was followed by a rejection and retracement back below both moving averages briefly, before price bottomed out and begun the new bull market.

I have applied a projection of the same fractal to current price-action for some clarity. A similar (though likely not exact) rejection would send price back below $4000 to retest the 200MA, followed by a swift rejection and a strong move above $6000 in August/September of this year. This has been my expectation for a while now, as often outlined on Twitter; that Q3 will be the beginning of the new bull market for Bitcoin.

Now, looking at the Daily charts for Bitcoin, I have provided a line chart of the same period of price-history as the Weekly to point out another interesting pattern: the interaction of the 200-day and 360-day moving averages.

Back in early 2014, Bitcoin bounced off the 360MA before it gave way in July/August, leading to a crossing of the 360MA above the 200MA for the first time since the previous bull market began. What followed was months of blood, culminating in a bottom being found in 2015. Remember the breakout rally of 2015 I mentioned earlier? It was capped by the 360-day moving average, which led to the rejection and subsequent bottom forming. Now, in late 2015, Bitcoin rallied hard and began its new bull market, and shortly afterwards the 360MA crossed below the 200MA for the first time since the bear market began. Their paths did not converge again until the summer of 2018, and we all know what followed. And once again, the recent breakout rally has sent price up into the grasp of the 360MA, where it now sits, consolidating…

I expect we shall see another crossing of these two significant moving averages before the new bull market begins, and I expect it to occur in late Q3.

Now, looking at the second Daily chart printed above, we can see bearish divergence in the RSI as price comes into significant overhead resistance. The 4H chart depicts the path I expect price to take moving forward; one more leg up before a breakdown.

Further, it is clear to see that early shorts have been getting murdered during this recent rally whilst longs have been left untouched. Best believe there’s no free lunches in this game.


Ethereum:

ETH/USD

ETHUSDWeekly

ETHUSDDaily

ETHUSD4H

ETH/BTC

ETHBTCWeekly

ETHBTCDaily

Price: $163.32 (0.02825 BTC)

Market Cap: $17.301bn (2,993,348 BTC)

Thoughts: Unlike my expectations for Bitcoin, my expectations for altcoins over the past couple of weeks were flat-out wrong, Ethereum included. My time away seemed to spark an abrupt sell-off in alts, with ETH/BTC leading the charge as it tanked below range support at 0.0315 BTC.

Let us first examine ETH/USD, however. Looking at the Weekly chart, one thing to note is that each successive higher-low over the past few months has occurred on declining volume; perhaps indicating an exhaustion of buyers as price lingers around overhead resistance – watch out below, trendline buyers.

The Daily chart depicts the 200MA supporting price, for now, but much of the bullish market structure that was working in Ethereum’s favour is now lost, as we see a series of lower-highs and lower-lows forming at present. Further, if Bitcoin retraces back towards its original breakout level at $4200, then Ethereum is going to be dragged down with it, perhaps even more aggressively if ETH/BTC takes a further tumble too.

There are two areas of interest in this scenario: the first is below $123, where there is an untouched level of support; the second is $100. I suspect we shall see both of these levels ran through before we find that cyclical double-bottom form. I doubt we will see $80 again, as there is very little significant support below it until around $50, but everything above it is likely fair game.

Now, looking at the Weekly chart for ETH/BTC, there is quite an interesting price-action fractal playing out, wherein a swing-high is followed by a lower-high, a subsequent bearish break of market structure and a move into a Weekly orderblock. If this pattern is anything to go by, we want to be buyers of the second wick into the orderblock, not the first, likely around 0.0265 BTC, as depicted in the Daily chart.


Monero:

XMR/USD

XMRUSDWeekly

XMR/BTC

XMRBTCDaily

Price: $67.15 (0.01161 BTC)

Market Cap: $1.138bn (197,069 BTC)

Thoughts: Ah Monero; a range long held but now almost lost. There is a potential spring forming below range support, but I exited my trading position at 0.012 BTC and so am only currently holding cold-storage Monero. What I would like to see before re-entry is what I have depicted on the XMR/BTC chart, if this is to be the spring. I would rebuy on a reclamation of 0.0125 BTC. However, if Daily candles start to close below range support at 0.0116 BTC, we will likely see 0.011 BTC tested and a new range begin to form with 0.0116 becoming resistance.


Dash:

DASH/USD

DASHUSDDaily

DASH/BTC

DASHBTCDaily

DASHBTCDaily

Price: $119.23 (0.02064 BTC)

Market Cap: $1.048bn (181,410 BTC)

Thoughts: So, in the previous Market Outlook, I mentioned that Dash was in a low-risk, high-reward position; sadly, the 9R trade with a very tight stop at 0.022 BTC was crushed as the altcoin market fell apart whilst I was away.

Oddly, Dash is in a similar position now, sitting on strong support at 0.0205 BTC, and I initially took a similar trade but have exited based on recent analysis. Looking at DASH/USD, we can see similar untouched support levels to that of ETH/USD, and I have depicted the path I expect Dash to take moving forward. A sweep underneath trendline support would flush out buyers before a new bull market begins.

Looking now at the Weekly chart for DASH/BTC, it is hard not to be bearish, as price failed to regain the lost long-term trendline support-turned=resistance at 0.026 BTC. This coincided with a level of historical horizontal resistance. Looking at the Daily chart, it seems price will be making a trip towards 0.019 BTC soon. Again, I expect the December low 0f 0.0176 BTC to hold but there is likely 6-8% further downside to be expected of DASH/BTC.

Now, saying that, I point readers to a few charts I posted on Twitter recently, that lead me to believe Dash will outperform other largecaps when the bull market begins.

And that concludes this very long Market Outlook. I’ll see you tomorrow for some equally lengthy analysis of smaller altcoins.


If you’ve enjoyed this post and want to receive new posts straight to your inbox, I’ve set up a RSS-to-Email feed that will be sent out weekly; every Monday, 12pm. Just submit your email and I’ll make sure you’re included in the list. Cheers.

Market Outlook #32

AD: Before I begin this post, I’d like to briefly mention Bitcoin.Live, who are sponsoring my blog.

Bitcoin.Live offers regular, detailed content on their free-to-access blog, created by a panel of analysts (including Peter Brandt), and covering all manner of market-related topics. I found both the video material and the blog posts to be genuinely insightful, with many differing analytical perspectives available for viewers and readers. The platform also offers premium content for paying subscribers who find value in the free material, with daily videos, alerts and support provided. Check it out and bookmark the blog.


Market Outlook #32 (21st April 2019)

Hello, and welcome to the 32nd Market Outlook. In today’s post, I’ll be covering the past week’s price-action in Bitcoin, Ethereum and Monero, as well as providing an update on Dash.

This will be the last blog post for the next 10 days, as I’ll be away on holiday from tomorrow – a long overdue one, at that.

Anyway, let’s crack on:

Bitcoin:

BTCUSDDaily

Price: $5320

Market Cap: $93.939bn

Thoughts: As anticipated in last week’s Market Outlook, Bitcoin found a local bottom around $4900 and made an attempt at breaking through the local high at ~$5450. Price has faltered a little here, as would be expected given the short-term resistance, but it does look to me as though we will make a move towards $5750 soon before we see any significant rejection. Following this, I expect price to return to retest the 200-day moving average, and perhaps even the range resistance at ~$4350; the perfect buying opportunity, as one cycle ends and another begins…

Things rarely play out that smoothly, of course, but that is the general course I expect price to take over the coming weeks.


Ethereum:

ETH/USD

ETHUSDDaily

ETHUSD4H

ETH/BTC

ETHBTCDaily

ETHBTC1H

Price: $170.82 (0.03223 BTC)

Market Cap: $18.052bn (3,408,885 BTC)

Thoughts: There is rather a lot more going on with Ethereum, at present, and it continues to look bullish mid-term. Looking at ETH/USD on the Daily timeframe, we can see that price is lingering above the reclaimed support at $166, having found new resistance at $189. Volume has been declining throughout April, indicating an imminent, significant move. Looking at the 4H chart, we can see that the lows at $160 were swept this past week, following which price bounced hard, turning market structure bullish with a close above $170. I expect we’ll see the weekly low formed early this coming week, with bullish momentum continuing into next weekend.

Now, looking at ETH/BTC, we can clearly see that price is range-bound between significant support at 0.0306 BTC and resistance at 0.0353 BTC. April has seen declining volume, and I expect we’ll see a bullish breakout above range resistance in May. The hourly chart shows us that price has returned to the bottom of this recent range; providing a low-risk entry for those looking to get long.


Monero:

XMR/BTC

XMRBTCDaily

Price: $68.12 (0.012868 BTC)

Market Cap: $1.153bn (217,897 BTC)

Thoughts: After the false breakout at the beginning of the month, Monero has returned to its range-bound price-action, though support remains firm at 0.0125 BTC. The 200-day moving average continues to cap price, and volume remains strong. One day…


Dash:

DASH/BTC

DASHBTCdaily

dashbtc4h

Price: $121.15 (0.02287 BTC)

Market Cap: $1.061bn (200,429 BTC)

Thoughts: In Market Outlook #27, I gave my trade setup and price trajectory for Dash, and it played out rather perfectly. Now, we find Dash sitting at 10-week trendline support, the 200-day moving average and inside the consolidation range that preceded the previous leg up. There is clearly a low-risk buying opportunity here if we are to expect further bullish movements in Dash, and the most risk-averse trade setup would be to buy here with a stop-loss on a Daily close below 0.02 BTC and a target of 0.029 BTC, giving around 2.5 reward-to-risk. For those who are comfortable with more risk, a much tighter stop can be set on a Daily close below 0.022 BTC and the same target, giving almost 9 reward-to-risk.

And that concludes this week’s Market Outlook. I hope you’ve found some value in the read, and I’ll see you all in May for the next post.


AD: I’d like to conclude this blog post by thanking one of the sponsors of the blog: Nexo.

Nexo is the foremost crypto-backed loans platform, allowing you to get cash without selling your crypto. Nexo delivers you cash or stablecoins via 45+ different currencies direct to your wallet or bank account.

The platform has already processed over $300m, with all client funds secured by BitGo and insured by Lloyds London. Nexo also offers interest on stablecoin deposits of 6.5%, with full withdrawal flexibility; providing a consistent revenue stream for your unused crypto.


If you’ve enjoyed this post and want to receive new posts straight to your inbox, I’ve set up a RSS-to-Email feed that will be sent out weekly; every Monday, 12pm. Just submit your email and I’ll make sure you’re included in the list. Cheers.

Market Outlook #31

AD: Before I begin this post, I’d like to briefly mention Bitcoin.Live, who are sponsoring my blog.

Bitcoin.Live offers regular, detailed content on their free-to-access blog, created by a panel of analysts (including Peter Brandt), and covering all manner of market-related topics. I found both the video material and the blog posts to be genuinely insightful, with many differing analytical perspectives available for viewers and readers. The platform also offers premium content for paying subscribers who find value in the free material, with daily videos, alerts and support provided. Check it out and bookmark the blog.


Market Outlook #31 (14th April 2019)

Welcome to the 31st Market Outlook. It has been a relatively subdued week for Bitcoin but a bloodier week for alts across-the-board…

In today’s post, I’ll be covering the past week’s price-action in Bitcoin, Ethereum and Monero, as usual, plus – though it pains me to say it – presenting an opportunity in Verge.

Bitcoin:

Price: $5092

Market Cap: $89.796bn

Thoughts: After the fireworks of the prior week, this past week has been, as expected, somewhat subdued. That said, price did sweep above last week’s highs to form a new local high below $5500 before being slapped back down into the short-term range between $4800-$5300.

Looking at the Daily chart, we can see the strength in this recent rally, with higher timeframe closes above range resistance, trendline resistance and the 200-day moving average all in the space of a few days. RSI topped out at the highest levels seen since December 2017 when price came into significant resistancea at ~$5400. Even heavier resistance lies ahead in the $5800-6000 area, and it seems as though price is consolidating above the 200MA for the time being.

Looking now at the 4H chart, I have crudely depicted the path I expect Bitcoin to take over the coming weeks. Of course, this may not play out exactly as illustrated, but my general thesis is that we still have some room for another leg up towards the real resistance around $5800, from which we will see a strong rejection and a move back towards the original breakout level (range resistance) around $4500. We may even dip below this level (though it would now be expected to be a level of support) to trap breakout+retest buyers, but ultimately I believe the trajectory moving towards Q3 will be upwards.


Ethereum:

ETH/USD

ETH/BTC

Price: $164.03 (0.03231 BTC)

Market Cap: $17.319bn (3,413,062 BTC)

Thoughts: ETH/USD, after breaking above the supposed ‘double-top’ resistance at $170, found new resistance at an old level of support around $190. Price also broke out above the 200-day moving average and has remained above for the past week. Looking at the 4H chart, I expect ETH/USD to follow a similar path to Bitcoin, but to outperform it due to movements in ETH/BTC, as I shall explain shortly. However, in ETH/USD, we can clearly see a short-term range has been formed, and the bearish scenario would be for this to play out as a bear flag; as such, I’ll be watching for a 4H close below range support at ~$161 to indicate further downside towards the 200MA at ~$150. The declining volume on the retracement on both pairs suggests to me that more upside is the more likely path, however.

Now, looking at ETH/BTC specifically, there are many mixed signals being given here. We have a bearish breakout below trendline support and a retest of range resistance at 0.0353 BTC that failed to give way; we have price consolidating at the 200-day moving average; and we have declining volume on the recent dump. In my opinion, as long as 0.0318 BTC level remains firm as it has done thus far, we will see a bullish reversal and a reclamation of that 0.0353 BTC area.


Monero:

XMR/BTC

Price: $64.95 (0.01279 BTC)

Market Cap: $1.098bn (216,484 BTC)

Thoughts: After months of consolidation, we have seen two polar opposite weeks of price-action in Monero, with one week indicating a high-volume breakout above the range and the past week confirming it as a false breakout. Price is, in short, back where it has been since December; trading between 0.012 BTC and 0.0136 BTC. The 200-day moving average continues to cap price, but short-term support at 0.0125 BTC is holding firm.


Verge:

XVG/USD

XVG/BTC

Price: $0.0086 (169 satoshis)

Market Cap: $136.003mn (26,801 BTC)

Thoughts: Now, Verge is often met with equal revulsion as XRP in this space, but, as a speculator, I care not for ideology and only for opportunity. This is a solid, low-risk, high-reward opportunity. Verge has been range-bound between 140-240 satoshis for over 35 weeks, with patches of high volume during that time. As such, it is likely that this is the accumulation range preceding the next bull cycle. Further, XVG/USD has broken above 16-month trendline resistance and range resistance, with the 200MA currently supporting price.

The current price of 169 satoshis offers us a maximum of ~30% downside risk with a soft stop-loss on a Daily close below 120 satoshis (to account for any illiquid movements). In return for that risk, we have an initial target of the prior support turned resistance at 340 satoshis; a 100% return. As such, this trade is a minimum 3:1 reward-to-risk setup. Tighter stops can increase this drastically. Either way, it seems too good to pass up…

And that concludes this week’s Market Outlook. I hope you’ve found some value in the read.

As ever, feel free to leave any comments and questions below.


AD: I’d like to conclude this blog post by thanking one of the sponsors of the blog: Nexo.

Nexo is the foremost crypto-backed loans platform, allowing you to get cash without selling your crypto. Nexo delivers you cash or stablecoins via 45+ different currencies direct to your wallet or bank account.

The platform has already processed over $300m, with all client funds secured by BitGo and insured by Lloyds London. Nexo also offers interest on stablecoin deposits of 6.5%, with full withdrawal flexibility; providing a consistent revenue stream for your unused crypto.


If you’ve enjoyed this post and want to receive new posts straight to your inbox, I’ve set up a RSS-to-Email feed that will be sent out weekly; every Monday, 12pm. Just submit your email and I’ll make sure you’re included in the list. Cheers.