The following is just a brief digest of something I’ve noticed regarding altcoins and Ethereum:
It seems to me that there is a case to be made for a potential eth-season that may already be underway; something resembling the growth in ALT/BTC markets during Bitcoin’s 2014/15 bear market.
Firstly, let’s take a look at Bitcoin during that period:
As is evident from the chart, Bitcoin dropped around 85% in 413 days, and then was range-bound for 291 days before breaking out, re-testing the resistance level of the range and continuing on its eventual course to new all-time highs.
Now, let’s compare the price-action to ETH at present:
Ethereum has fallen ~88% in 243 days (around 59% of the time it took Bitcoin to fall to its lows). If we map that forward, we can assume price to be range-bound below ~$275 for around 171 days. Of course, price-action never works out quite that precisely, but it’s worth keeping in mind.
Now, the interesting bit:
The 2014 Bitcoin bear market was a period in which the goal was to accrue more Bitcoin via altcoins. This made sense as Bitcoin was cheap. In the first half of 2017, this modus operandi continued to be successful; Bitcoin was still relatively cheap. Then, the winter of 2017 arrived and many of us that have been involved in the space since 2013/2014 neglected to consider that perhaps this approach was no longer the most effective. After all, Bitcoin was now above $10k and was most certainly no longer cheap. Regardless, many (myself included) stuck to our tried-and-tested methods and devoted the vast majority of our attention to ALT/BTC charts and prices. After all, we wanted more Bitcoin, didn’t we?
This was where many of us went wrong. Bitcoin was expensive. What we should have wanted was dollars. Had we the perspective or the foresight to recognise this, we would have been paying far more attention to ALT/USD charts…
January 2018 came along, and the market was in euphoria. The issue was that ALT/BTC charts had barely budged. Our portfolios had grown exponentially in dollar-terms, but we wanted Bitcoin, right? This disregard was the downfall of many in the following weeks, and I too would have been far better off had I had this perspective from the outset.
Flash-forward to the present day, and we once again find ourselves in an intriguing scenario. Bitcoin has fallen from its highs of ~$20k to roughly $6k. With it, the altcoin market has fallen ~87%. Ethereum has fallen a little more than that. Ethereum is cheap. Should we now be looking towards ALT/ETH charts and prices, where we once were concerned with ALT/BTC and ALT/USD? I think the following charts illuminate a little on this matter:
Now, I don’t know about you, but it sure looks to me as though an eth-season is underway. Perhaps the current goal should be to accrue ETH.
What do you think?
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