Market Outlook #32

AD: Before I begin this post, I’d like to briefly mention Bitcoin.Live, who are sponsoring my blog.

Bitcoin.Live offers regular, detailed content on their free-to-access blog, created by a panel of analysts (including Peter Brandt), and covering all manner of market-related topics. I found both the video material and the blog posts to be genuinely insightful, with many differing analytical perspectives available for viewers and readers. The platform also offers premium content for paying subscribers who find value in the free material, with daily videos, alerts and support provided. Check it out and bookmark the blog.


Market Outlook #32 (21st April 2019)

Hello, and welcome to the 32nd Market Outlook. In today’s post, I’ll be covering the past week’s price-action in Bitcoin, Ethereum and Monero, as well as providing an update on Dash.

This will be the last blog post for the next 10 days, as I’ll be away on holiday from tomorrow – a long overdue one, at that.

Anyway, let’s crack on:

Bitcoin:

BTCUSDDaily

Price: $5320

Market Cap: $93.939bn

Thoughts: As anticipated in last week’s Market Outlook, Bitcoin found a local bottom around $4900 and made an attempt at breaking through the local high at ~$5450. Price has faltered a little here, as would be expected given the short-term resistance, but it does look to me as though we will make a move towards $5750 soon before we see any significant rejection. Following this, I expect price to return to retest the 200-day moving average, and perhaps even the range resistance at ~$4350; the perfect buying opportunity, as one cycle ends and another begins…

Things rarely play out that smoothly, of course, but that is the general course I expect price to take over the coming weeks.


Ethereum:

ETH/USD

ETHUSDDaily

ETHUSD4H

ETH/BTC

ETHBTCDaily

ETHBTC1H

Price: $170.82 (0.03223 BTC)

Market Cap: $18.052bn (3,408,885 BTC)

Thoughts: There is rather a lot more going on with Ethereum, at present, and it continues to look bullish mid-term. Looking at ETH/USD on the Daily timeframe, we can see that price is lingering above the reclaimed support at $166, having found new resistance at $189. Volume has been declining throughout April, indicating an imminent, significant move. Looking at the 4H chart, we can see that the lows at $160 were swept this past week, following which price bounced hard, turning market structure bullish with a close above $170. I expect we’ll see the weekly low formed early this coming week, with bullish momentum continuing into next weekend.

Now, looking at ETH/BTC, we can clearly see that price is range-bound between significant support at 0.0306 BTC and resistance at 0.0353 BTC. April has seen declining volume, and I expect we’ll see a bullish breakout above range resistance in May. The hourly chart shows us that price has returned to the bottom of this recent range; providing a low-risk entry for those looking to get long.


Monero:

XMR/BTC

XMRBTCDaily

Price: $68.12 (0.012868 BTC)

Market Cap: $1.153bn (217,897 BTC)

Thoughts: After the false breakout at the beginning of the month, Monero has returned to its range-bound price-action, though support remains firm at 0.0125 BTC. The 200-day moving average continues to cap price, and volume remains strong. One day…


Dash:

DASH/BTC

DASHBTCdaily

dashbtc4h

Price: $121.15 (0.02287 BTC)

Market Cap: $1.061bn (200,429 BTC)

Thoughts: In Market Outlook #27, I gave my trade setup and price trajectory for Dash, and it played out rather perfectly. Now, we find Dash sitting at 10-week trendline support, the 200-day moving average and inside the consolidation range that preceded the previous leg up. There is clearly a low-risk buying opportunity here if we are to expect further bullish movements in Dash, and the most risk-averse trade setup would be to buy here with a stop-loss on a Daily close below 0.02 BTC and a target of 0.029 BTC, giving around 2.5 reward-to-risk. For those who are comfortable with more risk, a much tighter stop can be set on a Daily close below 0.022 BTC and the same target, giving almost 9 reward-to-risk.

And that concludes this week’s Market Outlook. I hope you’ve found some value in the read, and I’ll see you all in May for the next post.


AD: I’d like to conclude this blog post by thanking one of the sponsors of the blog: Nexo.

Nexo is the foremost crypto-backed loans platform, allowing you to get cash without selling your crypto. Nexo delivers you cash or stablecoins via 45+ different currencies direct to your wallet or bank account.

The platform has already processed over $300m, with all client funds secured by BitGo and insured by Lloyds London. Nexo also offers interest on stablecoin deposits of 6.5%, with full withdrawal flexibility; providing a consistent revenue stream for your unused crypto.


If you’ve enjoyed this post and want to receive new posts straight to your inbox, I’ve set up a RSS-to-Email feed that will be sent out weekly; every Monday, 12pm. Just submit your email and I’ll make sure you’re included in the list. Cheers.

Market Outlook #31

AD: Before I begin this post, I’d like to briefly mention Bitcoin.Live, who are sponsoring my blog.

Bitcoin.Live offers regular, detailed content on their free-to-access blog, created by a panel of analysts (including Peter Brandt), and covering all manner of market-related topics. I found both the video material and the blog posts to be genuinely insightful, with many differing analytical perspectives available for viewers and readers. The platform also offers premium content for paying subscribers who find value in the free material, with daily videos, alerts and support provided. Check it out and bookmark the blog.


Market Outlook #31 (14th April 2019)

Welcome to the 31st Market Outlook. It has been a relatively subdued week for Bitcoin but a bloodier week for alts across-the-board…

In today’s post, I’ll be covering the past week’s price-action in Bitcoin, Ethereum and Monero, as usual, plus – though it pains me to say it – presenting an opportunity in Verge.

Bitcoin:

Price: $5092

Market Cap: $89.796bn

Thoughts: After the fireworks of the prior week, this past week has been, as expected, somewhat subdued. That said, price did sweep above last week’s highs to form a new local high below $5500 before being slapped back down into the short-term range between $4800-$5300.

Looking at the Daily chart, we can see the strength in this recent rally, with higher timeframe closes above range resistance, trendline resistance and the 200-day moving average all in the space of a few days. RSI topped out at the highest levels seen since December 2017 when price came into significant resistancea at ~$5400. Even heavier resistance lies ahead in the $5800-6000 area, and it seems as though price is consolidating above the 200MA for the time being.

Looking now at the 4H chart, I have crudely depicted the path I expect Bitcoin to take over the coming weeks. Of course, this may not play out exactly as illustrated, but my general thesis is that we still have some room for another leg up towards the real resistance around $5800, from which we will see a strong rejection and a move back towards the original breakout level (range resistance) around $4500. We may even dip below this level (though it would now be expected to be a level of support) to trap breakout+retest buyers, but ultimately I believe the trajectory moving towards Q3 will be upwards.


Ethereum:

ETH/USD

ETH/BTC

Price: $164.03 (0.03231 BTC)

Market Cap: $17.319bn (3,413,062 BTC)

Thoughts: ETH/USD, after breaking above the supposed ‘double-top’ resistance at $170, found new resistance at an old level of support around $190. Price also broke out above the 200-day moving average and has remained above for the past week. Looking at the 4H chart, I expect ETH/USD to follow a similar path to Bitcoin, but to outperform it due to movements in ETH/BTC, as I shall explain shortly. However, in ETH/USD, we can clearly see a short-term range has been formed, and the bearish scenario would be for this to play out as a bear flag; as such, I’ll be watching for a 4H close below range support at ~$161 to indicate further downside towards the 200MA at ~$150. The declining volume on the retracement on both pairs suggests to me that more upside is the more likely path, however.

Now, looking at ETH/BTC specifically, there are many mixed signals being given here. We have a bearish breakout below trendline support and a retest of range resistance at 0.0353 BTC that failed to give way; we have price consolidating at the 200-day moving average; and we have declining volume on the recent dump. In my opinion, as long as 0.0318 BTC level remains firm as it has done thus far, we will see a bullish reversal and a reclamation of that 0.0353 BTC area.


Monero:

XMR/BTC

Price: $64.95 (0.01279 BTC)

Market Cap: $1.098bn (216,484 BTC)

Thoughts: After months of consolidation, we have seen two polar opposite weeks of price-action in Monero, with one week indicating a high-volume breakout above the range and the past week confirming it as a false breakout. Price is, in short, back where it has been since December; trading between 0.012 BTC and 0.0136 BTC. The 200-day moving average continues to cap price, but short-term support at 0.0125 BTC is holding firm.


Verge:

XVG/USD

XVG/BTC

Price: $0.0086 (169 satoshis)

Market Cap: $136.003mn (26,801 BTC)

Thoughts: Now, Verge is often met with equal revulsion as XRP in this space, but, as a speculator, I care not for ideology and only for opportunity. This is a solid, low-risk, high-reward opportunity. Verge has been range-bound between 140-240 satoshis for over 35 weeks, with patches of high volume during that time. As such, it is likely that this is the accumulation range preceding the next bull cycle. Further, XVG/USD has broken above 16-month trendline resistance and range resistance, with the 200MA currently supporting price.

The current price of 169 satoshis offers us a maximum of ~30% downside risk with a soft stop-loss on a Daily close below 120 satoshis (to account for any illiquid movements). In return for that risk, we have an initial target of the prior support turned resistance at 340 satoshis; a 100% return. As such, this trade is a minimum 3:1 reward-to-risk setup. Tighter stops can increase this drastically. Either way, it seems too good to pass up…

And that concludes this week’s Market Outlook. I hope you’ve found some value in the read.

As ever, feel free to leave any comments and questions below.


AD: I’d like to conclude this blog post by thanking one of the sponsors of the blog: Nexo.

Nexo is the foremost crypto-backed loans platform, allowing you to get cash without selling your crypto. Nexo delivers you cash or stablecoins via 45+ different currencies direct to your wallet or bank account.

The platform has already processed over $300m, with all client funds secured by BitGo and insured by Lloyds London. Nexo also offers interest on stablecoin deposits of 6.5%, with full withdrawal flexibility; providing a consistent revenue stream for your unused crypto.


If you’ve enjoyed this post and want to receive new posts straight to your inbox, I’ve set up a RSS-to-Email feed that will be sent out weekly; every Monday, 12pm. Just submit your email and I’ll make sure you’re included in the list. Cheers.

Coin Report #19: Own

AD: Before I begin this post, I’d like to briefly mention Bitcoin.Live, who are sponsoring my blog.

Bitcoin.Live offers regular, detailed content on their free-to-access blog, created by a panel of analysts (including Peter Brandt), and covering all manner of market-related topics. I found both the video material and the blog posts to be genuinely insightful, with many differing analytical perspectives available for viewers and readers. The platform also offers premium content for paying subscribers who find value in the free material, with daily videos, alerts and support provided. Check it out and bookmark the blog.


Welcome to the 19th Coin Report. In today’s report, I will be assessing the fundamental and technical strengths and weaknesses of Own. This will comprise of an analysis of a number of significant metrics, an evaluation of the project’s community and development and an overview of its price-history. The report will conclude with a grading out of 10. I hope you enjoy the read!

Introduction

Unlike every other Coin Report thus far published, this one is the product of a private commission for a research report on Own. An individual investor requested a report to be produced for their own purposes, and then granted consent for the research to be compiled and published as a Coin Report.

As such, this is even lengthier than the usual reports, as I go into more depth across an even broader range of topics relevant to the project, including STOs; a meaty enough topic on its own.

Prior to conducting this research, I had never heard of Own, nor spent any serious thought on the subject of security tokenisation. I am very much glad that this opportunity was presented, as I now have a much firmer grasp of the current ongoings in the world of STOs, and I’m equally glad to have been granted permission to share my findings with you.

I believe this will be one of the more broadly informative Coin Reports you read, and, as there is indeed a lot to get through, I’ll refrain from rambling any longer.

I hope this report will prove objective where it must be and fair on more subjective matters. For those who’d like to learn a little more about Own prior to reading this report, here are some primary links:


Fundamental

General:

Name: Own

Ticker: CHX

Algorithm: N/A

Sector: Equity Tokenisation

Exchanges: HitBTC, Hotbit, IDEX, Bancor & CoinExchange

Launch Overview

Own was founded in July 2017, under the original name of Chainium. The company rebranded to Own in 2018, following their ICO in March 2018, following which CHX – an ERC-20 token – was created and distributed . The ICO concluded on April 4th, 2018, raising 8,990 ETH, with an average price of 0.00017 ETH per CHX. ~69mn CHX were distributed of the 100mn available, with the remainder being burned.

CHX is in its early stages of a token swap to the native Own blockchain, commencing Q2, with an end date of 1st June 2019.

Price-History Overview

With the CHX token only created around 12 months ago, there is less than a year of price-history available to analyse. That said, Own is clearly in the midst of its first bull cycle at the moment, having made an all-time high against Bitcoin of ~9k satoshis in February 2019; simultaneously, it made an all-time high against the Dollar of $0.34.

Project Overview

Perhaps the hottest topic since the ICO boom of 2017/18 is the subsequent development of STOs (Security Token Offerings), with a great deal of anticipation present about the growth of this marketplace over the coming years, with wild estimations of upwards of $24tn (yes, trillion) comprising the value of the tokenised asset market by the end of the next decade.

Own is looking to capitalise on this opportunity by providing an end-to-end financial asset tokenisation platform, facilitating the issuance, regulatory compliance and management of security and equity tokens for businesses.

Given the extreme lucrativeness of such a marketplace, there is fierce competition beginning to appear.

Let us see how Own fares, beginning with some Metric Analysis:


Metric Analysis:

Below are listed a number of important metrics, all of which are accurate as of 9th April 2019. For anyone reading this who has yet to read a Coin Report, it might be worth reading this section of the first report, where any potentially unfamiliar terms are explained. For any terms or metrics specific to this post, I will provide explanations besides the figures.

Metrics:

General:

Price: $0.23 (4378 satoshis)

Exchange Volume: $2,635,217

Circulating Supply: 76,608,117 CHX

Total Supply: 168,956,522 CHX

Maximum Supply: 168,956,522 CHX

% of Max. Supply Minted: 100%

Network Value: $17.463mn (3353.90 BTC)

Network Value at Max. Supply: $38.515mn

Category: Midcap

Exchange Volume-to-Network Value: 15.09%

Average Price (30-Day): $0.21

Average Exchange Volume (30-Day): $1,659,438

Average Network Value (30-Day): $15.798mn

Average Exchange Volume (30-Day)-to-Network Value: 10.5%

Volatility* (30-Day): -0.03848

Average Daily On-Chain Transactions (30-Day): 110

Average Daily Transactional Value** (30-Day): $4.177mn (source)

NVT*** (30-Day): 4.18

Average Daily Active Users (30-Day): 50 (source)

% Price Change USD (30-Day): +10.2%

% Price Change USD (1-Year): N/A

USD All-Time High: $0.34

% From USD All-Time High: -33.7%

Premine % of Max. Supply: N/A

Premine Location: N/A

Liquidity (calculated as the sum of BTC in the buy-side with 10% of current price across all exchanges): 5.29 BTC

Liquidity-to-Network Value %: 0.16%

Supply Available on Exchanges: 1,188,189 CHX

% of Circulating Supply Available on Exchanges:  1.55%

*Volatility is calculated by taking the average price over the given time-period, calculating the difference between it and the highest price and it and the lowest price over that same time-period, and multiplying those figures together. The closer to 0, the less volatility during that period, and vice-versa. Read this for more on volatility.

**Transactional Value in $ is calculated by taking the daily transactional value in CHX and multiplying it by price.

***NVT is calculated by dividing the Network Value by the Average Daily Transactional Value. See here for more on NVT.

Supply Emission & Inflation:

Block Reward Schedule: N/A

Average Block Time: N/A

Current Block Height: N/A

Annual Supply Emission: 0

Annual Inflation Rate: 0%

Circulating Supply in 365 Days: 76,608,117 CHX (excluding the release of vested tokens from ICO)

Staking & Masternodes:

Network Staking Weight: N/A

Staking ROI (Annual): N/A (Until Mainnet launched and stabilised ~June 2019)

Masternode Collateral Size: N/A

Masternode Price: N/A

Masternode Count: N/A

Masternode Count Growth (30-Day): N/A

Supply Locked in Masternodes: N/A

Masternode ROI (Annual): N/A

Masternode Reward / Block Reward: N/A

Masternode Network ValueN/A

MNV / Network Value: N/A

Distribution:

Address Count: 2922

Supply Held By Top 10 Addresses*: 7.33%

Supply Held By Top 20 Addresses: 11.04%

Supply Held By Top 100 Addresses: 22.58%

Inactive Address Count in Top 20 (30 Days of No Activity): 16

*As is often the case, there are some addresses that have been discounted and substituted here, as they are owned by exchanges or the team. In this case, the 1st, 2nd and 6th-richest addresses belong to the team, IDEX and Hotbit, respectively. As such, I have discounted them from calculations, replacing them with the subsequent privately-held addresses in the rich-list. For the sake of clarity, the 1st-richest address, owned by the team, controls 55.26% of the total supply of CHX, comprising of tokens from the ICO. The IDEX address contains 4.26% of the supply and the Hotbit address contains 1.01%.

ICO:

The following details were taken from this source.

ICO Token Sale: 28th March 2018 – 4th April 2018

Total Tokens: 200,000,000 CHX

Tokens Available For Sale: 100,000,000 CHX

ICO Price Per Token: $0.07 (0.00017 ETH)

Total Raised: ~8,990 ETH

Tokens Sold: ~69,000,000 CHX

Tokens Burned: ~31,000,000 CHX

Analysis:

As per usual, there’s quite a lot to get through here, but let us begin with the metrics related to transactions, as there is something very surprising to be found here.

Using the Etherscan explorer, I calculated that there were, on average, 110 daily CHX transfers over the past month. What surprised me, however, is that the average daily transactional value of these amounted to $4.17mn. This gives Own a NVT of 4.18, which is unusually low, and, if accurate, indicative of serious undervaluation. Now, my calculations are all done manually, and, if I use CoinPaprika’s data instead, we find the average daily transactional value to be closer to $750k, which would give Own a NVT of around 23.8; a much more reasonable figure and yet one that still indicates relative cheapness.

I am unsure about the reason for such a disparity between my figures and CoinPaprika’s, as I do not know their methodology. I simply calculate the total value of transactions in CHX for a month, divide it by 30 and multiply the result by the price of the token. This is, of course, a more rudimentary means of calculation than other sources may use. Regardless, it must be said that there is clearly non-speculative use of the CHX token taking place.

Moving through the remaining General metrics, I’d like to first highlight Own’s Volatility of -0.03848; a figure that places Own in the middle of the pack of coins previously reported on. This is roughly the same degree of 30-day volatility as NKN and Cashaa.

Now, let’s take a look at the buy-and-sell-side Liquidity metrics:

Own had buy support of around 5.29 BTC across its listed exchanges, equating to 0.16% of its Network Value. This is actually rather weak, placing Own towards the bottom of the list when compared to the other coins featured in these reports. Of course, buy support is extremely dynamic, particularly around current prices in the orderbook; that said, Own’s Liquidity is weaker than most projects reported on.

And how about its sell-side liquidity? Is the lack of buy support mitigated by an equally low desire to sell? Well, I calculated there to be ~1.18mn CHX available to buy on exchanges, equating to 1.55% of the circulating supply. This, again, places Own around the middle of the pack, with less supply available on exchanges than MonetaryUnit, CloakCoin, Bismuth and Bettex, for example, but more available for purchase than Ubiq, Trittium, Bulwark and Cashaa.

However, unlike the majority of coins thus far featured in these reports, Own does not yet facilitate staking nor does it yet have a masternode network (or its equivalent). As such, there are no real profit incentives to deplete sell-side liquidity, thus this is indicative of a strong desire to hold CHX tokens.

Finally, before we move on from evaluating the General metrics, let’s discuss those related to volume:

Own has traded $2.64mn of volume over the past 24 hours, equating to a whopping 15.09% of its Network Value. For those that have been reading the blog for some time, you’ll know that I like to see a figure of 1% or greater Exchange Volume-to-Network Value (ideally Average Exchange Volume-to-Network Value) as an indication of interest, so 15.09% is insane. Further, it’s not a one off, as Own has traded $1.66mn on average daily for the past month, equating to 10.5% of its Average Network Value for the same period. This is by far the highest Average EVNV of any coin I’ve previously reported on and there is undoubtedly significant interest in Own, at present.

Now, this must taken in consideration with the fact that it is not traded on any of the Real 10 (so calculated by the work from Bitwise); thus there is a strong possibility that a large part of this volume may be a symptom of wash-trading.

Now, moving onto supply emission, as CHX was created via ICO, all available tokens are already minted, with some locked and some in circulation. However, there is zero further supply emission to be had; all that will change with regards to circulating supply is the portion of the total supply that is vested and thus released (or rewarded to the network’s validators once the mainnet is launched, as we shall discuss a little later).

Given the above, the annual inflation rate must be calculated as 0%, providing no headwinds for price growth in the future. With no tokens left to come into existence – and the sustained high volume being traded – I do not doubt that CHX can sustain current prices; in fact,any decrease in price must be a symptom of distribution from a holder (be it a large holder or a small fish). It is the nature of the distribution that tells us whether we should be buying or selling.

And so, let us take a look at the Own rich-list:

There are 2922 holders of CHX currently, with 7.33% of the total supply controlled by the top 10 addresses; 11.04% controlled by the top 20; and 22.58% controlled by the top 100. I have already pointed out the caveats to this earlier in the report, so I shall refrain from going back over them. Suffice to say, for an ICO, this is quite impressive decentralisation of supply.

And what is the current activity amongst the top 20 richest holders?

Well, the 5th-richest (discount the 3 aforementioned publicly-held addresses – thus, in real terms, the 8th-richest) is in active and heavy accumulation, adding ~750k CHX to his position over the past month. That’s around $140,000-worth of Own. Further, 3 of the top 20 addresses added small amounts to their positions over the past month (between 7k CHX and ~100k CHX). Most importantly, there was no distribution from the top 20 addresses in the past 30 days.

As we will see in the Technical section, price has decreased over the past month by around 25% against BTC. Who was selling? Clearly not the largest holders.

That concludes this section on Metric Analysis. Onto the Own Community:


Community:

There are two primary aspects of community analysis: social media presence and Bitcointalk threads. I’ll begin with the former before moving on to the latter.

Social Media:

Concerning social media presence, there are four main platforms to examine: Twitter, Facebook, Telegram and Discord.

Own is present on all platforms except Discord. To begin, let’s look at the various social metrics that I calculated from the Own Twitter and Facebook accounts:

Twitter Followers: 16,103

Tweets: 1,221

Average Twitter Engagement: 0.4%

Facebook Likes: 33,896

Facebook Posts (30-Day)23

Average Facebook Engagement: 0.01%

As usual, I will be using RivalIQ‘s social benchmark report for evaluation purposes.

Twitter:

Whilst the Own Twitter account does have a large audience, its engagement rate is quite poor relative to other coins. That said, in RivalIQ’s report, we find that the average Twitter engagement rate across all industries is 0.046%, which means that Own’s engagement rate is currently 8.69x greater. Further, the average engagement rate for the Media industry (the most relevant in the report) is 0.013%, thus Own’s is 30.77x greater. Unfortunately, Own’s engagement rate is lower than around 10 other coins that have featured in these reports, placing it joint-4th from bottom.

Facebook:

Now, Facebook, unlike for many cryptocurrencies (but a common occurrence amongst ICOs), is Own’s largest audience, with close to 34,000 Likes. This is twice the audience size of Cashaa; the token with the second-largest Facebook audience from previous reports. Very impressive. They also commit to regular updates, with 23 posts in the past month.

However, this is where the positives come to an end, with a measly 0.01% average engagement rate over the past 30 days. Given the vast size of the audience, one might be able to forgive lower engagement rates, but 0.01% is rather pathetic and highly suggestive of a completely disinterested Facebook following.

Own’s average Facebook engagement rate is also lower than the average across all industries of 0.16%, and lower than the Media industry average of 0.08%. This needs some attention.

Telegram:

The (official) Own Telegram group contains ~5500 members. There is also an unofficial group with over 800 members where discussions can be had on more general topics, as well as on price. However, for the purposes of my research, I have mainly stuck to a detail evaluation of the official group.

The group’s pinned message contains all relevant links, alongside the identities of the core team members to prevent fraudulent behaviour. This is is one of the disadvantages of a Telegram group over a Discord, as much of the important, even critical, information can be lost (even with a pinned message), whereas in a Discord group one often finds clearly segmented sections for each topic.

Nonetheless, the Telegram group is of moderate size – small relative to Own’s other platforms – but the conversation is constant between members, with thousands of messages posted over the past week. This is great to see, and a far-cry from the poor engagement found on their other social platforms. I also found that the CEO makes a concerted effort to respond to questions and make himself known amongst the group’s members, which is promising. Much of the current discussion centres on the upcoming token swap, with CHX migrating from ERC-20 to Own’s native blockchain. This is currently in testnet, with the Mainnet set to go live this quarter. The token swap is due to conclude in June, with all network nodes expected to also be transitioned to the native blockchain by that point. Further, new exchanges are expected to be announced for Own in April.

The community and the team seem to push out regular links to relevant blog posts, with there seeming to be a detailed blog post available for all manner of questions. Within the group itself, however, I also found that Own is expected to have a three-pillar products & services gateway for equity tokenisation, with two pillars already released and in use: Registry (via the Decentralised Share Register > Issuance (via the FAST platform) > and a third, unannounced pillar, which is expected to be a secondary market for security tokens.

Regarding CHX’s use-case amongst all these products and services, I found that the token will be used to reward Validator nodes on the network and delegates via DPOS, following the token swap. Also, a lockup in CHX will be required by a business looking to issue an STO, amounting to 1% of the capital to be raised. Further, all transaction fees will be paid in CHX, whilst clients will deal solely in fiat. Validator nodes will amount to 500,000 CHX.

Reading this, I felt as though more use-cases could be constructed for the token, given the context of the project itself.

That said, the Telegram group was highly informative and engaged.

BitcoinTalk:

The (new) Own BitcoinTalk thread was created on 31st January 2019, and has since generated 63 posts spanning 4 pages in 55 days. This equates to 1.15 posts per day, on average.

The old thread, from when the project was named Chainium, was created on November 20th, 2017, and is still the thread linked to on Coinmarketcap. There have been 22 posts on it in the past 90 days.

Regarding the content of the old thread, much like the Telegram group, the discussion is largely focused on the token swap and the launch of Mainnet. There is also a lot of price discussion, and that’s about all there is.

Moving onto the new thread, it is much more active, with good use of branding in the announcement itself and a plethora of useful links for new users. Within this announcement, token sale statistics are linked for full transparency, as are links to blog posts on use-cases of the token and the company itself. Graphics are provided to ensure accessibility, and this is clearly much stronger than the old thread. Emphasis is placed on the imminent move to the native blockchain, as well as on the implementation of DPOS.

More importantly, information regarding Own’s products and services is visible in the announcement, with a series of Medium blog posts, Q&As and interviews linked below each one to provide further insight. Unlike most announcements on BitcoinTalk, the problem is perhaps an overload of information rather than a lack of it (though, of course, this isn’t really much of a problem for those that want to make informed decisions). Not only does this show a commitment to keeping the community in the loop, but it also shows a commitment to onboarding new potential users.

Regarding the rest of the content of the thread, there are 21 active posters, with lots of genuine interest shown in the project. I discovered that the FAST 2.0 platform launched in February, allowing businesses to issue shares and raise capital whilst remaining fully regulated and compliant inside 10 weeks. Impressive stuff.

YouTube:

Unlike most projects, Own has at least made an effort to harness the power of YouTube in a bid to strengthen its brand identity and grow its community. As such, I have made an effort to spend some time going through the material on their channel.

The channel has 840 subscribers – not a large audience but a solid enough foundation. More impressive, however, is that the channel has 332,000 views despite this small audience. They have uploaded 52 videos in total, with regular uploads being the norm (at least two a month). Of these videos, many are long-form AMAs with the CEO, which is great to see, along with promotional/marketing videos for specific products and services. The most popular video is an introduction to Own that has 123,000 views, in which the viewer finds out about Own’s dual-equity blockchain that provides access to the 99% in business that cannot, for whatever reason, access traditional funding. The 2nd-most popular video is more like an advertisement; one that is well-produced and informative and has 108,000 views. All productions are very well-branded, also.

The MyOWn promotional video is particularly great, being concise, informative and engaging, and, importantly, highlighting the UI/UX of the app for potential new users.

The best video on the channel is perhaps the FAST 2.0 promotional that walks the viewer through the process of issuing a new security token through the platform. The process is incredibly simple and the platform looks great. This does a wonderful job of strengthening the Own brand, in my mind, particularly within the STO domain.

I also watched the most recent AMA with the Own CEO, and this was perhaps the most illuminating part of the research process. There is a clear and palpable understanding of the need to address (and progress) both the crypto-based audience and a wider, more mainstream audience given Own’s aspirations. They are focused on simplifying processes and the copy on their platforms and website, whilst also refining the usability and  performance of the products themselves. They are also working on a foundational ebook on the topic of STOs; this is exactly what is needed to onboard more users and grow, as many new users will be unfamiliar with STOs, and so, providing an  educational resource like this rather than relying on outside sources of information is paramount. Significantly, Own already have 9 “proper” clients for STOs, with “proper” meaning clients that are having a prospectus created with full compliance issuance expected – a process that, as I mentioned earlier, takes 10 weeks. It’s very promising to see that there is demand for the service at the earliest stages of it being released.

Overall, very positive.


Development:

For the following Development analysis, I will be evaluating project leadership, the website, the roadmap, the whitepaper, the wallets and finally providing a general overview:

Project Leadership:

There are 14 core team members listed on the website, along with 7 advisors. There are 7 contributors to the Github.

Of the core team, there are 3 co-founders with experience in software engineering, global equities and general technology development. Other roles including a Managing Director, Head of Business Development, Head of Marketing, UX Designer, Blockchain Developer, Web/App Developer, Senior Software Architect, Business Analyst, Software Developer, Content Strategist and a Junior Web Developer.

Overall, there is clear strength, breadth and balance to be found here.

Website:

www.weown.com

The website is very professional, as I would expect from an ICO. It is well-designed and features strong branding. The homepage displays all products and services available, and the company’s aim is clear to all visitors:

“Tokenizing technology for financial services.”

The copy is concise and informative but also engaging, which is great to
see and somewhat rare amongst altcoin websites. The UI/UX is easy-to-navigate and smooth, and the navigation menu, which is often my biggest problem with websites in this space, is very much useful and relevant. There is also another menu available that directs visitors to relevant information by customer type (Market Operators, Business, Investor and Developer), further ensuring accessibility.

The current products and services are highlighted (DSR; FAST; MyOwn; and white-label blockchain services). Further, there is an option to Book A Demo. All social links are available at the bottom of the page.

There is both a native blog and a Medium blog, featuring regular, long-form content across all possible manner of topics to keep users and investors informed. There is also a Day in the Life series focused on individual team members to allow users to get to know the team and their responsibilities, creating more trust and confidence in the company itself.

There is a beginner’s guide that I highly recommend reading.

Our Story contains Own’s roadmap, as well as detailed information on the core team. Overall, the website does a very good job of emphasising the benefits of the Own ecosystem and how its products and services would be of use to different kinds of users. I am very impressed – this is perhaps the best website of any coin previously reported on.

Roadmap:

https://weown.com/our-story

There is a brief visual roadmap provided on this page, featuring a history of Own from July 2017 to March 2019. No future roadmap is provided and there is a serious lack of detail here:

The official launch of the company was in August 2017, under the name of Chainium. The ICO began in March 2018, along with the opening of offices in Liechtenstein, Bosnia and the United Kingdom. In July 2018, the FAST 1.0 platform was released, and in September 2018, the Decentralised Share Register was launched under the Own brand-name. There were hundreds of sign-ups in the first few weeks. In November 2018, Own won the Most Innovative Company at Sarajevo Unlimited, and, in December 2018, the MyOwn app was released. February 2019 saw the launch of FAST 2.0, and March 2019 has seen the establishment of the STO Alliance.

Overall, good for a brief history of the company but gives no sense of vision or direction and lacks detail. Strange, given the quality of the website.

Whitepaper:

https://weown.com/uploads/editor/files/Own%20Platform%20Architecture%20-%20Technical%20Whitepaper.pdf

The whitepaper is 13 pages in length, and, though it states it is a technical whitepaper, it is largely jargon-free and accessible. It introduces the Own platform and the custom-built blockchain, whilst emphasising the disadvantages of the traditional model and how Own seeks to improve upon them; these include trust, efficiency, speed, costs, permanence, and accessibility. Graphics are also included to ensure user comprehension.

The paper also introduces the idea of dual blockchains connected by ‘smart oracles’, allowing communication between private and public data. The three layers to the Own platform are mentioned here: storage on the dual blockchain, services using APIs and SDKs, and the app tier.

There are also two types of nodes in the Own ecosystem: Validator and Client. Validators create new blocks and handle consensus and clients view and submit transactions. The network will use Delegated-Proof-of-Stake for consensus. CHX, as a token, will incentivise node operators and work as a utility token for transaction prioritisation.

In general, the whitepaper is easy to understand, even for those unfamiliar with the technology.

Overall, informative and concise, though it could include more about future plans and the vision, as well as information on the team.

Wallets:

All ERC-20-enabled wallets, until token swap to native blockchain.

General:

“Own is on a mission to change the equity market, giving market operators
and enterprises greater control over the way they raise capital and manage financial assets – cutting out costly, time-consuming intermediaries in the process.”

That pretty much sums up the Own identity and vision. I’d like to add that the project is clearly seeking to create an end-to-end equity issuance and servicing platform to compete with IPOs and private funding, which is where the Financial Asset Security Tokenization (FAST) platform comes into play. This is where businesses will launch and monitor their issuance, create financial assets, manage data via the DSR, facilitate voting and allow for dividend payment; a beautifully simple process on a highly functional platform. The core services and share registration are also free – impressive stuff.

And that concludes my fundamental analysis of Own.


Technical

I have provided charts for both, CHX/BTC, and CHX/USD, as I believe they depict some very interesting things about Own’s price-history.

Most importantly, Own has never experienced a full market cycle; in fact, it recently begun its first bull cycle and it is certainly still experiencing that cycle.

CHX set an all-time high in February at 9000 satoshis and $0.34, having spent 130 days inside an accumulation range above all-time lows below 200 satoshis; a rise of over 5000%. It has since dropped off, now trading above resistance turned support around 5k satoshis. This decline has occurred on declining volume, which is the only reason why I think that this cycle may yet have some steam in it. That said, there is a clear possibility that the current bull cycle has ended and that prices may need to play out the latter stages of the cycle (through depression) before a new cycle can begin.

However, when you look at CHX/USD, we are trading at a very significant level; the initial high set in May 2018 around $0.16. This has become a level of resistance turned support, and there is a likelihood that this indeed the bottom of the bull cycle for CHX, where we may see a period of consolidation above $0.16 before a new bull cycle begins to tackle all-time highs.

A trade opportunity is present, as such, with an entry at current prices, a stop loss at $0.14 and a target of $0.35, giving 2.5 reward-to-risk. In truth, there are more profitable opportunities present for the traders in this market.*

*The above analysis is from 26th March, when I first drafted this report – price has since moved towards the resistance turned support around 4000 satoshis, offering a much more opportune entry.


Conclusion

This report is now over 5,000 words, and it is time to draw it to a close.

My final grading for Own is 9 out of 10.

Own scrapes a 9, despite its lack of engagement on Twitter and Facebook, primarily because of its palpable commitment to transparency and keeping users informed, and, of course, its fantastic array of working products and services in a growing and lucrative space.

Here, you can find my grading framework, for reference.

Lastly, here is a link to a Google Sheets file with any significant data from previous reports compiled for cross-comparative purposes. I will keep this updated as I continue to write these reports.

I hope this report has proved insightful and that you’ve enjoyed the read! Please do feel free to leave any questions in the Comments, and I’ll answer them as best I can.


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