Market Outlook #18

Market Outlook #18 (13th January 2019)

Welcome to the 18th Market Outlook. After a few weeks of breakout rallies, short-term reversals and general upwards momentum, this past week has found the market, as a whole, losing steam and dropping off. With that said, local lows across-the-board remain intact, as we shall see.

In today’s Market Outlook, I’ll take a look at the past week’s price-action in Bitcoin, Ethereum and Monero, followed by a quick glance at an opportunity in Cloakcoin.

Bitcoin:

Price: $3672

Market Cap: $64.188bn

Thoughts: So, in last week’s Market Outlook, I suggested we price may seek out the equal highs that were resting around $4100 on resolution of the ascending triangle that was forming; and we certainly cleared those out this past week. However, price then swiftly broke down, confirming the upside breakout as false, and has since dropped off towards a significant historical level at ~$3700. This level has been support, resistance and support again all within the past couple of months…

Convention would suggest that this level would be one where we would catch a bounce, but price has lingered and consolidated here. With the swing-low from December 28th still pretty much intact – and price hovering above a Daily and 4H Breaker – I’d be surprised if we didn’t drop further over the next few days, towards $3550, before finding a real direction. Given the sheer number of equal highs on the 4H and Daily charts, I’m inclined to believe that any dump from here will be swift and temporary, serving as the catalyst for further upside above and beyond $4400 over the coming weeks.

I’ve depicted two possible scenarios from here on the Daily chart (one bullish, one bearish); both see price trade under $3600 soon, but how price reacts around that Daily Breaker is what I believe will indicate the path going forward. A sustained loss of the $3500 level would likely see new lows; a bounce in the Breaker would likely see price trade above the double top at $4400 shortly after.


Ethereum:

ETH/BTC

Price: $125.97 (0.03433 BTC)

Market Cap: $13.144bn (3,582,297 BTC)

Thoughts: As anticipated last week, Ethereum’s recent rally lost its momentum and price has dropped off ~20% against BTC. However, the market structure clearly remains bullish on the higher time-frame charts. The Weekly depicts a strong break of bearish market structure, followed by a retracement (this past week) towards the breakout level. The Weekly Breaker is being respected, though I wouldn’t be surprised to see a small further drop towards 0.033 BTC; the close price of the Breaker.

The Daily chart shows a sweep of the swing-low at 0.0354 BTC into the Daily Breaker and Daily Bullish Orderblock. Key support lies at 0.0313 BTC, and this is a long opportunity if ever I saw one. Only a higher time-frame close below this support level would invalidate the current bullish market structure. I expect further upside before the end of the month.


Monero:

XMR/USD

XMR/BTC

Price: $45.30 (0.01234 BTC)

Market Cap: $756.413bn (206,066 BTC)

Thoughts: Monero continues to move slowly relative to Ethereum, and remains range-bound. The Adam & Eve bottom I expected to form has not, and the rally I expected to come for XMR this past week also has not. Major resistance against Bitcoin remains at 0.0136 BTC, and a Daily close below 0.012 BTC would indicate new lows incoming.

XMR/USD depicts a cleaner breakdown from the uptrend on high volume, and I would expect price to at least retest the trendline support as a level of resistance. This would see price trade around $52 before either dropping off to form new lows below $40 or reclaiming the ascending triangle and breaking above ~$57 resistance.


Cloakcoin:

CLOAK/BTC

Price: $1.11 (30251 satoshis)

Market Cap: $5.82mn (1,586 BTC)

Thoughts: Cloakcoin is a low-supply privacy coin that has been around almost as long as I have. I have traded it numerous times in the past, but it hasn’t looked buy-worthy since late 2017… until now. Price has dropped off from highs formed in April/May 2018 towards a significant historical area of resistance, now turned support. Further, the actual opening price of the Cloakcoin market on Bittrex (from June 2014) has formed the range resistance; a range which has been in play for 5 months. Short-term resistance is around 38000 satoshis, with range support at ~25000 satoshis. Upside potential from current prices is over 1000%. A Weekly close below 24000 satoshis would negate this range and thus the trade, but that gives ~20% of downside risk versus a great deal more upside…

That concludes this week’s Market Outlook. I hope you’ve enjoyed the read. Please feel free to leave to any comments and questions below!


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Market Outlook #17

Market Outlook #17 (6th January 2019)

Happy New Year, everyone! Welcome to the 17th Market Outlook, and the first of 2019. Having taken a two-week break over Christmas, it seems I missed a lot of interesting action; in particular, that of Ethereum, as we’ll discuss shortly. Overall, it looks to me like the signals that appeared inĀ  early December in anticipation of short-term reversals are finally bearing fruit across-the-board…

In today’s post, I’ll cover the past couple of weeks of price-action in Bitcoin, Ethereum and Monero, as well as Stratis and Komodo. Let’s crack on:

Bitcoin:

Price: $3901

Market Cap: $68.135bn

Thoughts: So, it’s been a good three weeks since the last Market Outlook, in which I suggested that a short-term bottom was nearby. Since then, Bitcoin has moved from ~$3200 to just shy of $4400 and back to around $3700. Price then consolidated after the period of volatility and has now found short-term resistance at $4115 (a level of prior resistance), with higher-lows forming with each test; this, in essence, is an ascending triangle, but volume is currently flat, so we can’t be 100% confident in a breakout to the upside.

That being said, the 1H chart clearly shows a lot of swing highs in the $4100 region that remain unswept, and with price having already cleared the swing-low at $3875, it is likely that we will see continued bullish price-action. However, I wouldn’t rule out the possibility of a false breakout to the downside, with price looking to trade inside the 1H bullish orderblock at $3825 prior to making any further upwards progress…

Ethereum:

ETH/BTC

Price: $153.49 (0.0399 BTC)

Market Cap: $15.943bn (4,162,730 BTC)

Thoughts: Ethereum has experienced a tremendous reversal, having swept the September lows at ~0.027 BTC early in December. The Weekly shows us that price failed to break the long-term support at ~0.023 BTC, and the reluctance to make new lows has led us to a near-60% rally against Bitcoin. In the process of rallying, ETH has broken through numerous short-term resistance levels on significant volume, with the most important move occuring towards the end of 2018, when price broke above 0.034 BTC, thus breaking the bearish market structure. Price has since held that level, moving up through the resistance at 0.0375 BTC. Volume is declining on the Daily, however, suggesting that this current leg may be overextended. I would expect a period of relief, in which price moves back towards 0.036 BTC; but, make no mistake, it is very much likely we have found the cyclical bottom for ETH/BTC.


Monero:

XMR/BTC

Price: $50.35 (0.0315 BTC)

Market Cap: $840.794mn (219,575 BTC)

Thoughts: Monero has had a more relaxed few weeks, but also seems to have found a bottom. The Weekly shows us that price remains within the bullish orderblock from October/November 2017, failing to break below the support at 0.0111 BTC despite the extended downtrend. This downtrend has now been broken, as is clear from the Daily, and it looks as though an Adam & Eve bottom is forming with a neckline at ~0.0135 BTC. I expect Monero to take the reigns from Ethereum soon and rally towards the support turned resistance at 0.016 BTC. But first, we need a close above 0.0141 BTC to confirm the bullish market structure.


Stratis:

STRAT/BTC

Price: $1.07 (27939 satoshis)

Market Cap: $106.086mn (27,705 BTC)

Thoughts: Any regular reader of this blog will know that I am very fond of Stratis, having mentioned it in multiple posts. Around Christmas, Stratis experienced a huge buyup, after spending some time trading below range support. In that period, around a third of Stratis’ circulating supply was traded across all exchanges, and price blasted through the consolidation range, up to a peak around 42500 satoshis. In doing so, it cleared major resistance below 30k satoshis on significant volume. I would expect this area between 27-30k satoshis to become a new level of support. The recent drop-off after the peak has occured on ever-decreasing volume, suggesting that a new swing-low should soon form and, with it, a new leg up should begin.


Komodo:

KMD/BTC

Price: $0.77 (19975 satoshis)

Market Cap: $85.268mn (22,239 BTC)

Thoughts: It is somewhat rare to spot such an obvious buy as Komodo. Price has been in a large range for a long time, with rising levels of volume and clear accumulation taking place. Range resistance continues to hold at 23k satoshis, but this is one to buy on any movement back towards range support around 16k satoshis. There’s really very little else to say about this one except that the opportunity is made overt by the chart.

That concludes this instalment of Market Outlook. I hope you’ve enjoyed the read and found something of value here. Please feel free to leave any questions or comments below!


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Market Outlook #16

Market Outlook #16 (16th December 2018)

Hello, and welcome to the sixteenth instalment of Market Outlook, and the final blog post for 2018. As of tomorrow, I will be taking the remainder of the year off. That being said, I’ve got a lot of interesting material planned for the New Year, including more Coin Report and Market Outlook posts, but also some one-off ideas, like a lengthy discussion of ‘risk’ and all that comes with it; an article on passive income in the cryptosphere and its numerous pitfalls; and a post detailing my thoughts on why the price paid is the most important part of any trade or investment, particularly in this space.

But, for today, I will be covering the past week’s price-action in Bitcoin, Monero and Ethereum, as well as taking a look at how beautifully Waves has played out. I hope you enjoy the read!

Bitcoin:

Price: $3308

Market Cap: $57.645bn

Thoughts: In last week’s Market Outlook, I mentioned that a failure to breakout above the $3750 resistance would likely send price towards $3200. From the 4H chart, we can see that a double top formed at this resistance level, and price has since remained below the short-term trendline resistance, dumping below the local low from last week. Zooming out to the Weekly, we can see that price is in a precarious position, sitting just above a swing-low that has been untouched for over a year at ~$3000. There is a high likelihood that we, at least momentarily, sweep those lows before forming any significant reversal, especially considering the orderblock that lies below it. However, volume has been decreasing as new lows are made, implying that sell pressure is decreasing and that a bottom is likely nearby…


Monero:

XMR/USD

XMR/BTC

Price: $39.82 (0.01218 BTC)

Market Cap: $662.031mn (202,881 BTC)

Thoughts: Monero has reached an interesting spot against the Dollar this past week, finally dipping into the weekly bullish orderblock and trading below the equilibrium (50%) point of the range that formed back in summer 2017. When price last traded in this area, it was shortly followed by an injection of heavy volume and significant upwards momentum. Looking at XMR/BTC, the Weekly has broken below trendline support for the first time in two years, sweeping below the low that formed late in August, into a bullish orderblock. This breakdown from such a significant area of support is not great for bulls… but it could be price manipulation to coax retail holders into capitulation. We’ll see what the case is over the next week or two; if price can catch a bounce on high volume and break above the trendline resistance and back above the trendline support, this was likely a false breakout; if price fails to find support here, it is quite likely that we see 0.01 BTC broken.


Ethereum:

ETH/USD

ETH/BTC

Price: $86.64 (0.02655 BTC)

Market Cap: $8.995bn (2,757,251 BTC)

Thoughts: ETH/USD continues to experience decreasing volume alongside its decreasing prices, with peak sell pressure occuring weeks ago. The 4H chart shows a breakout above short-term trendline resistance, but the equal lows make me wary. I wouldn’t get too hopeful for a reversal until the Daily closes above $100. ETH/BTC, however, is in a great area for buyers, trading at an area of signficant prior resistance turned support. Price is still trading below trendline resistance, but a period of high volume during the dump to 0.0245 BTC indicates that this may have been the bottom against Bitcoin. Short-term support has formed at 0.0258 BTC, but it will take a higher time-frame close above 0.028 BTC before this could be confirmed as a bottom.


Waves:

WAVES/BTC

Price: $2.47 (75502 satoshis)

Market Cap: $246.898mn (75,502 BTC)

Thoughts: I first mentioned Waves in this Market Outlook series in the 10th instalment, when it formed a double bottom below 25k satoshis. Following this, I mentioned it a couple of weeks later, in the ‘Altcoin Special‘ post. Prices then bounced from the low-volume selloff, breaking out of the downtrend on high volume. In the 14th Market Outlook, prices were above 35k satoshis, and we have since seen a continuation of the reversal, with a steep increase over the past week. Waves is now trading above 75k satoshis, over 3x where it was in that first post, in the depths of a macro bear market. Opportunities are everywhere for further price-action such as this to follow. Selling any positions in Waves here is probably a wise idea, given the heavy resistance ahead.

That concludes this sixteenth Market Outlook. I hope you’ve found some value in it. See you in the New Year!


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